Who would you pick if we (OGW-willing) landed #1?

[AmareIsGod]

Defense will be the make or break point for Ayton. He hasn't been very good but he has all the tools. If he can't be a positive contributor on that end, he's not going to be a star.

I have no doubt that Doncic is a very good player. My only question will be how he handles NBA athleticism.

I think Ayton has a higher ceiling and there is a better chance he ends up a star. While I don't think he's really a bust candidate, I also think there's a better chance he ends up just ok.

Doncic to me is safer. His peak might only be somewhere around Joe Johnson/Gordon Hayward/Manu but I feel pretty good he's at least Nic Batum.

Ayton could be Embiid/Cousins/Towns, but he could also be Drummond or athletic Kanter.

I'm not ready to write off Bagley either. I think there's almost zero chance we draft him but he's the safest player in the top to me. He's at least an athletic version of Randle with a jumpshot.

If people have issues with Ayton's defense, do you think Bagley is better? His defense is atrocious.

[Split T]

No I don't think Bagley is better defensively, but I do think he's better offensively. Ayton might turn into a good rim protector, I doubt Bagley does. However, Bagley is actually pretty good defending on the perimeter. He moves well and I think he could switch onto smaller players in time. You'd still need a rim protector next to him.

I would just be completely shocked if Bagley isn't a 20/10 guy in this league. He's a crazy athlete and while not as big as Ayton, he's more mobile and more skilled from the perimeter. He's a grab and go big who can handle and finish in transition. I don't think he's quite as good as his 40% 3pt shooting this year suggests, but I think he'll be a good shooter in time. Once he learns how to use his right hand, he'll be pretty unstoppable offensively.

[TOO]

I think Ayton can be a good defender, but I wouldnt at all be surprised if he's Drummond from 2 years ago, not a great defensively, but will score and dominate the glass. He wont the be FT liability though, so that is a big step up.

[Split T]

I think Ayton can be a good defender, but I wouldnt at all be surprised if he's Drummond from 2 years ago, not a great defensively, but will score and dominate the glass. He wont the be FT liability though, so that is a big step up.

Yep, kinda where I see his floor.

[O_Gardino]

Guys, there was a change in NBA rules a while ago. The game is a lot less physical than it was. Speed is more important than strength now.
You can no longer push a guy to get post position the way you used to. You've got to establish position by getting to the spot first.
If you hit a guy while making your move it is now an offensive foul. You have to make your move around the defender with agility, not through him with strength.

There has also been a change in player talent. Guys are quicker, more agile, and better shooters.
In the old days, team's only had one or 2 guys on the floor who could shoot. You HAD to shoot it close because those were the only shots players could make. Now, teams routinely put 4 shooters on the court.
In the old days, teams only had 1 or 2 guys who were a threat to dribble. Now, teams routinely put 5 guys on the court who can drive to the basket.

IMO: a post up game is still a useful skill, but it will never again be a primary skill. It's a secondary skill. You let perimeter movement create mismatches, and the player is quick enough to dive and smart crafty enough to get a good shot before the defense can react. You cannot play inside-out, because the good coaches aren't dumb enough to double team a player in the post.

Have you watched Ayton? He's not bulldozing people like Shaq. He's very quick, agile, and athletic in the post.

I'm not talking about Ayton in my post at all, I'm just explaining the reasons behind the perimeter play we see today. It's not a fashion trend that will go away in a few years just because people want to do something different. You can't win playing inside-out. You have to initiate the offense from the perimeter, not the post, on most possessions.

[O_Gardino]

Guys, there was a change in NBA rules a while ago. The game is a lot less physical than it was. Speed is more important than strength now.
You can no longer push a guy to get post position the way you used to. You've got to establish position by getting to the spot first.
If you hit a guy while making your move it is now an offensive foul. You have to make your move around the defender with agility, not through him with strength.

There has also been a change in player talent. Guys are quicker, more agile, and better shooters.
In the old days, team's only had one or 2 guys on the floor who could shoot. You HAD to shoot it close because those were the only shots players could make. Now, teams routinely put 4 shooters on the court.
In the old days, teams only had 1 or 2 guys who were a threat to dribble. Now, teams routinely put 5 guys on the court who can drive to the basket.

IMO: a post up game is still a useful skill, but it will never again be a primary skill. It's a secondary skill. You let perimeter movement create mismatches, and the player is quick enough to dive and smart crafty enough to get a good shot before the defense can react. You cannot play inside-out, because the good coaches aren't dumb enough to double team a player in the post.

Have you watched Ayton? He's not bulldozing people like Shaq. He's very quick, agile, and athletic in the post.

I think it’s still possible for a great big (if that’s what Ayton turns out being) to use post ups efficiently, as long as he’s not overly reliant on them. His ability to pass, move and shoot means you can’t take them away by putting a moose on him. (Well, you can, but he’ll punish you in other ways if you do.) If he only posts up as circumstances dictate, rather than forcing the post ups, I think he can be efficient with them. And if that’s true, he may be one of the few remaining players in the league who can.

That's how I view him. I don't think posting up Ayton is going to be a go to move. It'll be situational and used to keep teams from switching. GS wouldn't be able to switch a Booker/Ayton pick and roll because Ayton would destroy Klay in the post

I agree with most of this. I actually think there are a lot of good post-ups nightly in the NBA. It's just that nobody is a pure post player anymore. It's one tool on the belt of a good scorer.

IMO, Ayton has the agility to be a very good scorer in an offense with lots of movement. He's quick and will get position pretty well. If he has the bball IQ, he will learn to make moves that aren't fouls. I think he can be a great roll guy.

But he will have to defend the 3pt line better than they defend the paint, because 3 is still more than 2. And he has to stay out of foul trouble.

I will point out that Ayton has compared himself to Shaq, and that he apparently prides himself on playing inside-out. Posting up may not be his go-to move in the NBA, but it is absolutely his best skill right now. His next coach is going to have to teach him a new way to play.

[O_Gardino]

This is the only board I know of that is so infatuated with Doncic. He is a great player, but Ayton is the choice at #1. Ayton is unstoppable on offense, an excellent passer, already a good shooter in the midrange and has a better shooting percentage than Doncic from the three right now. Now the Euro three is longer, and Doncic takes a lot more, so I am not saying that Ayton is a better shooter. Ayton has the best combination of size, strength and agility coming out since AD, maybe since Shaq. His hands are like butter. He catches everything. UofA's coaching was horrendous. Ayton spent all year guarding wings at the 3 point line. Watch the tape. He needs some defensive coaching but he has the physical tools. Doncic works hard on D and his fundamentals on D are very good, he lacks the physical tools. Which player will a coach think he can help more? Ayton's footwork is amazing. He has very fast feet and he is amazingly quick down the floor. He started out in sports playing soccer like Hakeem.

Doncic will be a great player, maybe an all-star. Ayton could be a generational big. He is stronger and faster than KAT. He is faster than Embiid and does not have the injury issues. He has way way beyond Capella or Gobert offensively.

Do you really expect him to stay in the paint in the NBA? Like, you thikn he's going to face teams with fewer shooters? He's still going to have to defend the 3pt line.

[Split T]

He'll have to defend it, but in lesser amounts but I also think he's better equipped to defend it than Gobert is and gobert is probably going to win defensive player of the year.

[INFORMER]

If people have issues with Ayton's defense, do you think Bagley is better? His defense is atrocious.

Yep.

[INFORMER]

I don't really see a basis for calling Ayton "unstoppable" on offense.

At the NBA level, I think might have a harder time on the offensive end. He really isn't that good at catching the ball on the move, which will limit his screen and roll utility. He isn't an explosive finisher around the basket. And I don't think he is going to be able to hit the NBA 3 at a decent clip; his shooting form doesn't seem conducive to it.

[INFORMER]

INFO - are there any legit defensive - rebounding Bigs we could get later in the draft.

Robert Williams, for most people. I would go with Porter, and then possibly target Valanciunas in a trade.

[AmareIsGod]

If people have issues with Ayton's defense, do you think Bagley is better? His defense is atrocious.

Yep.

Yep? As in, Bagley is better?

[Xylus]

How far do you guys think Michael Porter Jr falls, and how far is too far?

[O_Gardino]

How far do you guys think Michael Porter Jr falls, and how far is too far?

He goes top 10 for sure. Probably top 7.

[iLLmatic]

How pissed would everyone be if we took Bamba number 1.

[O_Gardino]

How pissed would everyone be if we took Bamba number 1.

Fairly pissed. I wouldn't be mad to trade down for him, though.

[Split T]

How pissed would everyone be if we took Bamba number 1.

Depends, Bamba is super intriguing and if we bring him in and he's the best prospect, we should draft him. I'd be a little dissapointed if we didn't manage to trade down and pick up another asset but I'd reserve judgement till we saw him on the court.

It feels like we're drafting Ayton, but I really hope we don't have our minds made up. We need to bring everyone in and find the best player/fit. I'm willing to consider Ayton/Doncic/Bagley/Bamba/Porter/JJJ at 1. Would hope we trade down if we determine anyone other than Ayton/Doncic is the guy...unless one of those guys significantly increases their stock over the next month. Then just take them #1.

[carey]

I don't really see a basis for calling Ayton "unstoppable" on offense.

At the NBA level, I think might have a harder time on the offensive end. He really isn't that good at catching the ball on the move, which will limit his screen and roll utility. He isn't an explosive finisher around the basket. And I don't think he is going to be able to hit the NBA 3 at a decent clip; his shooting form doesn't seem conducive to it.

Is this true? His hands seem positively Amare-like in all the videos I've watched of him.

[INFORMER]

If people have issues with Ayton's defense, do you think Bagley is better? His defense is atrocious.

Yep.

Yep? As in, Bagley is better?

No. I was agreeing that Bagley is worse defensively.

[Split T]

I don't really see a basis for calling Ayton "unstoppable" on offense.

At the NBA level, I think might have a harder time on the offensive end. He really isn't that good at catching the ball on the move, which will limit his screen and roll utility. He isn't an explosive finisher around the basket. And I don't think he is going to be able to hit the NBA 3 at a decent clip; his shooting form doesn't seem conducive to it.

What do you think about Bagley on offense?