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To an extent I don't even care about Jackson's shot. I can live with him if he never develops a reliable spot up 3pt shot, and actually think he currently has some shotmaking ability off the dribble, but he needs to stay under control. Have him improve his shot selection and not commit stupid TOs. If he manages that, he can be a role player in the mold of the late Iggy. If he can't, he is 75% of Corey Brewer and not worth your time if you are a losing team.

I'm sorry but didn't Josh Jackson just complete his rookie season? He hasn't had a season in the NBA followed by regression. He set his baseline his rookie season. Let's see how his sophomore season goes before we start talking about how overly concerned we are. I saw improvement last season, all that we can ask for.

I'd say:
+5 wins because we won't tank
+5 wins due to internal improvement(Booker/Jackson/Knight)
+5 wins due to external improvement(Ayton, Ariza, Bridges, Igor)

That puts us at 36 wins. Knock off 2 for the improved west and 34 is my number to beat. If we hit 35, I'll consider the season a success. 33 and under and I'll start to be dissapointed.

Like I said, the over is a safe bet and I will put my money where my mouth is if I get the chance.

AmareIsGod wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:59 pm

I'm sorry but didn't Josh Jackson just complete his rookie season? He hasn't had a season in the NBA followed by regression. He set his baseline his rookie season. Let's see how his sophomore season goes before we start talking about how overly concerned we are. I saw improvement last season, all that we can ask for.

He did, but he also completed his rookie season as 245th out of 247 players in WS. And same for VORP. And 241/247 for BPM. You can argue that he is a rookie, and these are advanced stats that all have problems with them. But to consistently be in the bottom of all players who played last year isn't great.

I totally expect him to be much better this year, but he is starting from the bottom.

Jackson will never become a great player unless he finds a way to fix his jumpshot. His summer league was quite disappointing. (To be fair, my man Bender also had a dreadful SL and looked like he was not making the progress he needs to make.)

It's hard to agree that Josh Jackson can be a great player without being at least an average 3-point shooter. Look at the way we are looking at Warren, who by all means, is an effective basketball player.

Regardless whether he will be a better basketball player this season, there isn't enough data and there are enough potential biases to make projection almost an impossible task. Again, not much news until training camp starts in less than a month.

Indy wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:52 am

AmareIsGod wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:59 pm

I'm sorry but didn't Josh Jackson just complete his rookie season? He hasn't had a season in the NBA followed by regression. He set his baseline his rookie season. Let's see how his sophomore season goes before we start talking about how overly concerned we are. I saw improvement last season, all that we can ask for.

He did, but he also completed his rookie season as 245th out of 247 players in WS. And same for VORP. And 241/247 for BPM. You can argue that he is a rookie, and these are advanced stats that all have problems with them. But to consistently be in the bottom of all players who played last year isn't great.

I totally expect him to be much better this year, but he is starting from the bottom.

We all know he played historically bad to start his career and played much better around and after the new year. Can you adjust those advanced metrics to look at his numbers when his production improved?

A lot depends on how the rest of his game develops. I think he's got the skillset to be a perimeter version of Draymond. Draymond can make 3's, but he's below average. Draymond is pretty special defensively though and Jackson will never be able to defend 5's like he can.

Still, I can envision a scenario where Jackson is a below average 3 pt shooter(under 33%) but defends multiple positions(1-4) at a very high level and can be a point forward type on offense in a system with multiple creators and lots of shooters around him.

Could a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk while shooting .44/.32/.70 be considered a great player? How good would his defense need to be?

AmareIsGod wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:45 am

Indy wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 16, 2018 5:52 am

AmareIsGod wrote: ↑

Wed Aug 15, 2018 3:59 pm

I'm sorry but didn't Josh Jackson just complete his rookie season? He hasn't had a season in the NBA followed by regression. He set his baseline his rookie season. Let's see how his sophomore season goes before we start talking about how overly concerned we are. I saw improvement last season, all that we can ask for.

He did, but he also completed his rookie season as 245th out of 247 players in WS. And same for VORP. And 241/247 for BPM. You can argue that he is a rookie, and these are advanced stats that all have problems with them. But to consistently be in the bottom of all players who played last year isn't great.

I totally expect him to be much better this year, but he is starting from the bottom.

We all know he played historically bad to start his career and played much better around and after the new year. Can you adjust those advanced metrics to look at his numbers when his production improved?

I respect how much stats some of you guys drop on here, even have learnt some terms and websites to check but still context is always the most important thing so I'm with AIG , using the full season with Josh is just misleading because of how big a difference Oct-Dec and Jan-Mar play was. I know y'all doing advanced stats but even looking at a standard game log everyone knows his scoring improved but for all the broken jumper = ineffective takes, I myself was surprised to see he was 45% fg in the New Year
I not gonna fault anyone concerned about his shooting, I pay closer attention to his decision making but anyways I'm just not as pessimistic about him as others

Here were Shawn Marion’s first three seasons as far as 3P%:

.182
.256
.393

And Marion is a player that Jackson was compared to when he was drafted. Jackson was .263 from 3 his first year. He did attempt more threes than Marion did at the start of his career, but I see no reason to be concerned yet about his development of the three point shot. And remember Marion always had an unorthodox shooting form.

I'm sure Jackson can/will make the occasional 3, same as TJ Warren, but I don't think he'll ever be deemed a "shooter". Bridges will be the shooter on the wing. Jackson can be a demon defensively and on the break with the ball, he can slash and make some flip shots in the lane. Will that be enough? Is that redundant with Warren? Probably.

bajanguy008 wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:49 pm

...
I not gonna fault anyone concerned about his shooting, I pay closer attention to his decision making but anyways I'm just not as pessimistic about him as others

It's all about the decision making for me. He got to the rim better than anyone on the team last season, and had the best combination of attacking and passing we've seen in a while. If he can grow into those strengths, his shooting #s will be fine.

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:47 am

Still, I can envision a scenario where Jackson is a below average 3 pt shooter(under 33%) but defends multiple positions(1-4) at a very high level and can be a point forward type on offense in a system with multiple creators and lots of shooters around him.

Could a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk while shooting .44/.32/.70 be considered a great player? How good would his defense need to be?

Let me clarify and say that Jackson needs to be a respectable 3-point shooter who can't simply be ignored on the 3-point line -- a 3pt threat if left open. There's a big difference between a slightly below-average shooter who will drill the open 3 and consequently needs to be guarded, versus a much below-average shooter who can be left alone so that the defender can help double a player in the paint.

I don't think that a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk player shooting .44/.32/.70 would be considered an All-Star unless you were talking about an oversized point guard with primary ballhandling responsibilities. Still, this points out one direction in which Jackson could evolve if he really improved ballhandling and let the game slow down and come to him.

I think it just depends on his defense. If he's an all-nba defender that can cover 1-4, those numbers make him an all star. Assuming the team is good.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 18, 2018 2:30 pm

Here were Shawn Marion’s first three seasons as far as 3P%:

.182
.256
.393

And Marion is a player that Jackson was compared to when he was drafted. Jackson was .263 from 3 his first year. He did attempt more threes than Marion did at the start of his career, but I see no reason to be concerned yet about his development of the three point shot. And remember Marion always had an unorthodox shooting form.

There are a few similarities, but I don't think Jackson is very much like Shawn Marion. Marion was a much bouncier athlete who soared above the rim. And while Marion had a quirky jumper and was questionable from 3, he had a pretty great touch from mid-range and was great at little flip shots and one-handers close to the basket. He seemed to always get around 20 points without having any plays run for him and barely dribbling the ball. He got baskets on fast breaks, alley oops, rebound putbacks, and the occasional jump shot.

Jackson is a much better ballhandler, dribbler, and passer and can initiate offense much much better. He is athletic and strong, but not as much of a leaper or gazelle as Marion. He's a bad shooter like Marion, but he doesn't seem to have the midrangers and flip shots yet. Jackson is much better at driving to the basket and finishing than Marion was.

The two players are both good defenders, but again, not in exactly the same way. Marion was a great 1-on-1 defender who could face up the likes of Michael Jordan and Kevin Garnett both. He had really long arms and could bother shots, and he was great at getting defensive rebounds; he seemed to get about 9-10 boards with little effort. Jackson is also a very strong defender, but more of a perimeter defender. He's defensively more of a 2-3 than Marion's 3-4.

I don't know who the best comparison is for Jackson, but I certainly wouldn't choose Marion. To others reading this thread: who does Jackson remind you of, past or present?

Jerrod Mustaf.

Charlie Smithy! wrote: ↑

Sun Aug 19, 2018 3:11 pm

Jerrod Mustaf.

You mean this Jerrod Mustaf?

I recommend that anyone considering clicking on that link have a barf bag handy before doing so.

Grant Hill might not be a bad comp for Jackson. Similar in terms of size, ballhandling ability. Grant was a much more fundamental offensive player from midrange, but struggled from 3 because of form. Grant seemed more much of a point forward though, whereas Jackson is a SF who can put the ball on the floor and slash to the basket. He can pass, but I don't think he's necessarily looking to set others up. Better version of Thabo? Ronnie Brewer? Nic Batum without the outside shot?

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 18, 2018 11:47 am

A lot depends on how the rest of his game develops. I think he's got the skillset to be a perimeter version of Draymond. Draymond can make 3's, but he's below average. Draymond is pretty special defensively though and Jackson will never be able to defend 5's like he can.

Still, I can envision a scenario where Jackson is a below average 3 pt shooter(under 33%) but defends multiple positions(1-4) at a very high level and can be a point forward type on offense in a system with multiple creators and lots of shooters around him.

Could a 16pts, 7 reb, 5 ast, 2 stl, 1 blk while shooting .44/.32/.70 be considered a great player? How good would his defense need to be?

I searched for similar seasons in BKref. I allowed 16pts, 6 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 steals (or better) among players listed as forwards or guard-forwards. There are 77 such seasons on record. 68 were all star selections, and 9 were not. It's really hard for a forward to get that many assists without being a primary initiator in the offense. His actual defense could stink with numbers like those, and he would still be considered a good defender and all-star level players.

Here is the filter for seasons that did not earn an allstar appearance.

http://bkref.com/tiny/tZ7z3