Around the League: 2018 Offseason

[Superbone]

Way to jinx them, Jon!

[Cap]

It’s good to know whom to blame.

[BlaCkAdDa]

The ultimate guy who you hate to play against but would love if he were on your team. Hit so many huge shots, many of them daggers that lost the Suns a crucial playoff game or series. First-ballot Hall of Famer. Big part of why they won so many titles, second only to Duncan on the court.

...

f*** you, Manu Ginobili!!

[Wormwood]

Pelton gives the Suns a D+ for their offseason.

Phoenix Suns: D+

Few teams added more to the roster than the Suns, who ended up with a pair of lottery picks -- including No. 1 overall selection Deandre Ayton -- and made a splash in free agency by signing Ariza. Remember, though, that these grades are relative to expectation and a team that starts with the top pick and $15 million in cap space should be expected to improve dramatically.

Questions linger about whether Phoenix made the right use of its tools this summer. Though Ayton played well in Las Vegas, it remains unclear whether he can be the defensive anchor necessary to star as a modern center. Trading up for Mikal Bridges cost the Suns an unprotected 2021 first-round pick and Phoenix has a crowd on the wing with Bridges and Ariza joining holdovers Devin Booker (signed to a max extension that will kick in for 2019-20), Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren. And the Suns did little to address their weak rotation at point guard, instead relying on a combination of second-round pick Elie Okobo, G League product Shaquille Harrison and Brandon Knight coming back from an ACL tear.

[ShelC]

Clearly prior to the trade last week, which IMO, raised the offseason to about a C just by getting rid of Knight and Chriss. The Ariza signing was pointless. I know others disagree but unless we're using him as a trade chip in February to send to a contender, I don't see him doing much for us overall.

[jonh]

Way to jinx them, Jon!

Guys, that loss is on me. My bad.

[jonh]

Pelton gives the Suns a D+ for their offseason.

Phoenix Suns: D+

Few teams added more to the roster than the Suns, who ended up with a pair of lottery picks -- including No. 1 overall selection Deandre Ayton -- and made a splash in free agency by signing Ariza. Remember, though, that these grades are relative to expectation and a team that starts with the top pick and $15 million in cap space should be expected to improve dramatically.

Questions linger about whether Phoenix made the right use of its tools this summer. Though Ayton played well in Las Vegas, it remains unclear whether he can be the defensive anchor necessary to star as a modern center. Trading up for Mikal Bridges cost the Suns an unprotected 2021 first-round pick and Phoenix has a crowd on the wing with Bridges and Ariza joining holdovers Devin Booker (signed to a max extension that will kick in for 2019-20), Josh Jackson and T.J. Warren. And the Suns did little to address their weak rotation at point guard, instead relying on a combination of second-round pick Elie Okobo, G League product Shaquille Harrison and Brandon Knight coming back from an ACL tear.

I see this grade as valid until the Suns trade for a point guard. It feels like the offseason should be re-graded at that point, as the team would potentially look fundamentally different.

[In2ition]

Maybe the Suns should get an F- until they prove they can win with these additions.

[Split T]

I wouldn't give a D or F grade unless the moves made the team worse. We clearly aren't worse so C is my baseline. Problem is we had the #1 pick. Anyone who thought we should have taken Doncic is going to give is a bad grade.

Pelton gives us a D but we landed like the #2, #6, #12 and #16 guys on his draft board...makes no sense. Even if you go strictly on his stats model, we landed #4, #10, #12, and #18

[Indy]

I wouldn't give a D or F grade unless the moves made the team worse. We clearly aren't worse so C is my baseline. Problem is we had the #1 pick. Anyone who thought we should have taken Doncic is going to give is a bad grade.

Pelton gives us a D but we landed like the #2, #6, #12 and #16 guys on his draft board...makes no sense. Even if you go strictly on his stats model, we landed #4, #10, #12, and #18

Okobo and Melton were both in his top 16?

[Split T]

I wouldn't give a D or F grade unless the moves made the team worse. We clearly aren't worse so C is my baseline. Problem is we had the #1 pick. Anyone who thought we should have taken Doncic is going to give is a bad grade.

Pelton gives us a D but we landed like the #2, #6, #12 and #16 guys on his draft board...makes no sense. Even if you go strictly on his stats model, we landed #4, #10, #12, and #18

Okobo and Melton were both in his top 16?

Yep, Melton was #12 and #10 based strictly on his stats model. Okobo was #16/#18

[Superbone]

Maybe the Suns should get an F- until they prove they can win with these additions.

Or maybe even a G if they don't win 25 games or more.

[In2ition]

Maybe the Suns should get an F- until they prove they can win with these additions.

Or maybe even a G if they don't win 25 games or more.

Exactly, what's below a G? I think you hold out until the Suns win their 26th game, even if that comes by the 30th game total. I mean they could be 25-4, and there is no evidence based on last year that they will win another game the rest of the season. Plus the smartest guys are in Vegas and they don't expect much better, so that definitely should be at best a D+ in the most optimistic view.

Pelton probably docked them in Suns fans opinion for having the #1 pick, but picking the #4 player, so that's a misuse of resources of course. There is another view that the Suns could have the Dream Team put together, but having Booker as your featured star will make a team under perform substantially.

[Indy]

I wouldn't give a D or F grade unless the moves made the team worse. We clearly aren't worse so C is my baseline. Problem is we had the #1 pick. Anyone who thought we should have taken Doncic is going to give is a bad grade.

Pelton gives us a D but we landed like the #2, #6, #12 and #16 guys on his draft board...makes no sense. Even if you go strictly on his stats model, we landed #4, #10, #12, and #18

Okobo and Melton were both in his top 16?

Yep, Melton was #12 and #10 based strictly on his stats model. Okobo was #16/#18

Do you have his list somewhere you can share? I am not (and will never be) an insiderTM.

[Split T]

When I first posted statistical projections for the 2018 NBA draft back in March, I included only those for college prospects, which left a Luka Doncic-sized hole at the top of the rankings.

Now that we're including everyone, Doncic is naturally No. 1, and his 5.8 projected wins above replacement player (WARP) -- what we'd expect him to average over his first five seasons, discounting more distant ones to reward immediate returns -- are in fact the most for any of the 800-plus players I've projected dating back to 2003. Doncic tops Anthony Davis (5.5) for that honor, though it's worth noting that I don't have a projection for LeBron James out of St. Vincent-St. Mary High School or Dwight Howard the following year.

Doncic's ascension to the top isn't the only change since March. Like our ESPN Analytics projections, I've incorporated performance in the Nike EYBL AAU league for players who saw action there in either 2015 or 2016 thanks to Neil Johnson of ESPN Stats & Information. This has a significant impact for freshmen who often played nearly as many minutes in the EYBL as in the NCAA -- or many more, in the case of Michael Porter Jr., who missed most of his lone season at Missouri due to injury.

Additionally, as explained in a full piece looking at the value of centers in the modern NBA, I've made an adjustment to the projections based on player positions that causes big men to fall in the rankings and wings, in particular, to climb. As a result, my projections now differ more from the consensus at the top of the draft, which will likely be dominated by big men.

You can read more on the projections and see how they've worked in the past here, but now let's get to the rankings based on consensus projections that incorporate both statistical performance and where the player rates in the current top 100 from Insider Jonathan Givony.


1. Luka Doncic

Real Madrid
PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 5.8 WARP

Doncic has played nearly 4,000 minutes and counting between the Spanish ACB and the Euroleague -- more than three times as many as Anthony Davis played at Kentucky, for example. As a result, while there's still reason to question how his skills will translate to the NBA, we can be more confident in his projection accurately capturing those skills.

2. Deandre Ayton

Arizona
C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 3.2 WARP


Before the positional adjustment, Ayton ranked fourth in my stats-only projections, so he takes a major hit.

Still, he looks like a strong prospect. Ayton's projections rank among the top 25 percent of NBA-bound centers in seven categories (usage, 2-point percentage, shooting, rebound percentage, assist percentage, turnover percentage and foul percentage) -- as many as Doncic. The difference is that Ayton's statistical weaknesses (particularly steal percentage, though his block percentage is on the low side for a center) take a bigger hit out of his projection.

3. Trae Young

Oklahoma
PG
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.0 WARP

Young is the biggest beneficiary of the positional adjustment, jumping several of the big men who previously rated ahead of him to finish with the best statistical projection among college prospects. Young's projected usage rate ranks fifth among players in the top 100 of ESPN's draft rankings, and his projected assist rate ranks second behind Doncic.

4. Jaren Jackson Jr.

Michigan State
F/C
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 2.8 WARP

Jackson was the No. 1 college prospect in March, but both of the changes to the projections hurt him. He wasn't nearly as effective in the 2016 EYBL as during his lone season at Michigan State. Nonetheless, Jackson benefits from being the youngest prospect in the top 100.

5. Michael Porter Jr.

Missouri
SF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 2.7 WARP

In March, Porter wasn't included in my projections because he'd played just two minutes before undergoing back surgery. He returned to play 51 in two tournament games, but his projection is still based primarily on the EYBL. Porter rated as the league's third-most valuable player by WARP in 2016 and performed decently as a rising junior the year before. Assuming Porter's medicals check out -- no sure thing -- he should still be considered the top prospect he was entering Missouri.

6. Mikal Bridges

Villanova
SF
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.5 WARP

A favorite of statistical projections dating back to when he was coming off the bench as a redshirt freshman, Bridges developed to become the best player on last year's national champions. His game should translate well to a 3-and-D role in the NBA. While Bridges could stand to improve on the defensive glass, his steal rate is solid and he has the ability to defend multiple positions.

7. Mohamed Bamba

Texas
C
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 2.5 WARP

One concern about Bamba: his projected assist rate (1.3 per 100 team plays) ranks among the bottom 25 in my projection database. It's possible to become an effective offensive player despite that issue -- fellow Longhorn LaMarcus Aldridge had a weaker assist projection, as did Hassan Whiteside, though Greg Oden and Emeka Okafor were similar -- but it limits Bamba's offensive value.

8. Dzanan Musa

KK Cedevita
SF
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

At age 18 (he turned 19 in May), Musa was one of the best players in the Adriatic League this past season. The Adriatic has been a cradle for NBA big men, recently producing the likes of Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic. The track record for wings has been more mixed; though the likes of Bogdan Bogdanovic and Dario Saric played there early in their careers, only Timothe Luwawu has gone directly from the ABA to the NBA in recent memory, and the athleticism of Adriatic wings is limited. That could be an issue for Musa, but he projects as an efficient scorer thanks to accurate shooting both inside and outside the arc.

9. Mitchell Robinson


N/A
C
Top 100: No. 23
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Along with Billy Preston, Robinson is one of two players in this year's top 100 projected solely based on EYBL performance. He was fourth in the 2016 EYBL in WARP behind Young, Porter and Kentucky point guard Quade Green. Robinson's block rate was the best by any EYBL player in a season from 2012 to 2016, his offensive rebound rate was third in that span, and his 73 percent 2-point shooting was tops among players with at least 150 attempts. We didn't get a chance to see how that play would translate at the NCAA level, but if Robinson can harness his skills, he has a chance to be the steal of this year's draft.

10. Miles Bridges

Michigan State
SF
Top 100: No. 15
Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Bridges could be even better offensively in the NBA with better floor spacing than he enjoyed playing small forward next to Jackson and traditional centers at Michigan State. According to positional splits compiled by Will Schreefer, Bridges averaged 39.6 points per 100 possessions with a .596 true shooting percentage in 412 possessions at power forward, as compared to 29.9 points per 100 possessions and .575 true shooting in 1,403 possessions at small forward. Bridges might have a hard time defending 3s; his projected steal rate (1.0 per 100 team plays) would rank among the bottom 50 perimeter players in my database.

11. Kevin Huerter

Maryland
SG
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Huerter is an interesting prospect because he's all strengths and weaknesses. His projections rank in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound shooting guards in five of the 10 categories I track, but in the bottom 2 percent of four of the other five. (Rebound percentage is the one skill that rates as neither a strength nor a weakness for Huerter.) Fortunately, his strengths -- particularly outside shooting -- are more valuable than his weaknesses, though a low steal rate (1.1 per 100 team plays) is also a concern for him.

12. De'Anthony Melton


USC
G
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

Melton sat out the entire 2017-18 season due to eligibility concerns. A relatively unskilled offensive player who shot 28 percent on 3s as a freshman in 2016-17 and isn't quite a point guard, Melton is valuable nonetheless for his defense; his projected 2.8 steals per 100 plays rank in the top 20 in my database. Melton could be a skinnier Marcus Smart at the NBA level, though Smart was a much higher-usage player in college.

13. Jacob Evans

Cincinnati
G
Top 100: No. 30
Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

I'm surprised Evans hasn't gotten more buzz as the draft approaches. He's a modern perimeter player who shot 38 percent on 3s during his college career but also handles the ball well enough to run the Bearcats' offense at times. Evans is also big enough to defend either backcourt spot and some small forwards. A relatively low usage rate might be working against Evans, along with the fact that poor midrange shooting limited his efficiency (he shot 33 percent on 2-pointers beyond 5 feet, per Synergy Sports tracking).

14. Marvin Bagley III

Duke
F/C
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 43

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Bagley, ranked fifth in March, tumbles because of the two changes to my projection method. Intriguingly, while adding EYBL stats boosted Bagley atop the ESPN Analytics model, incorporating his 2016 performance hurts him here. (Bagley also played in 2017, which is not considered because incoming college freshmen typically don't play AAU ball; Bagley did before reclassifying.) His 58 percent 2-point shooting was relatively unimpressive given the level of play (Ayton, by contrast, shot 65 percent) and Bagley went 8-of-48 on 3s. Based just on his Duke stats, Bagley would rank ninth overall even with the adjustment for positional value.

15. Zhaire Smith

Texas Tech
SF
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Smith also was less effective in the EYBL than as a freshman, which makes sense given the way he came out of nowhere as an unranked prospect according to ESPN Recruiting Nation. Smith's steal and block rates were far less eye-popping against AAU competition. Still, the positional adjustment leaves Smith in about the same spot as in the top 100.

16. Elie Okobo


Pau-Orthez
PG
Top 100: No. 21
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Okobo took a key step forward in the French LNB Pro A this season, nearly doubling his minutes per game and going from 48 points and 1.6 assists per game in 2016-17 to 12.9 and 4.8 apiece. Okobo's projected assist rate is now solidly average for an NBA-bound point guard, and his 3-point shooting (39 percent from the FIBA line last season) is a strength

[Indy]

Thanks split!

[In2ition]

If you combine their WARP, the Suns could have nearly a 9 WARP with the new additions.

Any word that the Suns are going to sign Melton today?

[Shabazz]

If you combine their WARP, the Suns could have nearly a 9 WARP with the new additions.

Any word that the Suns are going to sign Melton today?

I think that thing about today being the deadline that Evan Sidery posted was false, although it may be the date by which an offer has to be tendered.

[Mori Chu]

I enjoyed this article from Yahoo Sports about the most fun-to-watch bad teams of the 2018-19 season. They put our Suns at #1. I disagree with some of his rankings (Nets at #3?!) but it's a fun read overall.

https://sports.yahoo.com/presenting-201 ... 34632.html

[Superbone]

If you combine their WARP, the Suns could have nearly a 9 WARP with the new additions.

She cannae take any more, Captain!