The US Economy

[Mori Chu]

So, are we in a recession? Some of the latest numbers are pretty grim.

[Indy]

I think you kind of have to pick a side (not you specifically, Marty). Inflation/Recession are two sides to a coin, although not exactly inverses. If inflation is getting too much, a recession brings that back down.

Although it is really weird to see hundreds of thousands of jobs being added quarter after quarter, but still be in a recession.

All I know is that when I do my monthly analysis of my retirement portfolio on August 1st, I will likely have 300-400k less than I did earlier this year.

[Mori Chu]

Strong jobs report. 528K new jobs. Unemployment rate drops to 3.5%, wages accelerate to 5.2% YOY. Economists had expected 25K new jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%. Even Fox News begrudgingly has to admit that it is good news, LOL.

[Indy]

Strong jobs report. 528K new jobs. Unemployment rate drops to 3.5%, wages accelerate to 5.2% YOY. Economists had expected 25K new jobs and the unemployment rate to hold steady at 3.6%. Even Fox News begrudgingly has to admit that it is good news, LOL.

250k were expected.

[Nodack]

I can’t believe FOX would ever admit something good happened under Biden. That person is probably fired by now.

[Mori Chu]

Lost in all the crazy news this week, some economic numbers came out today and it looks like inflation is capping out. Gas prices are down a bit. Things may be leveling off.

[Nodack]

And since June the stock market has been climbing.

[Nodack]

USA Pump Prices Post Longest Falling Streak Since 2015
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_p ... 4-article/
Gasoline prices in the US have fallen for 70 days straight, the longest down streak since January 2015.

[Mori Chu]

USA Pump Prices Post Longest Falling Streak Since 2015
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_p ... 4-article/
Gasoline prices in the US have fallen for 70 days straight, the longest down streak since January 2015.

I mean, I'm happy to see prices go down. But we need to get over this idea that the US President somehow has the magical power to dictate the world's petroleum prices. US federal policy has some effect, sure, but there is just so much more to it. And everybody should just get used to the fact that petroleum is going to become increasingly scarce in the future and that prices are going to go WAY up in the next 10-20 years. That will happen regardless of whether the President is a Republican or a Democrat. I just don't think it is a suitable thing to give the President praise or criticism for. (I generally feel the same way about the stock market, but that's another story.)

[Mori Chu]

Yesterday was a rough day for the ol' stock market.

[Nodack]

USA Pump Prices Post Longest Falling Streak Since 2015
https://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/usa_p ... 4-article/
Gasoline prices in the US have fallen for 70 days straight, the longest down streak since January 2015.

I mean, I'm happy to see prices go down. But we need to get over this idea that the US President somehow has the magical power to dictate the world's petroleum prices. US federal policy has some effect, sure, but there is just so much more to it. And everybody should just get used to the fact that petroleum is going to become increasingly scarce in the future and that prices are going to go WAY up in the next 10-20 years. That will happen regardless of whether the President is a Republican or a Democrat. I just don't think it is a suitable thing to give the President praise or criticism for. (I generally feel the same way about the stock market, but that's another story.)

In politics everything is fair game for praise or criticism. Gas prices go down? Dems will take credit and Cons will say Dems don’t have control over gas prices. Gas prices go up? Dems will say they have no control over it and Cons will blame them. A good economic report? Dems will take credit for it. Cons will say the figures are all fake. A bad economic report card? Cons will say the report is very accurate and shows Dems suck. It goes both ways.

Politics.

[Nodack]

The world economy is under a lot of stress including the US. This definitely will not help.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... ply-chain/
More than 115,000 rail workers are legally allowed to strike as of Friday, a move that would shut down the transport of food, fuel and other goods, likely damaging the nation’s strained supply chains and driving up prices.

[Mori Chu]

Not really about "the economy," but it's about money. Read this if you want to get mad. Look at how crooked our elected officials are, buying and selling stocks to personally enrich themselves by leveraging inside information they have about how their own actions will affect the markets. In some cases they made millions of dollars and even had 100% successful / positive investment rate, which is virtually unheard of. And yes, this one spans both political parties.

[Superbone]

You act like you're surprised.

[Mori Chu]

One of the many shitty things the GOP plans to do if they retake the House majority is to refuse to raise the US debt ceiling (which is a really stupid concept to begin with) unless Biden cuts Medicaid and Social Security.

[Nodack]

OPEC decided to lower output to raise gas prices even though the world is seriously struggling economically right now. US tax payers subsidize US oil makers so they can compete with OPEC? US oil companies are raking in record profits off right now as US tax payers struggle to pay their bills and put gas in their tanks? Not cool.


Oil companies rake in huge profits amid consumer squeeze
https://thehill.com/policy/3709759-oil- ... r-squeeze/

Exxon Mobil on Friday morning reported its highest earnings ever at $19.7 billion for the quarter, while Shell reported its second highest of $9.5 billion.

“The optics are pretty bad,” Kloza added. “Record profits … aren’t exactly being cheered by a population that says, hey, we need a break from inflation.”
Moreover, he said, “if you were to have a virtual map of what’s occurred so far in the month of October, which is outside the realm of the third quarter profits, the numbers aren’t just off the charts, they’re off the wall the charts are on.”

Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, argued that much of the actual consumer prices are outside oil companies’ control.
“They can decide to raise production or not, and if they raise production that lowers prices, but for now, oil company profits are a sign of the imbalances that exist in oil markets,” he said. “That is, everyone wants oil and refined products and there’s simply not enough to go around.”

[Mori Chu]

This didn't fit into any existing thread, so I'm just putting it here. Apparently all US flights were grounded today because of a computer system malfunction.

[Mori Chu]

Economic recovery.

[Nodack]

“The Environmental and Energy Study Institute found that the US government alone spends $20 billion every year on direct fossil fuel subsidies.”

Reuters
Exxon smashes Western oil majors' earnings record with $56 billion profit for 2022
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-sm ... 39797.html


Awesome! We should cut food stamps to poor people and raise subsidies for big oil to help them stay in the style they are accustomed to.

[Nodack]

New York investors snapping up Colorado River water rights, betting big on an increasingly scarce resource
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/new-york-i ... -resource/
The hedge fund, founded in 2005, says it invests exclusively in assets and companies that ensure water supply and quality. In 2021, its co-founder and president, Matthew Diserio, called water in the United States "a trillion-dollar market opportunity."

"I view these drought profiteers as vultures," Mueller said. "They're looking to make a lot of money off this public resource. Water in Colorado, water in the West, is your future. Without water you have no future."