NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League

[Mori Chu]

Grantland's Zack Lowe broke a story about Adam Silver proposing a new lottery system to the league's competition committee:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-l ... is-coming/

Pretty interesting. What do you guys think?

[Gladiator]

At first glance I think it's ok. I like the equal odds for teams with the worst odds, but would have kept the odds for teams with the best record a bit lower. I don't like the wheel idea at all, so would rather this for sure.

[JCSunsfan]

That's fine, just add a couple of things. Traded pick protections can only apply to pre-lottery standing, not post-lottery standing.

No team can have the #1 pick more than once in a decade (or 8 years or something like that). If they win it again, they slide to #2.

[Mori Chu]

I like the flattening of the odds a lot, and I also like putting more (but not all) of the picks into the lottery rather than just picks 1-3.

[Mori Chu]

At first glance I think it's ok. I like the equal odds for teams with the worst odds, but would have kept the odds for teams with the best record a bit lower. I don't like the wheel idea at all, so would rather this for sure.

I agree that the wheel sucks. That idea, I just never saw the appeal in it; too complicated and doesn't actually accomplish any of the goals that the existing lottery accomplishes.

[Mori Chu]

No team can have the #1 pick more than once in a decade (or 8 years or something like that). If they win it again, they slide to #2.

I might support that if it were shorter. 4-5 years, maybe.

[The Bobster]

Time to shitcan the lottery and just go back to drafting by inverse record (and possibly a coin flip). You're always going to have accusations of tanking, so ignore them and go with the fairest system.

[TOO]

Time to shitcan the lottery and just go back to drafting by inverse record (and possibly a coin flip). You're always going to have accusations of tanking, so ignore them and go with the fairest system.

Yep, the NFL does it right.

[carey]

I honestly don't care. The Suns will always get fucked at the lottery so I don't give a shit what system they use.

[TOO]

I honestly don't care. The Suns will always get fucked at the lottery so I don't give a shit what system they use.

cranky pants

[SDC]

the reform i'd like to see is:

1) bottom 17 teams get equal chances at the top 4 picks.

[Ring_Wanted]

I'd tweak the system with the goal of balancing out the odds, but also reflecting the regular season as accurately as possible. I'd do something like this:



1.- Before anything, expand the lottery to top5.

2.- Then, in terms of lottery seeding, I'd implement a pondered system that takes into account your fluctuation during the regular season: divide the season in X segments and adjust the final standings accordingly, just for lotto purposes, of course. This would disrupt sinking phenoms like GSW because past certain point, it is too late to make a definitive impact.

3.- Set 4 asymmetric tiers (3-5-6-8 teams) to distribute odds, including #8-5 playoff teams. That way you won't have lower seeds looking to drop out, and bubble teams actually have an incentive to win. #4 teams could try to finish 5th, but they'd lose home court in the playoffs.

The tiers would be:
A.- bottom 3 teams,
B.- teams #4-8
C.- teams #9-14
D.- teams #15-22


4.- Finally, reduce the gap between the extremes. 25% vs 0.5% is brutally punitive against teams that although mediocre, actually tried to win, while favoring too much teams that either didn't try from the beginning or gave up. Injury is imponderable.

So since we have 4 tiers, that would mean 20% odds each, with the folowing specific teams odds: ~3% / ~4.1% / 5% / ~8.3%. But I think that's too close, so I'd reduce the playoff tier share to 20%, and the 5% excess would go to tiers A and B.

The team odds would be then
Tier A.- ~9%
Tier B.- 5.5%
Tier C.- ~4%
Tier D.- 2.5%


5.- Run the lottery for numbers 5 pick and the drawn team's odds are divided among the remaining teams for the following pick so it doesn't get cumulatively skewed.


I think something in this mold would mean still a weighted system that shows the difference between teams but where losing gets way more discouraged than today, and it would be easily adjustable to react against undesirable strategies.

[Ring_Wanted]

Speaking of changes, did you catch this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html

The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation’s gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.

We've discussed this before, and I'd love to see such tournament.

[SDC]

Speaking of changes, did you catch this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html

The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation’s gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.

We've discussed this before, and I'd love to see such tournament.

who cares about the NBA equivalent of the FA Cup?

[SDC]

the reform i'd like to see is:

1) bottom 17 teams get equal chances at the top 4 picks.

2) the first round (1st vs 8th) and (2nd vs 7th) should be a best of six (format: H-H-A-A-H-H). the top seed needs only to beat the 7th/8th seed 3 times, while the latter needs to beat the top 1-2 seeds 4 times. let's further give additional incentives for teams to get the best record by giving them an easier path to the finals. once we are in the conference semifinals, all the matchups go back to best of 7.

[djy2j]

Carey's right. The Suns ALWAYS get fucked in the lottery. Cleveland has had 3 out of the last 4 #1 picks and the Suns haven't ever had one in what, 40 years?

[Mori Chu]

I think that midseason tournament sounds kind of weird and lame. It could be neat, but, what's the incentive to do well in it? You'd need to really give the winner something special like a guaranteed playoff spot or something of that nature for them to be willing to put their health on the line.

[The Bobster]

I think that midseason tournament sounds kind of weird and lame. It could be neat, but, what's the incentive to do well in it? You'd need to really give the winner something special like a guaranteed playoff spot or something of that nature for them to be willing to put their health on the line.

Exactly - unless they make it something significant you're going to see players half-assing it like they do in the all-star game.

Nobody wants to get hurt in a pointless in-season exhibition.

[INFORMER]

Time to shitcan the lottery and just go back to drafting by inverse record (and possibly a coin flip). You're always going to have accusations of tanking, so ignore them and go with the fairest system.

No thanks. I like some uncertainty and element of chance in the draft order. I like the proposal.

Zach Lowe started speculating about all the potential problems with the proposal, but honestly, it's much ado about nothing. He speculates about potential tanking scenarios, but we already have that happening. And who cares about the teams that have traded their picks already. Their loss. Just approve it already and have go into effect next season.

The wheel idea was terrible.

[sunset rubdown]

Speaking of changes, did you catch this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html

The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation’s gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.

We've discussed this before, and I'd love to see such tournament.

Yep, some kind of Cup competition like in soccer/football here in Europe. That would be interesting.