2024 Election

[Kryptonic]

Yeah. Even if Kamala wins, knowing that so many people here actively want Trump and Trumpism makes me sad for our country.

When I break it down…. I can deal with having political differences but what is the saddest past is our inability to talk and work things out respectfully. The vitriol and hate is just not needed and doesn’t get anything done. Constant tit for tat. With trump I feel like he prefers to say the most bombastic crap because he knows any free press is good press for him. He turned his indictments and convictions into “lawfare” which is constantly used by his base and to his base he could never do anything wrong. He’s a saint.

[Nodack]

Fast forward to November. He’s going to lose and he’s going to say it was all fake and fraudulent. He will in code of course call for his base to turn violent. Some will and they will be put in jail. They will say Kamala is the worst President in the history of the US and it won’t matter. Democracy was saved and Trump has to worry about staying out of jail.

Putin will be even more bummed than Trump because under Trump Putin will be given the green light to conquer Ukraine without US support. Under Kamala Ukraine will get much support along with a United UN and Putin certainly won’t like that.

[Kryptonic]

You know the unfortunate part? If there was ever some mass election fraud that did over turn an election no one will believe it because of the shenanigans last time.

[Nodack]

The boy who cried wolf

[Mori Chu]

RFK has figured out to become popular and win the race! He's changing his running mate to the Hawk Tuah girl. /s

[Mori Chu]

Another new poll.

[Mori Chu]

Terrifying article from Marc Elias about everything Republicans are going to make it easier to challenge election results this November.

[virtual9mm]

Fast forward to November. He’s going to lose and he’s going to say it was all fake and fraudulent. He will in code of course call for his base to turn violent. Some will and they will be put in jail. They will say Kamala is the worst President in the history of the US and it won’t matter. Democracy was saved and Trump has to worry about staying out of jail.

Putin will be even more bummed than Trump because under Trump Putin will be given the green light to conquer Ukraine without US support. Under Kamala Ukraine will get much support along with a United UN and Putin certainly won’t like that.

Starting to look this way, still kind of a dark future but far less dark than one where Trump ends free and fair elections once and for all. More like bright skies with a few nasty, towering, dark thunderstorms.

[virtual9mm]

Another new poll.

Looks about right to me. The past 10 days have been among the craziest in recent political memory, with the initial rise of Trump and Jan 6th being the only ones higher on my list. Perfect execution from one side, blunders galore on the other. Kamala can't possibly keep this up but has the VP pick and convention bounce to help her out still. By the end of all of this, I can see Kamala +5.

[Mori Chu]

Jon Stewart weighs in on the attempted attacks on Kamala. Enjoyable as always.

[Mori Chu]

A new Pennsylvania poll has Kamala at +4. This is big news for her. But, it seems to have a small sample size, isn't one of the biggest pollsters, etc. Standard disclaimer. I know that PA is one of the most important "tipping point" states to get to 270 EVs for both candidates.

[Mori Chu]

More new polling.

[virtual9mm]

More new polling.

Small sample in each state but if results hold up...wow. And aggregated, they are all trending in the same direction.

The Michigan and Pennsylvania results look like outliers.

[Mori Chu]

Yeah that MI result looks too high, and the PA result looks too low. But the trend lines are all going way up for the blue lines.

[Mori Chu]

Nate Silver currently rates the 2024 race as a "toss-up." Too early for Dems to celebrate, but, it's nothing short of a miracle given where Biden was just a few weeks ago.

[Cap]

Today for the first time, Harris is ahead of Trump on PredictIt.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election

Market is kinda weird right now. You can buy a No on Harris for 47¢ and a No on Trump for 51¢, so you can buy both for 98¢ and get back a dollar. Of course, all that gets you is 2% interest for the next three months, so it’s not a very exciting investment.

[Nodack]

Thank you Trump for being you….

[Cap]

Hey, while Harris is leading Trump 54-50 on PredictIt, Trump is leading 54-44 on Polymarket. Maybe an arbitrage opportunity.

Buy No Harris on PredctIt for 47¢ and No Trump on Polymarket also for 47¢. Total 94¢. 6% in three months is pretty good!

[Mori Chu]

You'll lose all your money in November when RFK wins, though!

[Cap]

You'll lose all your money in November when RFK wins, though!

I’m talking about buying No’s. If they both lose, both bets pay off and your 94¢ returns $2.