Around the League: 2018 Offseason

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

O_Gardino wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:11 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:51 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:36 pm
Let me ask you this: is Warren better than Ariza? How much better than Ariza / Jackson / Bridges is he? My guess is that by the end of this season, we see that he's not that much better.

Beverly and Teodosic are much better than our young PGs right now, and next summer the cap space can be used to address actual needs.
I don't think that's the right way to look at it. Warren is better than Beverley or Teodosic and much younger. I'm not the biggest Warren fan and think we should look to move him, but I'm not moving him for 1 year of Beverley.

And the cap space that we'd clear isn't a reason for the trade. We'd have no problem just dumping Warren for free. He's not a bad contract.
His contract becomes a problem if he's the odd man out in our SF rotation, or if other teams believe he won't ever be a defender or shooter or stay healthy.
Wilson Chandler is a flawed player who got pushed out of the rotation in Denver, Philly still took on his 13 million dollar contract. Lots of teams have cap space next season and a few of them will strike out, I think they'd love to add a 20 point scorer.

Is there a chance Warren gets hurt and the contract looks worse a year from now? Sure, but that's a risk you take with any player. Could he get pushed out of the rotation because he's just not very good? I don't buy this one. He may not be a multi skilled player, but he's a very good scorer and isn't just going to lose that.

I think it's more likely Warren develops an improved 3pt stroke, helping him to become an elite scorer while Beverley misses 3/4 of the season.

So a 25 year old, elite scoring combo forward on a 12 million a year contract for 17 games of Patrick Beverley. We'd be complaining about this awful trade a decade from now.

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

Split T wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:21 am
O_Gardino wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:11 am
Split T wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 7:51 pm
O_Gardino wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 6:36 pm
Let me ask you this: is Warren better than Ariza? How much better than Ariza / Jackson / Bridges is he? My guess is that by the end of this season, we see that he's not that much better.

Beverly and Teodosic are much better than our young PGs right now, and next summer the cap space can be used to address actual needs.
I don't think that's the right way to look at it. Warren is better than Beverley or Teodosic and much younger. I'm not the biggest Warren fan and think we should look to move him, but I'm not moving him for 1 year of Beverley.

And the cap space that we'd clear isn't a reason for the trade. We'd have no problem just dumping Warren for free. He's not a bad contract.
His contract becomes a problem if he's the odd man out in our SF rotation, or if other teams believe he won't ever be a defender or shooter or stay healthy.
Wilson Chandler is a flawed player who got pushed out of the rotation in Denver, Philly still took on his 13 million dollar contract. Lots of teams have cap space next season and a few of them will strike out, I think they'd love to add a 20 point scorer.

Is there a chance Warren gets hurt and the contract looks worse a year from now? Sure, but that's a risk you take with any player. Could he get pushed out of the rotation because he's just not very good? I don't buy this one. He may not be a multi skilled player, but he's a very good scorer and isn't just going to lose that.

I think it's more likely Warren develops an improved 3pt stroke, helping him to become an elite scorer while Beverley misses 3/4 of the season.

So a 25 year old, elite scoring combo forward on a 12 million a year contract for 17 games of Patrick Beverley. We'd be complaining about this awful trade a decade from now.
Agreed on bolded point. But TJ is a guy that misses an average of 1/3rd of each year. (~53% his first two seasons, <80% his last two)

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

True Warren has had some health concerns. Although I think it's possible we've kept him out of more games then necessary due to tanking. Still, Beverley has more health concerns than Warren.

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In2ition
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by In2ition »

Split T wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:30 am
True Warren has had some health concerns. Although I think it's possible we've kept him out of more games then necessary due to tanking. Still, Beverley has more health concerns than Warren.
His head is something of an elbow magnet.
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O_Gardino
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by O_Gardino »

Sorry, I just don't think any teams out there view Warren as an Elite Scoring forward, and I really doubt he will score anywhere near 20 this season.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

O_Gardino wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 8:54 am
Sorry, I just don't think any teams out there view Warren as an Elite Scoring forward, and I really doubt he will score anywhere near 20 this season.
Why do you think his scoring will go down so much?

I think he will have the easiest time scoring of anyone on the team next year. I don't think he will be the biggest scorer, of course, but I think the number of seconds he touches the ball per made bucket will be the lowest in our rotation. He just moves so well without the ball, and scores at a rate higher than nearly every SF in the league from inside the 3.

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O_Gardino
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by O_Gardino »

I think his minutes will decrease quite a bit. He was at 33mpg last season, and we just aren't going to need those minutes from him.

I also expect him to get a lot fewer second chance points. We were near the top of the league in missed shots last season, and Warren is good on the offensive glass. There just aren't going to be as many opportunities for him.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

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specialsauce
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by specialsauce »

O_Gardino wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:34 am
I think his minutes will decrease quite a bit. He was at 33mpg last season, and we just aren't going to need those minutes from him.

I also expect him to get a lot fewer second chance points. We were near the top of the league in missed shots last season, and Warren is good on the offensive glass. There just aren't going to be as many opportunities for him.
I would agree. I think he falls to 12-15 ppg just because of the logjam at his position and increased talent on the team

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

He may drop in total numbers, but I bet his efficiency increases. He'll have better looks with the shooters we added and won't be asked to create as many difficult shots. The guy is a very good mid range guy, he's great in transition, he's great finishing at the rim, and he's a great offensive rebounder. He's really a 3 pt shot away of being a pretty elite scorer.

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ShelC
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by ShelC »

So a 25 year old, elite scoring combo forward on a 12 million a year contract
That's quite a description.

I'm not saying TJ is trash, I'm just saying teams aren't pining away for him nor will he be the centerpiece of any trade for a name player. Would I trade him for Beverly straight up? Probably not. Would I trade him just to clear his contract? Probably not. But if the right deal came along, I certainly wouldn't hesitate.

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specialsauce
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by specialsauce »

I see TJ as a sixth man of the year candidate long-term. I’m not trading him for anything that is less valuable than that player-wise.

I would however trade him for a mid-to-late lottery pick.

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Ring_Wanted
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Ring_Wanted »

TJ is already a proven asset and still has room to improve, which in my opinion will happen if he can be healthy consistently. Remember that he lost his rookie season because Hornacek wouldn't play rookies (I know it's not that simple) and he has not had continuity due to weird injuries. There is plenty to like about Warren, including his contract. We should be wise to realize that he is one of the very few known good things we have. Using him to acquire expiring guys with quesitonable health is not a sound way to make business.

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

specialsauce wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:19 am
I see TJ as a sixth man of the year candidate long-term. I’m not trading him for anything that is less valuable than that player-wise.

I would however trade him for a mid-to-late lottery pick.
It would have to be a great draft year AND he would have to be either injured again, or in the last year of his contract, for me to trade him for the 12th/13th pick in the draft.

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Indy
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Indy »

O_Gardino wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 10:34 am
I think his minutes will decrease quite a bit. He was at 33mpg last season, and we just aren't going to need those minutes from him.

I also expect him to get a lot fewer second chance points. We were near the top of the league in missed shots last season, and Warren is good on the offensive glass. There just aren't going to be as many opportunities for him.
Without a significant injury, I would be very surprised if he gets less than 25 mpg. And I think even at 25mpg he could be around 18 ppg. Again, I expect his efficiency to go up this year.

As to your point about the O-glass, if he is playing with Josh at all, there will be plenty of options from missed drives. :P

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specialsauce
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by specialsauce »

Indy wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 12:47 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:19 am
I see TJ as a sixth man of the year candidate long-term. I’m not trading him for anything that is less valuable than that player-wise.

I would however trade him for a mid-to-late lottery pick.
It would have to be a great draft year AND he would have to be either injured again, or in the last year of his contract, for me to trade him for the 12th/13th pick in the draft.
Really? So would you have traded him for the rights to SGA or Bridges? I would have given him up in a heartbeat over the Miami pick.

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Drewsprocket
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Drewsprocket »

A losing team stunts a player’s growth. Granted he could learn to extend his shot or play smarter on D. But on this team, he’s relegated to just trying to get buckets however he can on a team with no good primary ball handler, awful ball movement, and is easily manhandled by D. Oh and then add that he’s injured often. At this point we need pieces that fit.

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Ring_Wanted
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Ring_Wanted »

Drewsprocket wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:30 pm
At this point we need pieces that fit.
I hear you. But we also need people that can make 1/2 of their shots.

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Split T
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by Split T »

ShelC wrote:
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:15 am
So a 25 year old, elite scoring combo forward on a 12 million a year contract
That's quite a description.

I'm not saying TJ is trash, I'm just saying teams aren't pining away for him nor will he be the centerpiece of any trade for a name player. Would I trade him for Beverly straight up? Probably not. Would I trade him just to clear his contract? Probably not. But if the right deal came along, I certainly wouldn't hesitate.
Well, you took the statement out of context. That was under a hypothetical situation where Warren had developed a 3 pt shot.

And we're not talking about using him as the centerpiece of a major trade, we're talking about trading him for Beverley and as a salary dump. I don't know if there's anyone here that would hesitate in moving him for the right piece.

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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by bajanguy008 »

https://twitter.com/ESPNNBA/status/1043251340699480065

SUNS Fan from the Land of Sun, Sea and Sand ;)

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bajanguy008
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Re: Around the League: 2018 Offseason

Post by bajanguy008 »

Crazy situation....

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1043278308027367425

SUNS Fan from the Land of Sun, Sea and Sand ;)

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