Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:I don't think I have posted my predictions for regular season standings yet. Here's a quick rundown of my best guesses:
East
1. Cleveland
2. Boston
3. Toronto
4. Atlanta
5. Indiana
6. Detroit
7. Orlando
8. Milwaukee
9. Charlotte
10. New York
11. Washington
12. Chicago
13. Miami
14. Philadelphia
15. Brooklyn
West
1. Golden State
2. San Antonio
3. LA Clippers
4. Houston
5. Utah
6. Portland
7. Memphis
8. Minnesota
9. Denver
10. Oklahoma City
11. New Orleans
12. Phoenix
13. Sacramento
14. Dallas
15. LA Lakers
A few details and comments on my predictions, now that I have more time:
EAST:
Boston seems like the clear #2 in the East to me. They added Horford, have a great coach/system, and they just seem deep and balanced.
I don't really like Toronto, but I want to give them the #3 in the East by default. They always seem to quietly have strong regular season records, and they've kept most of their core (sans Biyombo) intact.
After that it gets a lot murkier for me. I put Atlanta at #4 because I think Dwight will have a comeback year. I put Indy at #5 because Paul George is a monster. After that we start getting into East teams I don't like very well and don't have a strong sense of. The #6 for Detroit is mostly a nod of respect to SVG and Drummond, but I think their team has a lot of exploitable flaws and could see them dropping. Orlando at #7 has a ton of size and athleticism, kind of like Milwaukee, but I don't know if they have enough shooting or point guard skill to be a good team. I'm not at all impressed by the squads the Knicks and Bulls have put together, especially Chicago. I don't have a good read on Charlotte at all and am mostly guessing on my placement of them. As for Miami, they seem to be starting a rebuild and actively looking to dump assets and make trades. Philly has great young talent (go Embiid!) but probably won't be able to translate it into wins, and Brooklyn is just a walking nightmare.
WEST:
Golden State is going to be frighteningly good. I don't know exactly how many games they will win, because they may try to rest a bit more than last year if they've learned anything. But they can probably sleepwalk their way into about 65-66 wins despite resting guys, which is scary.
I think the Spurs are the clear #2. They lose the elderly Duncan but pick up Pau Gasol, who probably gives them a similar amount of contribution or more. The only real concern there is the latest rumors that LMA is mad about not being "the man." That's not very Spurs-y. Could lead to drama and struggles if they don't take care of it. Hmm.
I put the Clips at #3 due to all the vets they have, the immense talent of CP3 and Blake, the fact that they've kept the same core of players and coach together for several years. I think this may finally be the year that they are in the WCF.
I don't think there is a consensus #4 team in the West, but I think that the Rockets are due to bounce back from a very disappointing last year. I bet D'Antoni will get them running and gunning and leading the league in scoring. I expect crazy numbers and MVP consideration for Harden.
I put Utah at #5 because when you look at their roster, they made really smart and crafty additions of veterans (George Hill, Joe Johnson) to their young core. They also get Exum back, and he could be good. I just really like the overall roster composition here. A bit raw and inexperienced and they haven't been together long, but this feels solidly like a playoff team to me.
The next four, Portland-Memphis-Minny-Denver, I could kind of shuffle the order of these into any ordering and be okay with it. Don't have as good a feel for them. I gave Portland the edge due to keeping most of their guys together longer. They have a bunch of "Who he play fo'?" type of everyman guys, but it's a balanced and talented roster overall. Love their backcourt of Lillard/McCollum; like the Ezeli addition and the Ezeli/Leonard center rotation; and they have nice hard-working guys at the 3-4 like Aminu and Harkless. Kind of a sneaky good roster that doesn't jump out at you but will win a lot of games. I put Memphis at #7 out of respect because of all the veterans, but I could see them slipping out of the playoffs.
I gave Minny the #8 seed because they just have such crazy young talent with KAT and Wiggins and the others. Would put them even higher than #8 but I'm too scared; they have the talent where they could be like a 4-5 seed if everything came together. Really interested to see how long it takes them to bench or trade Rubio. (Pleeeeeease McD, trade for tricky Ricky!)
I like a lot of Denver's players and think they will be fun to watch, but I don't think it will translate into a playoff team. I think OKC will be a train wreck with Westbrook taking 40 shots a game and shooting them to loss after loss. Can't wait to watch them fail. I don't have a strong sense of the New Orleans Pelicans; love Anthony Davis but dislike most of the rest of the roster, and am worried about injury issues.
I put our beloved Suns at #12. I could see us higher than that, but I just want to have low/modest expectations this year and not be disappointed if we lose a lot of games. I'm tired of the emotional roller coaster of "We should be competing for a playoff spot!" only to watch us fail at it. Play the young kids; don't worry about the record.
The last three teams are all train wrecks IMO. I think this is the year that the Mavs really fall off. I hate their pieces and don't think Dirk can give them much any more. I put the Lakers last, which is probably wrong; you have to figure that the 1-2 punch of losing Kobe and losing Byron Scott will lead them to a better season than last year. I probably should have put the Lakers at #12-13 but I am probably blinded by my hate for them.
I am apparently not nearly as high on the Pacers as others seem to be.