The US Economy

[Mori Chu]

My wife works at Apple and gets some Apple stock. It's gone way up lately. That's good news for us. We will probably sell some of it just to lock in the profit and diversify our investments.

[Nodack]

Trump says he is going to drill drill drill to counter all the cutbacks in oil production Biden has done since becoming President. If you watch Republican news you are informed that Biden and Democrats have done everything in their power to shut down oil production in America. The truth is our oil production is at it’s highest output ever.

$3 per gallon gasoline is in sight amid record U.S. oil production
https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/gas-pr ... oday-chart

https://www.ft.com/content/3a1bbb09-863 ... eac536b938
American crude oil production reached a fresh all-time high of 13.2mn barrels a day in September, according to figures released last week, more than any other country and accounting for about one in eight barrels of global output.

The added volumes have outpaced official forecasts and called into question claims of a US oil industry constricted by Wall Street or environmental regulations. They are causing difficulties for the Opec+ oil cartel, which last week agreed to deepen cuts to its members’ own volumes in a bid to prop up faltering prices.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 023-12-04/
LONDON, Dec 4 (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil production set a record for the second month running in September, highlighting the challenge to Saudi Arabia and its OPEC⁺ partners as they cut their own production to boost prices.

Repeated OPEC⁺ output cuts since the fourth quarter of 2022 have thrown a lifeline to U.S. producers, averting a deeper slump in prices and conceding more market share to them.

[Nodack]

My wife works at Apple and gets some Apple stock. It's gone way up lately. That's good news for us. We will probably sell some of it just to lock in the profit and diversify our investments.

Apple has been a stock cash cow for decades. I keep waiting for the bubble to bust. It goes up and down but, overall it has gone way up over time. Apple bought my Chevy Volt.

Apple has gotten so big it’s almost overtaken France’s entire stock market
https://fortune.com/europe/2023/12/14/a ... ck-market/

[Superbone]

My wife works at Apple and gets some Apple stock. It's gone way up lately. That's good news for us. We will probably sell some of it just to lock in the profit and diversify our investments.

Apple has been a stock cash cow for decades. I keep waiting for the bubble to bust. It goes up and down but, overall it has gone way up over time. Apple bought my Chevy Volt.

Apple has gotten so big it’s almost overtaken France’s entire stock market
https://fortune.com/europe/2023/12/14/a ... ck-market/

Yep, one of the most profitable investments I've made. Wish I had bought a lot more! And not bought other individual stocks!

[Kryptonic]

My wife works at Apple and gets some Apple stock. It's gone way up lately. That's good news for us. We will probably sell some of it just to lock in the profit and diversify our investments.

Apple has been a stock cash cow for decades. I keep waiting for the bubble to bust. It goes up and down but, overall it has gone way up over time. Apple bought my Chevy Volt.

Apple has gotten so big it’s almost overtaken France’s entire stock market
https://fortune.com/europe/2023/12/14/a ... ck-market/

Yep, one of the most profitable investments I've made. Wish I had bought a lot more! And not bought other individual stocks!

Nvidia too

[Mori Chu]

A big challenge for Biden right now is that, though the economy and crime and other stats are on a positive trend, if you ask people, most people think they are getting worse.

[Nodack]

America may have done the impossible: Avoid a recession
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/economy/ ... index.html
Yet nearly two years into the Fed’s campaign to slow America’s economy, it may have done the impossible: rein in inflation without plunging us into a recession.

To be fair, practically no one is a fan of America’s economy right now, sinking President Joe Biden’s favorability ratings. But jobs are booming, consumers are still spending, and the situation could be a whole lot worse. America’s economy grew at an electric annualized rate of 5.2% last quarter, a stunning achievement considering the stress the Fed put on it.

If the Fed avoids a recession, its remarkable goal would have been accomplished with a combination of luck and ingenuity.

[Mori Chu]

More signs that the economy is strong: retail sales were up this Xmas season.

[Cap]

More signs that the economy is strong: retail sales were up this Xmas season.

But according to polls, most people think Biden has driven the economy straight into the crapper.

[In2ition]

More signs that the economy is strong: retail sales were up this Xmas season.

But according to polls, most people think Biden has driven the economy straight into the crapper.

It's mostly people that don't make more than $60K, don't have a mortgage paid off, and drive gas cars a distance to their jobs. If we don't fall into those categories, we may be blind to how the economy is performing in their perception.

I saw recently that someone that wants to buy the average priced home($430K) in the US, needs to be making more than $115K per yr to afford a mortgage now due to current interest rates. I have to be careful to not give my oldest son this type of news, as it's defeating to the younger generation. Hopefully, the interest rates will fall back down again, which would help a ton.

[Nodack]

Interest rates went up on purpose to fight off inflation. Inflation became a problem after Covid was tamed and demand skyrocketed without supply catching up. Inflation has been slowed to a crawl, supply has caught up and now they are talking about lowering interest rates again.

The younger generation needs to learn about these trends and use it to their benefit. This isn’t a new phenomenon. History definitely repeats itself. When the next recession hits and it will because they always do at some point, they will lower interest rates to almost nothing.

[Superbone]

More signs that the economy is strong: retail sales were up this Xmas season.

But according to polls, most people think Biden has driven the economy straight into the crapper.

It's mostly people that don't make more than $60K, don't have a mortgage paid off, and drive gas cars a distance to their jobs. If we don't fall into those categories, we may be blind to how the economy is performing in their perception.

I saw recently that someone that wants to buy the average priced home($430K) in the US, needs to be making more than $115K per yr to afford a mortgage now due to current interest rates. I have to be careful to not give my oldest son this type of news, as it's defeating to the younger generation. Hopefully, the interest rates will fall back down again, which would help a ton.

That makes sense. I feel sorry for young people as buying a house no longer seems to be achievable. But it's been that way for quite a while including during Trump's presidency.

[Cap]

When the next recession hits and it will because they always do at some point, they will lower interest rates to almost nothing.

When the economy is strong, mortgages are unaffordable because of high interest rates.

When the economy is weak, mortgages are unaffordable because you’re out of work.

[Superbone]

From the Morning Brew newsletter I get:

But few saw the vibecession coming…many Americans feel like the economy is faltering despite all the fancy indicators, which some experts blame on high interest payments on consumer debt and the lingering effects of inflation (along with relentless media coverage of them).

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... f=KkPzpZvz

[specialsauce]

Interest rates went up on purpose to fight off inflation. Inflation became a problem after Covid was tamed and demand skyrocketed without supply catching up. Inflation has been slowed to a crawl, supply has caught up and now they are talking about lowering interest rates again.

The younger generation needs to learn about these trends and use it to their benefit. This isn’t a new phenomenon. History definitely repeats itself. When the next recession hits and it will because they always do at some point, they will lower interest rates to almost nothing.

Except just because inflation has slowed doesn’t mean shit.

The cost of my services I pay for didn’t go back down now that inflation slowed. All the people that increased their rates didn’t just drop them back down.

The $4.50 salt for my water softener that is now $8 is still $8, it didn’t fall back to $4.50.

Prices doubled and never fell. They may have plateaued, but people didn’t just forget overnight what they were paying two years ago.

[specialsauce]

More signs that the economy is strong: retail sales were up this Xmas season.

But according to polls, most people think Biden has driven the economy straight into the crapper.

It's mostly people that don't make more than $60K, don't have a mortgage paid off, and drive gas cars a distance to their jobs. If we don't fall into those categories, we may be blind to how the economy is performing in their perception.

I saw recently that someone that wants to buy the average priced home($430K) in the US, needs to be making more than $115K per yr to afford a mortgage now due to current interest rates. I have to be careful to not give my oldest son this type of news, as it's defeating to the younger generation. Hopefully, the interest rates will fall back down again, which would help a ton.

That makes sense. I feel sorry for young people as buying a house no longer seems to be achievable. But it's been that way for quite a while including during Trump's presidency.

I got a 2.8% interest rate and my house cost half the price it is worth now just 4 years ago.

[Split T]

Ya I’m grateful I bought my condo when I did…bought in 2020, waited a year before it was built(luckily with price locked in). Value went up about 25% before I even moved in and now it’s up 60% in value.

My wife and I will need to buy a bigger place when the kiddos come and I’m not looking forward to that, but at least we’ve got some equity built up.

[Cap]

Ya I’m grateful I bought my condo when I did…bought in 2020, waited a year before it was built(luckily with price locked in). Value went up about 25% before I even moved in and now it’s up 60% in value.

My wife and I will need to buy a bigger place when the kiddos come and I’m not looking forward to that, but at least we’ve got some equity built up.

It’s OK. These days you can send the kids to work to earn the space they need.

[Nodack]

Bought our house for $280k. A couple of months later the recession hit and it was valued at $150k. Obama helped us and lowered our rate and got a 15 year loan much cheaper rate. We paid it off now. The recession ended and last year during the peak it was valued at over 500k. Now just under 500k. A recession could hit tomorrow and the bottom could drop out again or there could be another boom and prices soar. Welcome to real estate.

Buying a house was totally unachievable to me until I was over 30 and married. Not many young people can afford to buy a house until they get established with a good job and maybe a wife who works too. This is called reality. We can make a list of all the people we want to blame if we want. If it makes you feel better go ahead.

I am getting old. I have been around for a long time. I remember candy bars being 10 cents. I remember 40 cents a gallon for gas. People have been complaining about prices since there were people and it will always be the same. Life is tough. Tougher for some than others. Live within your means.

I spent most of the 80’s living in hotels on the road living on $200 a week for food. One time on the road we pooled our money together to buy some bread, bologna and cheese slices just to eat. I spent a lot of time after the road living in studio apartments. I didn’t blame anyone but me. I was a musician and only a small percentage of them are successful. The vast majority of the rest struggle or give up. No President came in and said “We need to guarantee musicians are all successful and make a lot of money in life”. I knew that wasn’t going to happen. No one was going to help me except me and I wasn’t going to spend all my time blaming others for my situation.

My situation now is good because I did something about it and made some good decisions. I went back to school. I invested what I could. I kept my credit cards low. I got married and her parents loaned us enough money to make a down payment on a house. I practiced my craft a lot. Took any gig that came up. My Dad died and left a little money that was immediately invested and never touched. I had my best year ever as a musician last year. 218 gigs. 40k. Most of you would laugh at that amount. I was ecstatic.

[In2ition]

I'm happy that things worked out for you, and you paid off your home before inflation and interest rates jumped up.

I also sounds like if certain things didn't fall your way, that you would be doing very differently and not doing what you love to do.

Honestly, not many people by percentage are quite as fortunate, but you also made sacrifices to help yourself.