2019 NBA Draft Thread

[The Bobster]

They NBA can only make changes through collective bargaining, but both the NBA and players association agree that the current system isn't working.

I get the impression that it is only adam silver, not the owners, who agree with the players on this. he's gonna get fired within 5 yrs after implementation of the new rules. as they say, get woke, go broke.

There's really no point in making a high school player enroll in college for a year so that a university can make money off him instead of him being paid. If the NBA doesn't think they're ready, set up a real minor league system, but it has to be agreed on my the union.

or they can go to europe or asia or the gleague.

Or colleges could just stick to their role as educational institutions. Why do we need big-time college athletics?

[SDC]

They NBA can only make changes through collective bargaining, but both the NBA and players association agree that the current system isn't working.

I get the impression that it is only adam silver, not the owners, who agree with the players on this. he's gonna get fired within 5 yrs after implementation of the new rules. as they say, get woke, go broke.

There's really no point in making a high school player enroll in college for a year so that a university can make money off him instead of him being paid. If the NBA doesn't think they're ready, set up a real minor league system, but it has to be agreed on my the union.

or they can go to europe or asia or the gleague.

Or colleges could just stick to their role as educational institutions. Why do we need big-time college athletics?

and they will do that if they were forced to pay college players for playing sports.

in the end, nobody forcing anybody to play for free.

[INFORMER]

The success rate of high school players drafted relative to their draft position is much higher than that of Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors, Seniors or Euros. In fact, the longer a player stays in college, the more likely they are to bust relative to their draft position.

I'm not sure that says anything. Most high schoolers that came out would have been top recruits in all of college basketball. When you look at the college players that have entered the NBA draft, it includes a lot of players that weren't even highly recruited. So it's a different talent pool, more diluted.

And of course the longer a player stays, the more likely they are to be a bust. But that is almost a non-sequitur. They aren't a bust because they stayed in college longer; they stayed in college longer because their NBA prospects were never high to begin with.

[Split T]

The success rate of high school players drafted relative to their draft position is much higher than that of Freshmen, Sophomores, Juniors, Seniors or Euros. In fact, the longer a player stays in college, the more likely they are to bust relative to their draft position.

I'm not sure that says anything. Most high schoolers that came out would have been top recruits in all of college basketball. When you look at the college players that have entered the NBA draft, it includes a lot of players that weren't even highly recruited. So it's a different talent pool, more diluted.

And of course the longer a player stays, the more likely they are to be a bust. But that is almost a non-sequitur. They aren't a bust because they stayed in college longer; they stayed in college longer because their NBA prospects were never high to begin with.

But he’s talking about them busting relative to their draft position. Just because a player stays longer in college shouldn’t make them more likely to bust. There is no rule saying you have to draft upperclassmen. The fact that upperclassmen are busting more often than underclassmen doesn’t help the argument that evaluators need more time to scout. In fact it seems to give players more opportunity to fool the evaluators into thinking they are good.

[INFORMER]

I think I'm getting lost in these general references to date and studies; I'm not seeing a basis for these numbers and comparisons.

And my point isn't necessarily that evaluators need more time; I think they just need better information. I don't think high school competition is enough of an evaluation tool. And just as a quick aside, can we stop saying there is a rule that "forces" kids to play college basketball? A draft prospect can take the year off to train, or go play professionally anywhere around the world except in the US.

Taking a step back, I don't think it is a crime against humanity that Karl-Anthony Towns had to wait one extra year to become a teenage millionaire. My primary interest is as an NBA fan, and more times than not, getting these guys into the league one year earlier doesn't improve the product on the floor and it doesn't help the team.

[Split T]

All fair points. In an ideal world most people would go play in college until they’re ready. It seems it’s only once every couple years that a player is ready for the nba out of high school. Having 12-15 guys declare for the draft out of high school isn’t good with the current set up we have. A lot of those guys won’t be productive their first few years and once they start to actually produce, their rookie deals are expiring and you have to throw them a big contract.

I’d be in favor of a system that allows you to not start counting years until they are actually playing in the nba. Not sure how you’d get that implemented, but say you draft some high schooler with the 20th pick that pays him 2 million as a rookie. If he stays in the g league, he still gets the 2 million, but he’d still be under contract for 4 more years, not 3 like he’d be today. You’d have to limit how long you can keep them in the g league postponing their rookie deal. I’d say 2 years max.

Gives high schoolers an alternative route to college that lets them get paid for playing basketball and protects the teams from wasting draft picks on players who won’t be ready for nba minutes during their rookie deals.

You could even make a rule where players are only eligible for the extension of their rookie deals if they are 18-20. That way a 22 year old guy who played 4 years of college can’t just get thrown into the g league for two years and get stuck on a super cheap deal throughout his prime.

[Mori Chu]

I think I'm getting lost in these general references to date and studies; I'm not seeing a basis for these numbers and comparisons.

And my point isn't necessarily that evaluators need more time; I think they just need better information. I don't think high school competition is enough of an evaluation tool. And just as a quick aside, can we stop saying there is a rule that "forces" kids to play college basketball? A draft prospect can take the year off to train, or go play professionally anywhere around the world except in the US.

Taking a step back, I don't think it is a crime against humanity that Karl-Anthony Towns had to wait one extra year to become a teenage millionaire. My primary interest is as an NBA fan, and more times than not, getting these guys into the league one year earlier doesn't improve the product on the floor and it doesn't help the team.

^ This. All of this.

[Indy]

I think I'm getting lost in these general references to date and studies; I'm not seeing a basis for these numbers and comparisons.

And my point isn't necessarily that evaluators need more time; I think they just need better information. I don't think high school competition is enough of an evaluation tool. And just as a quick aside, can we stop saying there is a rule that "forces" kids to play college basketball? A draft prospect can take the year off to train, or go play professionally anywhere around the world except in the US.

Taking a step back, I don't think it is a crime against humanity that Karl-Anthony Towns had to wait one extra year to become a teenage millionaire. My primary interest is as an NBA fan, and more times than not, getting these guys into the league one year earlier doesn't improve the product on the floor and it doesn't help the team.

^ This. All of this.

I am in awe of most things INF posts around here, because 2 years later almost all of it comes true and the people singing the praises of the 2016 draft and the great moves we made just seem silly.

But I can't agree with this, at all. I know he didn't mean it this way at all, but that same kind of argument was made for saying "separate but equal" was cool or that 'literacy tests' helped a democracy.

It *is* a crime against humanity for companies to collude to restrict the rights of adults to work in this country. That is what it comes down to for me. I realize that for some reason our government has given professional sports a legal pass to avoid anti-trust laws, but either way it isn't right. Everyone knows it was made so that the NCAA can keep making billions of dollars every year off of their workers, and never have to share a penny with them. When Amazon does it, they are the devil. When the NCAA does it, no problem. Blech.

[Cap]

I think I'm getting lost in these general references to date and studies; I'm not seeing a basis for these numbers and comparisons.

And my point isn't necessarily that evaluators need more time; I think they just need better information. I don't think high school competition is enough of an evaluation tool. And just as a quick aside, can we stop saying there is a rule that "forces" kids to play college basketball? A draft prospect can take the year off to train, or go play professionally anywhere around the world except in the US.

Taking a step back, I don't think it is a crime against humanity that Karl-Anthony Towns had to wait one extra year to become a teenage millionaire. My primary interest is as an NBA fan, and more times than not, getting these guys into the league one year earlier doesn't improve the product on the floor and it doesn't help the team.

^ This. All of this.

I am in awe of most things INF posts around here, because 2 years later almost all of it comes true and the people singing the praises of the 2016 draft and the great moves we made just seem silly.

But I can't agree with this, at all. I know he didn't mean it this way at all, but that same kind of argument was made for saying "separate but equal" was cool or that 'literacy tests' helped a democracy.

It *is* a crime against humanity for companies to collude to restrict the rights of adults to work in this country. That is what it comes down to for me. I realize that for some reason our government has given professional sports a legal pass to avoid anti-trust laws, but either way it isn't right. Everyone knows it was made so that the NCAA can keep making billions of dollars every year off of their workers, and never have to share a penny with them. When Amazon does it, they are the devil. When the NCAA does it, no problem. Blech.

Um, I think you may be stretching the definition of crime against humanity. Just a bit.

[INFORMER]

I also don't think this has to be about the NCAA. I don't think the NBA has to be charged with righting the inequities of college basketball.

Ultimately, the NBA is a business and has the right to set the qualifications for their applicants. Requiring additional experience other than high school athletics is no different to me than requiring a degree, certification, or a certain number of years of experience.

[BlaCkAdDa]

You're arguments around college rules could also apply to nba scaled rookie salaries and even the draft itself (in that it restricts where you can work) ... Not saying either is right or wrong.. But without rules the competition suffers and there is less to go round.

[BlaCkAdDa]

Back. To suns though... How many games can we win whilst still getting even odds on top pick (assuming others are mow actively tanking)
How low could we end up picking if we won out the season?

[Superbone]

Back. To suns though... How many games can we win whilst still getting even odds on top pick (assuming others are mow actively tanking)
How low could we end up picking if we won out the season?

All of our "competition" is in the East. We are currently 4 wins behind the Bulls whom if we surpassed would knock us out of a three way tie for the best odds.

[The Bobster]

You're arguments around college rules could also apply to nba scaled rookie salaries and even the draft itself (in that it restricts where you can work) ... Not saying either is right or wrong.. But without rules the competition suffers and there is less to go round.

All of these rules are issues that have to be settled through collective bargaining though - If they union didn't agree to a draft, rookie salary cap and minimum age limit there would certainly be antitrust lawsuits and the league wouldn't have a leg to stand on. (they lost their right to impose a minimum age unilaterally in 1971).

The NBA and players association are pretty much agreed upon the fact that the "one and done" rule is going away, but the league apparently wants to hold onto it as a bargaining chip in the next collective bargaining agreement.

What it comes down to is "without collective bargaining is it legal for the league to implement an age limit on players who want to declare for the college draft?" The answer is "No." If they think these young players are hurting the league they don't have to draft therm as long as they're not acting in collusion. But that isn't going to happen because these players include most of the better prospects are the younger players (of last year's top 20 picks 13 were freshman, 4 were sophomores, 2 were juniors, 0 were seniors, 1 was a 19-year-old European).

8 of the top 9 players drafted last year were freshman and the other was a 19-year-old Euro. The league is falling all over itself to draft these young players - and several (Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Young, Jackson, etc.) have shown that they're ready to be contributors their rookie year. Why should they be forced to play in the NCAA or overseas for a year?

[Xylus]

Back. To suns though... How many games can we win whilst still getting even odds on top pick (assuming others are mow actively tanking)
How low could we end up picking if we won out the season?

All of our "competition" is in the East. We are currently 4 wins behind the Bulls whom if we surpassed would knock us out of a three way tie for the best odds.

Even if we claw our way out of the Bottom 3, the odds of getting the top pick drop from 14% to 12.5%, so not a big difference. The biggest downside is you improve the odds of picking outside of the Top 5. A 4th-worst record has the following odds:

1st - 12.5%
2nd - 12.2%
3rd - 11.9%
4th - 11.5%
5th - 7.2%
6th - 25.7% (Yikes)
7th - 16.8% (Yikes)
8th - 2.2%

[JeremyG]

Back. To suns though... How many games can we win whilst still getting even odds on top pick (assuming others are mow actively tanking)
How low could we end up picking if we won out the season?

All of our "competition" is in the East. We are currently 4 wins behind the Bulls whom if we surpassed would knock us out of a three way tie for the best odds.

Even if we claw our way out of the Bottom 3, the odds of getting the top pick drop from 14% to 12.5%, so not a big difference. The biggest downside is you improve the odds of picking outside of the Top 5. A 4th-worst record has the following odds:

1st - 12.5%
2nd - 12.2%
3rd - 11.9%
4th - 11.5%
5th - 7.2%
6th - 25.7% (Yikes)
7th - 16.8% (Yikes)
8th - 2.2%

But if you’re in the Zion-or-trade-it camp (like me) it’s not as big of a deal. So I think we’ll be in pretty good shape no matter how many games we win.

[In2ition]

Do you guys think that a bottom 3 team is going to win the lottery this year? I believe that the odds are that it's going to be outside the bottom 3.

[JeremyG]

Do you guys think that a bottom 3 team is going to win the lottery this year? I believe that the odds are that it's going to be outside the bottom 3.

Yeah there’s a 58% chance of it being a team outside the bottom 3.

[Superbone]

Do you guys think that a bottom 3 team is going to win the lottery this year? I believe that the odds are that it's going to be outside the bottom 3.

Yeah there’s a 58% chance of it being a team outside the bottom 3.

And yet still better odds for the bottom three teams individually rather than outside the bottom three.

[Xylus]

Do you guys think that a bottom 3 team is going to win the lottery this year? I believe that the odds are that it's going to be outside the bottom 3.

Yeah there’s a 58% chance of it being a team outside the bottom 3.

But... a bottom 3 team has a greater chance of winning than a team outside the bottom 3. Mind-bender!