Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.

Who should the Suns take at #4?

Dragan Bender
20
53%
Jaylen Brown
0
No votes
Marquese Chriss
8
21%
Kris Dunn
0
No votes
Buddy Hield
4
11%
Skal Labissiere
1
3%
Jamal Murray
2
5%
Jakob Poeltl
0
No votes
Domantas Sabonis
3
8%
 
Total votes: 38

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n4th4n
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by n4th4n »

INFORMER wrote:Ultimately, the draft was a crushing disappointment for me. We went in with so much leverage, so much potential to really do some good, and it feels like we came away with nothing. I think we sunk a huge investment in two prospects that will be mediocre players at best. People write off my F grade as melodrama, but it's really how I feel and I'll elaborate on why.

When I saw the Bender pick, I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, but I thought to myself "well at least they didn't go with Chriss." I thought, "Ok, they wasted one pick but at least we have 13, 28, and 34, so this night could still be a success." Sigh, if only I knew what was coming next.

This decision means 2-3 years of waiting for something that will probably never happen. And in the mean time, will overlook prospects in future drafts because we have misplaced hope in these two mediocre prospects. That kills me.

This was a big draft. Some take solace in that, if it is a miss, it will be the end of Ryan. That doesn't comfort me one bit because it doesn't change the fact that we would have wasted considerable assets and years for nothing. That is devastating. And I'm tired of throwing away seasons. We've thrown away seasons on the Morris Twins, Eric Bledsoe, etc. Enough is enough.
This is such an insane take, and I don't see anyone else here addressing it in the correct way, so it appears that I (a loooooong time lurker) am going to have to step in and bring some rationality to this insanity.

These were the correct picks for a number of reasons. First, the current state of HOW basketball is played in this league. Second, our current timeline as a team in respects to the overall all goal of WINNING A CHAMPIONSHIP.

The league is not just trending in the direction of positional versatility, we have already arrived in a time where positional versatility is ESSENTIAL to success, especially for front court players. The ability to play the 3-5 in smallball lineups is so important. Projecting Bender and Chriss, they will be able to do this on both side of the court. Prior to the draft, we had no one on our roster who could do that, be it during this season or in the future. Bender's positional flexibility in particular, and his ability to facilitate is what could really unlock our potential. Chriss' athleticism, shooting, and switchability compliment him perfectly. These are the type of players that can make your team versatile, and more importantly, easy to build around. When you factor in Booker, you can see the pieces truly beginning to fit.

Now let's talk about the players we DIDN"T draft, as I suspect that is a the root of your disapproval. Who would you have rather had?? Murray? A massive defensive liability who has shown no ability to run a team? Heild? Yes, a fantastic shooter and scorer, but a pure combo guard who does not facilitate for others (2.0 assists despite have the ball in his hands most of the time) and again, a mediocre defender. Oh, and let's not forget he will be 27 at the start of his second contract. Dunn? Personally, I would have been intrigued by a Dunn pick, but in order for this plan to be realized, we couldn't let Bender slip past the #4.

I mentioned Heild's age, so lets dive into that a little more and consider the concept of a team timeline. One of the primary problems with the McDonough era is that we have tried to straddle the line between present and future without fully committing to either. Obviously, the results have been poor. And this is why this draft was so exciting. It showed a clear commitment to a path. It showed McDonough and Sarver FINALLY understand where we are in the team building process. We are nowhere near ready to compete at a high level. In fact, ideally, we are in the top 5 again next year, giving us the chance to add the final young, talented peace at the PG or SF position, both spots that are loaded in next year's draft. With 7 players on rookie contracts, we don't more youth with mediocre ceilings(We only lost out on the 28th pick in the draft...and player who isn't in the NBA and become redundant the moment Booker began blossoming). Consolidating on potential was THE RIGHT THING TO DO.

Looking at next year, we could have a core of Ulis, Booker, lets say... Jayson Tatum/Josh Jackson, TJ, Chriss, Bender, and Len. That screams high-ceiling (versatile!!) potential. That is a future that is the envy of all but 2-4 other teams in the NBA. And we have Bledsoe (ahead of the timeline), and Knight as trade chips. Not to mention the Miami picks which could used to bolster a roster coming into its prime, or as trade chips themselves.

Finally, thanks to the draft, this team is being run with a clear-cut vision. Finally, we have real reason to hopeful for the future. Not in a middling 6-8 seed way, but in a real shoot for the stars way.

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Cap
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Cap »

Welcome, n4th4n!

I don't think INF's take is "insane." He's probably the most knowledgeable poster on this site.

We used the #4 and #8 picks on admitted projects who wouldn't be worthy of such high picks in a normal year. (Many pundits have opined that Simmons and Ingram are the only prospects who would be Top 10 picks in an average draft.)

We really don't know whether these projects are going to work out. Suns brass obviously believes they both have good chances. INF believes they don't. If INF is right, then McD just spent 4, 13, 28, Bogdan and a future 2nd on basically nothing. If McD is right, then it's INF who will be eating crow in a couple of years. The rest of us will just have to wait to find out.

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O_Gardino
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by O_Gardino »

Superbone wrote:My stone cold prediction right now is that Chriss will be a significantly better pro than Skal. Let's revisit in two years.
I hope you and Split (and others) are right. I hope Chriss is really good!

Personal Anecdote: IRL, my first name is Chris. I swore when Chriss was drafted, and my wife was like "what's wrong." If this guy is bad, I'm going to live with years of hearing my name in rants. On the other hand, it is VERY exhilarating to hear the game commentators going crazy over a dunk and shouting my name.

Be good, Chriss!


Inf, I get the frustration, but it's a fairly thin draft. I'm not convinced any player in this draft is going to be good enough to immediately end the waiting and awkward seasons we are in the middle of.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

EDC
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by EDC »

I think the grade of an F could easily be considered "insane". Inf is basically writing off these young guys and then claiming that because we picked them we will overlook good players in the future. Like when we stopped drafting guards because we already had a ton of them...

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Indy
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Indy »

O_Gardino wrote:
Superbone wrote:My stone cold prediction right now is that Chriss will be a significantly better pro than Skal. Let's revisit in two years.
I hope you and Split (and others) are right. I hope Chriss is really good!

Personal Anecdote: IRL, my first name is Chris. I swore when Chriss was drafted, and my wife was like "what's wrong." If this guy is bad, I'm going to live with years of hearing my name in rants. On the other hand, it is VERY exhilarating to hear the game commentators going crazy over a dunk and shouting my name.

Be good, Chriss!


Inf, I get the frustration, but it's a fairly thin draft. I'm not convinced any player in this draft is going to be good enough to immediately end the waiting and awkward seasons we are in the middle of.

Same thing here on the name.

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Indy
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Indy »

EDC wrote:I think the grade of an F could easily be considered "insane". Inf is basically writing off these young guys and then claiming that because we picked them we will overlook good players in the future. Like when we stopped drafting guards because we already had a ton of them...

No, what he is saying is that we turned 5 chances (4, 13, 28, 34 and Bogdan) into two chances, in a weak, spread out draft. Many people say that 3-30 are nearly the same level of skill/bustability. So instead of spreading out our bets, we doubled down when nothing in that range was a good bet/sure thing.

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iLLmatic
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by iLLmatic »

Indy wrote:
EDC wrote:I think the grade of an F could easily be considered "insane". Inf is basically writing off these young guys and then claiming that because we picked them we will overlook good players in the future. Like when we stopped drafting guards because we already had a ton of them...

No, what he is saying is that we turned 5 chances (4, 13, 28, 34 and Bogdan) into two chances, in a weak, spread out draft. Many people say that 3-30 are nearly the same level of skill/bustability. So instead of spreading out our bets, we doubled down when nothing in that range was a good bet/sure thing.
Pretty much. And the fact that we gave away Bogdan a year away from him arriving hurts too.

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Indy
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Indy »

Like v9 said, INF is much more likely to be right than wrong. I really hope he is wrong this time (and I'm sure he does too).

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carey
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Re: RE: Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by carey »

Indy wrote:
Same thing here on the name.
I have Steven Adams bec my full name is Carey Steven Adams.
Go Suns!

Og Snus!

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Hermen
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Re: RE: Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Hermen »

carey wrote:
Indy wrote:
Same thing here on the name.
I have Steven Adams bec my full name is Carey Steven Adams.
You have it good then.

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iLLmatic
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by iLLmatic »

Indy wrote:Like v9 said, INF is much more likely to be right than wrong. I really hope he is wrong this time (and I'm sure he does too).
Yep. Good news is if INF is right Ryan will be gone rather sooner than later. Too bad Sarver won't be joining him.

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Cap
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Cap »

Indy wrote:
EDC wrote:I think the grade of an F could easily be considered "insane". Inf is basically writing off these young guys and then claiming that because we picked them we will overlook good players in the future. Like when we stopped drafting guards because we already had a ton of them...

No, what he is saying is that we turned 5 chances (4, 13, 28, 34 and Bogdan) into two chances, in a weak, spread out draft. Many people say that 3-30 are nearly the same level of skill/bustability. So instead of spreading out our bets, we doubled down when nothing in that range was a good bet/sure thing.
How much more could we have spread our bets? Assuming we resign Telly and Price (or comparable replacements), our roster is full at 13. There's no room for any more draftees unless we stash them in the D League or Europe.

(ETA nit pick: We didn't turn 34 into one of the two PF prospects. We used the 34 on Ulis. The 5 chances that went into the two PFs are 4, 13, 28, Bogdan, and a future second-rounder.)

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n4th4n
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by n4th4n »

Indy wrote:
EDC wrote:I think the grade of an F could easily be considered "insane". Inf is basically writing off these young guys and then claiming that because we picked them we will overlook good players in the future. Like when we stopped drafting guards because we already had a ton of them...

No, what he is saying is that we turned 5 chances (4, 13, 28, 34 and Bogdan) into two chances, in a weak, spread out draft. Many people say that 3-30 are nearly the same level of skill/bustability. So instead of spreading out our bets, we doubled down when nothing in that range was a good bet/sure thing.
We didn't turn five chances into two. We turned turned four picks into three picks and traded away someone who would never be more than a backup for us. Unless you can identify a slam dunk that we missed out on with the 28th pick, we used our assets about as optimally as possible.

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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by carey »

Indy wrote:Like v9 said, INF is much more likely to be right than wrong. I really hope he is wrong this time (and I'm sure he does too).
Because betting against success in the draft is always more likely to be right than wrong. The draft is always more littered with failures than successes. INF is just upset because instead of having 4 shots at the bullseye from further away we opted to stand a little closer and take 2 shots. If just one hits either way we'll be happy so I don't see the point in getting upset.
Go Suns!

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Aztec Sunsfan
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Aztec Sunsfan »

carey wrote:
Indy wrote:Like v9 said, INF is much more likely to be right than wrong. I really hope he is wrong this time (and I'm sure he does too).
Because betting against success in the draft is always more likely to be right than wrong. The draft is always more littered with failures than successes. INF is just upset because instead of having 4 shots at the bullseye from further away we opted to stand a little closer and take 2 shots. If just one hits either way we'll be happy so I don't see the point in getting upset.
Great post, I know next to nothing about draft, but this time I saw more structure to our drafting that in recent years. I wanted Bender and Sabonis, but I will give this Chriss guy a legitimate chance to surprise me instead of calling him bust and rejoy on being "right".

In a year without sure things, we take TWO swings for the fences, while other years we have settle for sure mediocrity. I liked that spirit, even if a disagree with the choices, even if Sabonis turns out better than Chriss. Because there is a lot of uncertaintity surrounding this, and we are talking about CHANCES, without hindsight at hand, and of course it looks pretty easy and clear behind a monitor with a beer in the hand, with nothing else to lose but some bogus bragging rights in a fans' board.

It is easier to announce the end of the world, eventually someone will have to nail it. And since this is just a hobby for me, I prefer to keep my cool and watch the kids play, diferent thing would be to be one piece away from the Big Chip, and therefore I understand better the frustration behind the Iguodala and Joe Johnson decisions. But given how low are the chances to pick "Right" this year, and conceding that the further away from the top, those chances are smaller, not sure why some are upset about maximizing those chances, if atolladero we miss, we try again next year with little to nothing lost. Bledsoe's prime? Chandler last stand? Please!!!

Not sure also how Bodgan went from a nice euro prospect, to the next Iguodala, just because we trade him and we love to say "told you so"?. The team aproached to him about coming over and likely became aware of his economics aspirations, and even as posible as it is that he could come over next year for the minimum and become an All Star, I am pretty sure he instead throw a number the team didn't like, he could have said that he is unsure to come next year to the NBA, or just not to the the Suns, etc and therefore the team proceeded to liquidate the asset. Again, there is a lot of uncertain here, but after hindsight, it's easier to claim a pound of flesh, on the people calling the shots BEFORE the fact.
Last edited by Aztec Sunsfan on Mon Jun 27, 2016 3:46 pm, edited 5 times in total.

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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by virtual9mm »

INFORMER wrote:Ultimately, the draft was a crushing disappointment for me. We went in with so much leverage, so much potential to really do some good, and it feels like we came away with nothing. I think we sunk a huge investment in two prospects that will be mediocre players at best. People write off my F grade as melodrama, but it's really how I feel and I'll elaborate on why.

When I saw the Bender pick, I wasn't surprised, but I was disappointed, but I thought to myself "well at least they didn't go with Chriss." I thought, "Ok, they wasted one pick but at least we have 13, 28, and 34, so this night could still be a success." Sigh, if only I knew what was coming next.
Thanks for explaining your reasoning. I certainly see the reason in your logic -- that the draft is fundamentally a crap shoot, and that having multiple picks increases the chances of success. The opposite approach, of course, is to consolidate assets and go for the most promising prospects. I'm pretty convinced that Bender will live up to the #4 draft position in a relatively weak draft, although I'm not at all sure convinced that Chriss will be worthwhile. Still, if they make an SF/PF out of him, I can see how this might minimize his weaknesses.

In the end, I suspect that things will come down to the simple reality that nurturing and developing talent might be more important than simply picking the most promising prospects in 90% of cases. I suspect that we might have a better idea after summer league. If they don't do anything, they've got bust potential. If they excel as they should, whether or not they will succeed will have to be seen during the next few regular seasons.

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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by carey »

That is exactly what I said in the Slack discussion. When I saw BB was included in the trade my first thought was that McDonough was told how much it would take to get him here next year and he didn't like what he heard.

Then of course there is the Divac/Bogdanovic story that came out a bit ago. Apparently Serbians don't get along with Croatians or vice versa due to the national history of Yugoslavia. I'm not completely sure of the details, but there is something of a connection between Vlade and Bogdan that is important. It was reported the deal wouldn't have went down without BB's inclusion.
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by virtual9mm »

carey wrote:
Indy wrote:Like v9 said, INF is much more likely to be right than wrong. I really hope he is wrong this time (and I'm sure he does too).
Because betting against success in the draft is always more likely to be right than wrong. The draft is always more littered with failures than successes. INF is just upset because instead of having 4 shots at the bullseye from further away we opted to stand a little closer and take 2 shots. If just one hits either way we'll be happy so I don't see the point in getting upset.
In the end, I agree with your take. Although there are undoubtedly gems like the Greek Freak late in the first round here.

Incidentally, I do think that Ulis is a high floor prospect who might be substantially better than his draft position might indicate. Sure, taller PGs might shoot over him, but he'll be disruptive through steals and positioning.

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virtual9mm
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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by virtual9mm »

carey wrote:That is exactly what I said in the Slack discussion. When I saw BB was included in the trade my first thought was that McDonough was told how much it would take to get him here next year and he didn't like what he heard.

Then of course there is the Divac/Bogdanovic story that came out a bit ago. Apparently Serbians don't get along with Croatians or vice versa due to the national history of Yugoslavia. I'm not completely sure of the details, but there is something of a connection between Vlade and Bogdan that is important. It was reported the deal wouldn't have went down without BB's inclusion.
I do think that BB is going to be a good player, and that there may be a time when we regret trading him away.

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Re: Poll: Who should the Suns take at #4?

Post by Aztec Sunsfan »

Something like Bodgan refusing to play with Bender? You might be onto something real, there was a full scale civil war between them, and some scars might still hurts, The serbian army was so brutal, that genocide was called upon some of their actions.

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