Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Thu May 21, 2020 4:38 pm

In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm
Nodack wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:48 pm
We do have some data. The flu kills about .1% and Covid kills at least 1%. At minimum it’s 10 X’s more deadly.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/
The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus — SARS-CoV-2 — that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-death.html
U.S. COVID-19 death rate is 1.3%, study finds

13Xs more deadly.
"The 1.3% rate calculation is based on cumulative deaths and detected cases across the United States, but it does not account for undetected cases, where a person is infected but shows few or no symptoms, according to researcher Anirban Basu.

If those cases were added into the equation, the overall death rate might drop closer to 1%, Basu said."

I read both reports that you linked. Here's the problem, we don't know what the infection rate is. Some believe it's already over 20% of the population, but many more are asymptomatic or even somehow immune to it.

The last part I bolded is just a guess by Basu, unfortunately. We do certainly know that the infection rate is much higher and easier to spread, due to the nature of it being infectious without symptoms.
Correct. Nobody really knows. It’s a crapshoot.

It’s totally reasonable to ask people in close encounters to wear masks and keep distance for a year until we can gather hard evidence over time. There’s just no way we learn everything we need in a few months of a brand new Illness. It takes time.

I had a nurse offended that her nail salon required her to wear a mask and threw a fit on Facebook about it. Seriously? The poor employee has to be at your feet, then go home to their family that you don’t know their health conditions. How is that a liberal or conservative issue?

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Thu May 21, 2020 4:39 pm

Nodack wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:37 pm
The only way to know is to test everybody and that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. I called my doctor about my situation and they said to self quarantine for two weeks and call if I get any symptoms. I asked about a test and they said no test unless you do get symptoms. I might try to go outside my doctor to get a test. I would rather get tested in a few days and know than self quarantine for two weeks only to find out I didn’t have it.

I got a call for a gig next week. It’s the first gig I have been offered since March 9. I was a little hesitant on taking it thinking it might not be safe but, now I can’t take it anyway and I am almost relieved.
Yeah, screw that. If you want to get tested, go get tested. You shouldn't have to wait 2 weeks to see if you have symptoms. There are plenty of Dr. offices that will test you, especially if you were exposed to someone that had it and was too much of an a-hole to stay away AND not wear a mask.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Thu May 21, 2020 4:42 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:38 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm
Nodack wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:48 pm
We do have some data. The flu kills about .1% and Covid kills at least 1%. At minimum it’s 10 X’s more deadly.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/
The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus — SARS-CoV-2 — that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-death.html
U.S. COVID-19 death rate is 1.3%, study finds

13Xs more deadly.
"The 1.3% rate calculation is based on cumulative deaths and detected cases across the United States, but it does not account for undetected cases, where a person is infected but shows few or no symptoms, according to researcher Anirban Basu.

If those cases were added into the equation, the overall death rate might drop closer to 1%, Basu said."

I read both reports that you linked. Here's the problem, we don't know what the infection rate is. Some believe it's already over 20% of the population, but many more are asymptomatic or even somehow immune to it.

The last part I bolded is just a guess by Basu, unfortunately. We do certainly know that the infection rate is much higher and easier to spread, due to the nature of it being infectious without symptoms.
Correct. Nobody really knows. It’s a crapshoot.

It’s totally reasonable to ask people in close encounters to wear masks and keep distance for a year until we can gather hard evidence over time. There’s just no way we learn everything we need in a few months of a brand new Illness. It takes time.

I had a nurse offended that her nail salon required her to wear a mask and threw a fit on Facebook about it. Seriously? The poor employee has to be at your feet, then go home to their family that you don’t know their health conditions. How is that a liberal or conservative issue?
You're right, this shouldn't be a left or right issue. It doesn't seem like it should be that big of deal to wear a mask out in public and practice social distancing for awhile until we get better data. Of course it's becoming political though, as seen in Michigan & NY and to the opposite Florida. Maybe there is something to this Vitamin D deficiency thing after all.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Thu May 21, 2020 4:49 pm

In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:42 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:38 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm
Nodack wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:48 pm
We do have some data. The flu kills about .1% and Covid kills at least 1%. At minimum it’s 10 X’s more deadly.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/
The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus — SARS-CoV-2 — that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-death.html
U.S. COVID-19 death rate is 1.3%, study finds

13Xs more deadly.
"The 1.3% rate calculation is based on cumulative deaths and detected cases across the United States, but it does not account for undetected cases, where a person is infected but shows few or no symptoms, according to researcher Anirban Basu.

If those cases were added into the equation, the overall death rate might drop closer to 1%, Basu said."

I read both reports that you linked. Here's the problem, we don't know what the infection rate is. Some believe it's already over 20% of the population, but many more are asymptomatic or even somehow immune to it.

The last part I bolded is just a guess by Basu, unfortunately. We do certainly know that the infection rate is much higher and easier to spread, due to the nature of it being infectious without symptoms.
Correct. Nobody really knows. It’s a crapshoot.

It’s totally reasonable to ask people in close encounters to wear masks and keep distance for a year until we can gather hard evidence over time. There’s just no way we learn everything we need in a few months of a brand new Illness. It takes time.

I had a nurse offended that her nail salon required her to wear a mask and threw a fit on Facebook about it. Seriously? The poor employee has to be at your feet, then go home to their family that you don’t know their health conditions. How is that a liberal or conservative issue?
You're right, this shouldn't be a left or right issue. It doesn't seem like it should be that big of deal to wear a mask out in public and practice social distancing for awhile until we get better data. Of course it's becoming political though, as seen in Michigan & NY and to the opposite Florida. Maybe there is something to this Vitamin D deficiency thing after all.
Lol vitamin D for all!

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Thu May 21, 2020 4:54 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:49 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:42 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:38 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 4:25 pm
Nodack wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:48 pm
We do have some data. The flu kills about .1% and Covid kills at least 1%. At minimum it’s 10 X’s more deadly.

https://www.washington.edu/news/2020/05 ... -symptoms/
The national rate of death among people infected with the novel coronavirus — SARS-CoV-2 — that causes COVID-19 and who show symptoms is 1.3%, the study found. The comparable rate of death for the seasonal flu is 0.1%.

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-covid-death.html
U.S. COVID-19 death rate is 1.3%, study finds

13Xs more deadly.
"The 1.3% rate calculation is based on cumulative deaths and detected cases across the United States, but it does not account for undetected cases, where a person is infected but shows few or no symptoms, according to researcher Anirban Basu.

If those cases were added into the equation, the overall death rate might drop closer to 1%, Basu said."

I read both reports that you linked. Here's the problem, we don't know what the infection rate is. Some believe it's already over 20% of the population, but many more are asymptomatic or even somehow immune to it.

The last part I bolded is just a guess by Basu, unfortunately. We do certainly know that the infection rate is much higher and easier to spread, due to the nature of it being infectious without symptoms.
Correct. Nobody really knows. It’s a crapshoot.

It’s totally reasonable to ask people in close encounters to wear masks and keep distance for a year until we can gather hard evidence over time. There’s just no way we learn everything we need in a few months of a brand new Illness. It takes time.

I had a nurse offended that her nail salon required her to wear a mask and threw a fit on Facebook about it. Seriously? The poor employee has to be at your feet, then go home to their family that you don’t know their health conditions. How is that a liberal or conservative issue?
You're right, this shouldn't be a left or right issue. It doesn't seem like it should be that big of deal to wear a mask out in public and practice social distancing for awhile until we get better data. Of course it's becoming political though, as seen in Michigan & NY and to the opposite Florida. Maybe there is something to this Vitamin D deficiency thing after all.
Lol vitamin D for all!
Haha, be careful Doc! Don't want to get poisoned by getting too much.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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Superbone
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm

In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:28 pm
Yeah, unfortunately we don't have data to know if it's actually orders of magnitude worse than influenza or any other illness in recent times in the US. Obviously, the symptoms and what happens if it really hits you is bad bad.
Don't we? Just by sheer number of deaths alone, I'd think. Unless you want to chalk it up to some freak coincidence.

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covi ... flu-deaths
"These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase," the researchers said.

"The ratios we present are more clinically consistent with frontline conditions than ratios that compare COVID-19 fatality counts and estimated seasonal influenza deaths," they wrote. "We infer that either the CDC's annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both."
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Fri May 22, 2020 5:56 am

Superbone wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:28 pm
Yeah, unfortunately we don't have data to know if it's actually orders of magnitude worse than influenza or any other illness in recent times in the US. Obviously, the symptoms and what happens if it really hits you is bad bad.
Don't we? Just by sheer number of deaths alone, I'd think. Unless you want to chalk it up to some freak coincidence.

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covi ... flu-deaths
"These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase," the researchers said.

"The ratios we present are more clinically consistent with frontline conditions than ratios that compare COVID-19 fatality counts and estimated seasonal influenza deaths," they wrote. "We infer that either the CDC's annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both."
Yes, we know it is more deadly. And the argument of "well we don't know how many people got it and didn't get tested so maybe it isn't worse than the flu" is invalid because we have the exact same situation with the flu. The flu death rate is calculated only based on those folks that tested positive for the flu. If we tested everyone for the flu every month during flu season, we would many more cases, which would lower the infected death rate. That doesn't prevent 20-50k people dying each flu season. Just like whether it is 3% or 0.1% doesn't lessen the 100k Americans dead in 3 months.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Fri May 22, 2020 8:28 am

Indy wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:56 am
Superbone wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:28 pm
Yeah, unfortunately we don't have data to know if it's actually orders of magnitude worse than influenza or any other illness in recent times in the US. Obviously, the symptoms and what happens if it really hits you is bad bad.
Don't we? Just by sheer number of deaths alone, I'd think. Unless you want to chalk it up to some freak coincidence.

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covi ... flu-deaths
"These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase," the researchers said.

"The ratios we present are more clinically consistent with frontline conditions than ratios that compare COVID-19 fatality counts and estimated seasonal influenza deaths," they wrote. "We infer that either the CDC's annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both."
Yes, we know it is more deadly. And the argument of "well we don't know how many people got it and didn't get tested so maybe it isn't worse than the flu" is invalid because we have the exact same situation with the flu. The flu death rate is calculated only based on those folks that tested positive for the flu. If we tested everyone for the flu every month during flu season, we would many more cases, which would lower the infected death rate. That doesn't prevent 20-50k people dying each flu season. Just like whether it is 3% or 0.1% doesn't lessen the 100k Americans dead in 3 months.
Well, it isn't the exact same situation with the flu. We know it's much more infectious and easily spread, so many more have potentially had it to a magnitude of '?'. I don't know the answer, and we should have seen a huge spike in Florida, since we also know now that the virus was spread across the country from people good people of NYC fleeing the city. A great number of them fled to Florida more than any other state. So it will be worth seeing what happens, as Florida seems to be completely wide open and the people there seem to have a devil may care attitude about it.

Yes, we've had a uptick in the number of deaths, when compared to normal expected numbers. It's clear that this is a large problem. The problem is that are we counting deaths by other means as COVID-19 deaths? Have we had a large decrease in deaths due to normally heart disease and other health problems, that prior to this we were confident in the numbers being relatively solid? Are we counting the deaths due to an uptick in depression over loss of jobs and suicide? There can be unintended consequences of measures that have been taken. Maybe not for you, but for many of Americans. I'm just not sure about the exact numbers and what is the exact risk and cost ratio.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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ShelC
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by ShelC » Fri May 22, 2020 8:55 am

good people of NYC fleeing the city. A great number of them fled to Florida more than any other state. So it will be worth seeing what happens, as Florida seems to be completely wide open and the people there seem to have a devil may care attitude about it.
Kinda feel like this was BS and more about DeSantis covering his ass for not shutting down FL earlier. More deflection and blaming NYers, which for Rs/right wingers is usually code for liberal elites. I know more NYers who went to Jersey, Westchester or Long Island to get out of the city.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020 ... fla-coron/
In late March, DeSantis said many New Yorkers, some likely sick with the virus, flocked to Florida to avoid New York’s stay-at-home order, which became effective March 22. The Tampa Bay Times reviewed flight data and did not find any major uptick in the number of flights going to Florida from the New York area after New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the order. On March 20, 158 flights from three New York City-area airports arrived to five Florida airports (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Orlando and Tampa). A week later, the number of flights declined to 58.
Florida is starting to see more cases and deaths, specifically in Palm Beach County which was the first to re-open about 10-11 days ago.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronaviru ... story.html

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Fri May 22, 2020 9:12 am

ShelC wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:55 am
good people of NYC fleeing the city. A great number of them fled to Florida more than any other state. So it will be worth seeing what happens, as Florida seems to be completely wide open and the people there seem to have a devil may care attitude about it.
Kinda feel like this was BS and more about DeSantis covering his ass for not shutting down FL earlier. More deflection and blaming NYers, which for Rs/right wingers is usually code for liberal elites. I know more NYers who went to Jersey, Westchester or Long Island to get out of the city.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2020 ... fla-coron/
In late March, DeSantis said many New Yorkers, some likely sick with the virus, flocked to Florida to avoid New York’s stay-at-home order, which became effective March 22. The Tampa Bay Times reviewed flight data and did not find any major uptick in the number of flights going to Florida from the New York area after New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the order. On March 20, 158 flights from three New York City-area airports arrived to five Florida airports (Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Palm Beach, Orlando and Tampa). A week later, the number of flights declined to 58.
Florida is starting to see more cases and deaths, specifically in Palm Beach County which was the first to re-open about 10-11 days ago.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronaviru ... story.html
I don't doubt that they also and in more numbers went to Jersey, Westchester or Long Island to get out of the city, but to discount that they also fled to other states, including a good number to FL seems odd. Do you find it odd that they didn't include the number of flights from FL to NY during this same time?

Seems that "experts" must be all kinds of conflicted.
https://www.businessinsider.com/travel- ... -us-2020-5
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/n ... break.html

The whole nation is keeping an eye on Florida and what happens. Does Palm Beach County have a large population of retirees, and more than other parts of FL?
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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ShelC
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by ShelC » Fri May 22, 2020 9:26 am

Yea Palm Beach is mostly retirees, which is why it was stupid for them to open up first.

I'm not discounting that people from the NE went down to Florida, but the assumption made by DeSantis was that they were flying down there in droves and were the ones bringing the virus down there when he had spring breakers filling the beaches and travel groups coming back from Europe with it. If NYers were bringing the virus down there back in March, you would've seen the spikes already.

And of course NY was a main thruway for the virus to spread because it's a transportation hub for the world. Short of locking down the 3 major airports in January, it was never not going to come thru the NYC area and move around.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Fri May 22, 2020 9:33 am

Yeah, it seems bad to open up Palm Beach first. I wonder what the thought process of that was?

They weren't just leaving in planes, I'm sure a lot of cars were also driving out of the city, but we don't have that data either. I don't think it's a wrong assumption that they came to FL more than any other state. That seems a pretty safe assumption.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Fri May 22, 2020 10:46 am

In2ition wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:28 am
Indy wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:56 am
Superbone wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:28 pm
Yeah, unfortunately we don't have data to know if it's actually orders of magnitude worse than influenza or any other illness in recent times in the US. Obviously, the symptoms and what happens if it really hits you is bad bad.
Don't we? Just by sheer number of deaths alone, I'd think. Unless you want to chalk it up to some freak coincidence.

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covi ... flu-deaths
"These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase," the researchers said.

"The ratios we present are more clinically consistent with frontline conditions than ratios that compare COVID-19 fatality counts and estimated seasonal influenza deaths," they wrote. "We infer that either the CDC's annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both."
Yes, we know it is more deadly. And the argument of "well we don't know how many people got it and didn't get tested so maybe it isn't worse than the flu" is invalid because we have the exact same situation with the flu. The flu death rate is calculated only based on those folks that tested positive for the flu. If we tested everyone for the flu every month during flu season, we would many more cases, which would lower the infected death rate. That doesn't prevent 20-50k people dying each flu season. Just like whether it is 3% or 0.1% doesn't lessen the 100k Americans dead in 3 months.
Well, it isn't the exact same situation with the flu. We know it's much more infectious and easily spread, so many more have potentially had it to a magnitude of '?'. I don't know the answer, and we should have seen a huge spike in Florida, since we also know now that the virus was spread across the country from people good people of NYC fleeing the city. A great number of them fled to Florida more than any other state. So it will be worth seeing what happens, as Florida seems to be completely wide open and the people there seem to have a devil may care attitude about it.

Yes, we've had a uptick in the number of deaths, when compared to normal expected numbers. It's clear that this is a large problem. The problem is that are we counting deaths by other means as COVID-19 deaths? Have we had a large decrease in deaths due to normally heart disease and other health problems, that prior to this we were confident in the numbers being relatively solid? Are we counting the deaths due to an uptick in depression over loss of jobs and suicide? There can be unintended consequences of measures that have been taken. Maybe not for you, but for many of Americans. I'm just not sure about the exact numbers and what is the exact risk and cost ratio.
I didn't understand this point. Are you saying that people are committing suicide and coroners are attributing it as a COVID death?

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Fri May 22, 2020 11:12 am

Indy wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 10:46 am
In2ition wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:28 am
Indy wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:56 am
Superbone wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 6:49 pm
In2ition wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 3:28 pm
Yeah, unfortunately we don't have data to know if it's actually orders of magnitude worse than influenza or any other illness in recent times in the US. Obviously, the symptoms and what happens if it really hits you is bad bad.
Don't we? Just by sheer number of deaths alone, I'd think. Unless you want to chalk it up to some freak coincidence.

https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/covi ... flu-deaths
"These statistics on counted deaths suggest that the number of COVID-19 deaths for the week ending April 21 was 9.5-fold to 44.1-fold greater than the peak week of counted influenza deaths during the past 7 influenza seasons in the US, with a 20.5-fold mean increase," the researchers said.

"The ratios we present are more clinically consistent with frontline conditions than ratios that compare COVID-19 fatality counts and estimated seasonal influenza deaths," they wrote. "We infer that either the CDC's annual estimates substantially overstate the actual number of deaths caused by influenza or that the current number of COVID-19 counted deaths substantially understates the actual number of deaths caused by SARS-CoV-2, or both."
Yes, we know it is more deadly. And the argument of "well we don't know how many people got it and didn't get tested so maybe it isn't worse than the flu" is invalid because we have the exact same situation with the flu. The flu death rate is calculated only based on those folks that tested positive for the flu. If we tested everyone for the flu every month during flu season, we would many more cases, which would lower the infected death rate. That doesn't prevent 20-50k people dying each flu season. Just like whether it is 3% or 0.1% doesn't lessen the 100k Americans dead in 3 months.
Well, it isn't the exact same situation with the flu. We know it's much more infectious and easily spread, so many more have potentially had it to a magnitude of '?'. I don't know the answer, and we should have seen a huge spike in Florida, since we also know now that the virus was spread across the country from people good people of NYC fleeing the city. A great number of them fled to Florida more than any other state. So it will be worth seeing what happens, as Florida seems to be completely wide open and the people there seem to have a devil may care attitude about it.

Yes, we've had a uptick in the number of deaths, when compared to normal expected numbers. It's clear that this is a large problem. The problem is that are we counting deaths by other means as COVID-19 deaths? Have we had a large decrease in deaths due to normally heart disease and other health problems, that prior to this we were confident in the numbers being relatively solid? Are we counting the deaths due to an uptick in depression over loss of jobs and suicide? There can be unintended consequences of measures that have been taken. Maybe not for you, but for many of Americans. I'm just not sure about the exact numbers and what is the exact risk and cost ratio.
I didn't understand this point. Are you saying that people are committing suicide and coroners are attributing it as a COVID death?
No, no, no, I'm not saying that. But should they be counted, as being an unintended consequence?
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Fri May 22, 2020 12:12 pm

got it. sorry misunderstood your original point. Should they be counted? Sure, all deaths should be counted. But I wouldn't count it all as a "we caused these deaths because we shut down the country as a result of a global pandemic." I think they should be counted as part of a global recession, where suicides always spike. This recession was coming either way. If we didn't shut down at all, we would be looking at millions of deaths, instead of the 250,000 or whatever the current estimate is.

The study yesterday showed that if we shut down 1 week sooner in the US, 36,000 fewer people would have died from COVID. 2 weeks would have meant +50,000 fewer based on community spread.

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Fri May 22, 2020 5:10 pm

The notion that we are counting deaths due to chronic conditions as COVID deaths simply because they test positive is asinine. That is coming from a group of people that have no idea what the fuck they’re talking about, medically speaking. I can explain further if wanted but I’ll just leave it at that. Absolute bullshit.

BigLewy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by BigLewy » Fri May 22, 2020 8:14 pm

specialsauce wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:10 pm
The notion that we are counting deaths due to chronic conditions as COVID deaths simply because they test positive is asinine. That is coming from a group of people that have no idea what the fuck they’re talking about, medically speaking. I can explain further if wanted but I’ll just leave it at that. Absolute bullshit.
Sauce-question for you since you appear to be a medical expert. I just got offered a new job yesterday and since it's a medical testing company, they asked if I would get blood drawn for a Covid antibody test before I start since the office is open. Not really sure what to believe since I see all sorts of conflicting information, but based on what you know, if someone did have Covid and now has a positive result for antibodies, are they fully immune, like when you get chicken pox as a kid and get it out of the way (at least during my childhood), or are you at least extremely unlikely to contract Covid again? Waiting on my results, but I do remember feeling a little off for a few days in mid-February, but not really thinking anything of it and am now wondering if I somehow caught it and was asymptomatic. My wife felt a little off around the same time as well, but nothing that would have ever made us call in sick.

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Fri May 22, 2020 8:47 pm

BigLewy wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:14 pm
specialsauce wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 5:10 pm
The notion that we are counting deaths due to chronic conditions as COVID deaths simply because they test positive is asinine. That is coming from a group of people that have no idea what the fuck they’re talking about, medically speaking. I can explain further if wanted but I’ll just leave it at that. Absolute bullshit.
Sauce-question for you since you appear to be a medical expert. I just got offered a new job yesterday and since it's a medical testing company, they asked if I would get blood drawn for a Covid antibody test before I start since the office is open. Not really sure what to believe since I see all sorts of conflicting information, but based on what you know, if someone did have Covid and now has a positive result for antibodies, are they fully immune, like when you get chicken pox as a kid and get it out of the way (at least during my childhood), or are you at least extremely unlikely to contract Covid again? Waiting on my results, but I do remember feeling a little off for a few days in mid-February, but not really thinking anything of it and am now wondering if I somehow caught it and was asymptomatic. My wife felt a little off around the same time as well, but nothing that would have ever made us call in sick.
Lol I’m an ER doc, I am by no means an expert of all of Medicine but certain topics (COVID being one) I do have more first-hand experience than most due to the nature of my specialty.

I would say that is a question the entire world is still seeking the answers to. The antibodies can falsely result positive by detecting antibodies to 4 other strains of coronavirus erroneously (common colds).

Also, the antibody testing is heavily dependent on prevalence (how common the illness is currently in that particular community). Inherently a test is imperfect and will therefore have false positives. If you’re in an area where it is not prevalent, then a random positive antibody test will very likely end up as a false positive, rather than an area like NYC where it’s heavily prevalent and you’re more inclined to believe the results.

Also, at this point in time we have no clue if the antibodies they are testing for are truly the correct neutralizing/immune defense providing antibodies. It’s one thing to detect antibodies, but are they effective? Unsure.

Finally, if you have the neutralizing antibodies, how much immunity does that provide and for how long? We know with the common cold strains we do not have lasting immunity. Our immunity wanes after 6 months- 1 year or so of catching the common cold strain of corona. So with COVID are we looking at lasting immunity of a year? A month? A decade? We’ll know more in the years to come but for right now anybody that pretends to definitively know is lying.

Also, I would not use the lack of antibodies as a means to rule OUT infection. Takes quite some time to develop antibodies. Cannot rely solely on that test

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Cap
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap » Sat May 23, 2020 6:41 am

specialsauce wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:47 pm
Finally, if you have the neutralizing antibodies, how much immunity does that provide and for how long? We know with the common cold strains we do not have lasting immunity. Our immunity wanes after 6 months- 1 year or so of catching the common cold strain of corona. So with COVID are we looking at lasting immunity of a year?
Would that mean that any vaccine would need to be taken annually?
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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 8:22 am

I have been self quarantining for three days now and feel fine. My doc said no test unless symptoms. My brother told me about free testing being done at Tempe Diablo stadium and I signed up and are getting tested this morning. Better than waiting two weeks to find out.

I was exposed are a hair place. I saw this today.

A hairstylist worked while symptomatic and exposed 91 people to coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/us/misso ... index.html
A hairstylist with coronavirus worked for eight days this month while symptomatic, exposing as many as 91 customers and coworkers in Missouri, health officials said.

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