2024 Election

[Superbone]

[Mori Chu]

This is kind of interesting. They look at the places where the Trump campaign is spending money on their ads, inferring that these are the states they are competing in and trying to win. It implies that they are targeting the electoral map below. While this very well could work out for Trump, it relies on him winning both Pennsylvania and Georgia, among other swingy states. It's a narrow path to victory.

[virtual9mm]

Rasmussen now has Harris up by +1.

[virtual9mm]

This is kind of interesting. They look at the places where the Trump campaign is spending money on their ads, inferring that these are the states they are competing in and trying to win. It implies that they are targeting the electoral map below. While this very well could work out for Trump, it relies on him winning both Pennsylvania and Georgia, among other swingy states. It's a narrow path to victory.

Attack him in Georgia and Pennsylvania

[Superbone]

This is kind of interesting. They look at the places where the Trump campaign is spending money on their ads, inferring that these are the states they are competing in and trying to win. It implies that they are targeting the electoral map below. While this very well could work out for Trump, it relies on him winning both Pennsylvania and Georgia, among other swingy states. It's a narrow path to victory.

Attack him in Georgia and Pennsylvania

Yep, beat him in the two states he's targeting and that should do it. Of course, he'll be preparing his election lies and there is zero doubt he'll be spouting them probably no matter the outcome.

[Cap]

According to 270 to Win (https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-co ... &year=2024), Harris has 20 combinations to win. 10 of them include PA. The rest all include GA and/or NC.

[Split T]

So it seems it might come down to 3 states…Trump needs NC, PA, and GA…if Kamala steals one of them she wins.

[Split T]

I would add Arizona, but it seems Arizona might not matter. It’s definitely in play for both candidates, but if the other swing states leaning blue stay that way(Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada), Arizona isn’t enough to get the Dems to 270 and isn’t enough to replace losing NC, GA, or PA for the Reps.

[Cap]

So it seems it might come down to 3 states…Trump needs NC, PA, and GA…if Kamala steals one of them she wins.

Not quite. If Trump wins all three he definitely wins, and if Harris wins all three she definitely wins, but splits can go either way. For example, Trump can win with MI, AZ, WI, and any one of PA/NC/GA.

[Cap]

Trump’s non-PA winning routes:

GA/NC and any of (AZ/MI, AZ/WI, MI/NV, MI/WI).
GA or NC and AZ/MI/WI

Harris’s non-PA winning routes:

GA/NC and any of (AZ/NV, AZ/WI, MI, NV/WI)
GA or NC and any of (AZ/MI/NV, AZ/MI/WI, MI/NV/WI)

Aside from one of those combos, PA decides the election.

(I might have missed a few possibilities, I’ll double-check this when I have a chance.)

[Split T]

So it seems it might come down to 3 states…Trump needs NC, PA, and GA…if Kamala steals one of them she wins.

Not quite. If Trump wins all three he definitely wins, and if Harris wins all three she definitely wins, but splits can go either way. For example, Trump can win with MI, AZ, WI, and any one of PA/NC/GA.

Ya I was just already putting MI/WI to Kamala…she has a bigger lead there in the polls and it seems Trump isn’t campaigning there. But if they are still in play there are other paths

[Mori Chu]

Some new senate polls.

[Mori Chu]

Nate Silver is more bullish on Trump's chance of winning than most of the other pollsters and analysts that come through my feed.

[virtual9mm]

Nate Silver is more bullish on Trump's chance of winning than most of the other pollsters and analysts that come through my feed.

Silver is better. But he cautions against reading too much into it, there is a variable for a convention bounce.

[Mori Chu]

More interesting senate polling. I've also seen polls that show Kamala within 2-3 points in Florida. But IMO the Dems shouldn't sink a ton of money into trying to win these big red states; it's enticing, but I think ultimately you'll waste resources there and end up losing anyway. Best to invest in the known swing states like PA, rust belt, AZ, NV, GA, NC.

[Mori Chu]

New NYT election poll has Trump ahead, 48-47. After a long string of polls showing Kamala in the lead, this one is sobering.

[Mori Chu]

Another poll from CBS of some swing states.

[Mori Chu]

So the Presidential debate is tonight. I'll post about it here; I may watch (some of) it live, though my kids may have something to say about that.

[Kryptonic]

So the Presidential debate is tonight. I'll post about it here; I may watch (some of) it live, though my kids may have something to say about that.

Just tell the kids this is Bluey's evil cousin whose really orange.

[TOO]

I will watch it while Hasanabi yells at Kamabla for not distancing herself from Bidenomics.