A rather long article I found well written. All the chess pieces moving behind the scenes and what ifs. Posted some highlights.
Mixed signals from Ukraine’s president and his aides leave West confused about his end game
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/mi ... uxbndlbing
The mounting death toll in Ukraine has forced President Volodymyr Zelensky to consider concessions to Russia in order to bring an end to the devastating conflict, but the specific elements of any peace deal his government may be discussing with Moscow remain a mystery to Western leaders, said U.S. and European officials.
The secretive rounds of meetings between Russian and Ukrainian negotiators could hold the key to ending the conflict but also carry broader implications for European security depending on how the warring parties settle their differences. If Russian President Vladimir Putin can use military force to compel political change in Ukraine, he could use the same tactic elsewhere, U.S. and European officials fear.
The prospects of a near-term deal look bleak, diplomats say, but mixed signals from Zelensky about how close he is to striking an agreement have only heightened anxiety about the trajectory of the negotiations.
Russia has sought to pummel Ukraine into submission through artillery barrages, cruise missile strikes and a severing of supply routes that have prompted a humanitarian disaster and forced more than 3 million people to flee the country.
Zelensky, however, has remained defiant, saying his country wants peace — but not at any cost.
Zelensky will have to sell any peace deal to his own people — a tricky task if he is forced to concede too much. He has been a wildly popular wartime president, but he was an unpopular peacetime one. And Ukraine’s westward ambitions have only been strengthened by Russia’s assault. Before February, many residents of cities like Kharkiv were sympathetic to Russia. Now much of the city has been reduced to rubble, and pro-Russian voices have turned into fiercely pro-Kyiv ones.
“If at the end of this, Putin comes away with anything but a clearly defined loss for him, that would destabilize European and international security unlike anything we’ve seen since the days of the Second World War,” said Jonatan Vseviov, the secretary general of the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
But the desire to have Putin feel defeated could also make a middle-ground compromise impossible, officials acknowledged, spurring the Russian leader to keep fighting.
The other challenge, Riabchyn said, is that Zelensky has proved so powerful a wartime communicator that Ukrainians are united behind him, with high morale and a willingness to keep fighting. A deal that seems like a defeat might not be acceptable to Ukrainian society.
“Ukrainians believe we are winning this war, so they might not accept painful compromises,” said Riabchyn, who now advises the government. “They might feel this is a betrayal. Zelensky raised the aspiration lines very high.”
For now, U.S. and European officials say they do not see signs that Russia is stopping its attack. One key measure, officials said, was whether Russian troops were digging defensive lines to solidify control of the territory they have captured. That hasn’t started yet, signifying a likely intent to keep pushing forward, two defense officials said.
“Russians are now making this impression that there is progress with negotiations for a very obvious reason: they don’t want the West to impose tougher sanctions.”
Ultimately, what Ukraine will agree to, lies with Zelensky because of the way he has emerged as a figure of unity.
“It’s Zelensky who decides,” he said. “It’s about the spirit of a nation. Thousands of Ukrainians are dying. He’s a wartime leader and it’s a huge responsibility.”