NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Grantland's Zack Lowe broke a story about Adam Silver proposing a new lottery system to the league's competition committee:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-l ... is-coming/
Pretty interesting. What do you guys think?
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nba-l ... is-coming/
Pretty interesting. What do you guys think?
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
At first glance I think it's ok. I like the equal odds for teams with the worst odds, but would have kept the odds for teams with the best record a bit lower. I don't like the wheel idea at all, so would rather this for sure.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
That's fine, just add a couple of things. Traded pick protections can only apply to pre-lottery standing, not post-lottery standing.
No team can have the #1 pick more than once in a decade (or 8 years or something like that). If they win it again, they slide to #2.
No team can have the #1 pick more than once in a decade (or 8 years or something like that). If they win it again, they slide to #2.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
I like the flattening of the odds a lot, and I also like putting more (but not all) of the picks into the lottery rather than just picks 1-3.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
I agree that the wheel sucks. That idea, I just never saw the appeal in it; too complicated and doesn't actually accomplish any of the goals that the existing lottery accomplishes.Gladiator wrote:At first glance I think it's ok. I like the equal odds for teams with the worst odds, but would have kept the odds for teams with the best record a bit lower. I don't like the wheel idea at all, so would rather this for sure.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
I might support that if it were shorter. 4-5 years, maybe.JCSunsfan wrote:No team can have the #1 pick more than once in a decade (or 8 years or something like that). If they win it again, they slide to #2.
- The Bobster
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Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Time to shitcan the lottery and just go back to drafting by inverse record (and possibly a coin flip). You're always going to have accusations of tanking, so ignore them and go with the fairest system.
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Available from Scarecrow Press at - https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780810890695
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Yep, the NFL does it right.The Bobster wrote:Time to shitcan the lottery and just go back to drafting by inverse record (and possibly a coin flip). You're always going to have accusations of tanking, so ignore them and go with the fairest system.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
I honestly don't care. The Suns will always get fucked at the lottery so I don't give a shit what system they use.
Go Suns!
Og Snus!
Og Snus!
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
cranky pantscarey wrote:I honestly don't care. The Suns will always get fucked at the lottery so I don't give a shit what system they use.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
the reform i'd like to see is:
1) bottom 17 teams get equal chances at the top 4 picks.
1) bottom 17 teams get equal chances at the top 4 picks.
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Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
I'd tweak the system with the goal of balancing out the odds, but also reflecting the regular season as accurately as possible. I'd do something like this:
1.- Before anything, expand the lottery to top5.
2.- Then, in terms of lottery seeding, I'd implement a pondered system that takes into account your fluctuation during the regular season: divide the season in X segments and adjust the final standings accordingly, just for lotto purposes, of course. This would disrupt sinking phenoms like GSW because past certain point, it is too late to make a definitive impact.
3.- Set 4 asymmetric tiers (3-5-6-8 teams) to distribute odds, including #8-5 playoff teams. That way you won't have lower seeds looking to drop out, and bubble teams actually have an incentive to win. #4 teams could try to finish 5th, but they'd lose home court in the playoffs.
The tiers would be:
A.- bottom 3 teams,
B.- teams #4-8
C.- teams #9-14
D.- teams #15-22
4.- Finally, reduce the gap between the extremes. 25% vs 0.5% is brutally punitive against teams that although mediocre, actually tried to win, while favoring too much teams that either didn't try from the beginning or gave up. Injury is imponderable.
So since we have 4 tiers, that would mean 20% odds each, with the folowing specific teams odds: ~3% / ~4.1% / 5% / ~8.3%. But I think that's too close, so I'd reduce the playoff tier share to 20%, and the 5% excess would go to tiers A and B.
The team odds would be then
Tier A.- ~9%
Tier B.- 5.5%
Tier C.- ~4%
Tier D.- 2.5%
5.- Run the lottery for numbers 5 pick and the drawn team's odds are divided among the remaining teams for the following pick so it doesn't get cumulatively skewed.
I think something in this mold would mean still a weighted system that shows the difference between teams but where losing gets way more discouraged than today, and it would be easily adjustable to react against undesirable strategies.
1.- Before anything, expand the lottery to top5.
2.- Then, in terms of lottery seeding, I'd implement a pondered system that takes into account your fluctuation during the regular season: divide the season in X segments and adjust the final standings accordingly, just for lotto purposes, of course. This would disrupt sinking phenoms like GSW because past certain point, it is too late to make a definitive impact.
3.- Set 4 asymmetric tiers (3-5-6-8 teams) to distribute odds, including #8-5 playoff teams. That way you won't have lower seeds looking to drop out, and bubble teams actually have an incentive to win. #4 teams could try to finish 5th, but they'd lose home court in the playoffs.
The tiers would be:
A.- bottom 3 teams,
B.- teams #4-8
C.- teams #9-14
D.- teams #15-22
4.- Finally, reduce the gap between the extremes. 25% vs 0.5% is brutally punitive against teams that although mediocre, actually tried to win, while favoring too much teams that either didn't try from the beginning or gave up. Injury is imponderable.
So since we have 4 tiers, that would mean 20% odds each, with the folowing specific teams odds: ~3% / ~4.1% / 5% / ~8.3%. But I think that's too close, so I'd reduce the playoff tier share to 20%, and the 5% excess would go to tiers A and B.
The team odds would be then
Tier A.- ~9%
Tier B.- 5.5%
Tier C.- ~4%
Tier D.- 2.5%
5.- Run the lottery for numbers 5 pick and the drawn team's odds are divided among the remaining teams for the following pick so it doesn't get cumulatively skewed.
I think something in this mold would mean still a weighted system that shows the difference between teams but where losing gets way more discouraged than today, and it would be easily adjustable to react against undesirable strategies.
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Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Speaking of changes, did you catch this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html
We've discussed this before, and I'd love to see such tournament.The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation’s gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
who cares about the NBA equivalent of the FA Cup?Ring_Wanted wrote:Speaking of changes, did you catch this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html
We've discussed this before, and I'd love to see such tournament.The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation’s gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
2) the first round (1st vs 8th) and (2nd vs 7th) should be a best of six (format: H-H-A-A-H-H). the top seed needs only to beat the 7th/8th seed 3 times, while the latter needs to beat the top 1-2 seeds 4 times. let's further give additional incentives for teams to get the best record by giving them an easier path to the finals. once we are in the conference semifinals, all the matchups go back to best of 7.SDC wrote:the reform i'd like to see is:
1) bottom 17 teams get equal chances at the top 4 picks.
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Carey's right. The Suns ALWAYS get fucked in the lottery. Cleveland has had 3 out of the last 4 #1 picks and the Suns haven't ever had one in what, 40 years?
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Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
I think that midseason tournament sounds kind of weird and lame. It could be neat, but, what's the incentive to do well in it? You'd need to really give the winner something special like a guaranteed playoff spot or something of that nature for them to be willing to put their health on the line.
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Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Exactly - unless they make it something significant you're going to see players half-assing it like they do in the all-star game.Mori Chu wrote:I think that midseason tournament sounds kind of weird and lame. It could be neat, but, what's the incentive to do well in it? You'd need to really give the winner something special like a guaranteed playoff spot or something of that nature for them to be willing to put their health on the line.
Nobody wants to get hurt in a pointless in-season exhibition.
Author of The Basketball Draft Fact Book: A History of Professional Basketball's College Drafts
Available from Scarecrow Press at - https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780810890695
Available from Scarecrow Press at - https://rowman.com/ISBN/9780810890695
Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
No thanks. I like some uncertainty and element of chance in the draft order. I like the proposal.The Bobster wrote:Time to shitcan the lottery and just go back to drafting by inverse record (and possibly a coin flip). You're always going to have accusations of tanking, so ignore them and go with the fairest system.
Zach Lowe started speculating about all the potential problems with the proposal, but honestly, it's much ado about nothing. He speculates about potential tanking scenarios, but we already have that happening. And who cares about the teams that have traded their picks already. Their loss. Just approve it already and have go into effect next season.
The wheel idea was terrible.
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Re: NBA Lottery reform proposed at Summer League
Yep, some kind of Cup competition like in soccer/football here in Europe. That would be interesting.Ring_Wanted wrote:Speaking of changes, did you catch this?
http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball- ... 45017.html
We've discussed this before, and I'd love to see such tournament.The popularity of the summer league in Las Vegas – with attendance up 25 percent, Silver said – has the league open to ideas for a greater role in the nation’s gambling capital. One possibility, mentioned without details as a brainstorm from the competition committee: A midseason tournament of some sort.