The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.
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bajanguy008
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The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Post by bajanguy008 »

Ok guys gonna try a lengthy post so bare with me lol :oops: :)
I been checking Basketball Reference ever since we went with Igor to try get an idea how our team would look compared to Jazz. I know many were saying over the summer "We have all these wings trying to play like the Warriors but are nowhere close" which is fair and correct but I was always more interested in sizing us up to Igor's former employer's squad

(33) Mitchell - Devin
(32) Gobert - Ayton
(31) Ingles - Ariza
(29) Favors - Anderson
(28) Rubio - Canaan
(27) Crowder - TJ
(17) O'neale - Josh
(17) Burks - Crawford/Daniels
(16) Exum - Okobo/Bridges


Jerebko - Bender
Udoh - Chandler/Holmes
Neto - Bridges / Melton


When you look at their roster it's understandable why they were expected to struggle with Hayward going to Boston. I paired players based on position and likely usage rate with Jazz player minutes in brackets and I think it seems like a fair expectation for most of our guys. I know Split likes to do his minutes projections and I think he posted quite similar numbers
* the obvious unlikely one is Canaan matching Rubio's minutes as Book and Crawford will cut into those
* Royce O'neale mins increased during the season and he actually play 24mins per in Playoffs so Josh should be between that range
* Jerebko, Udoh and Neto only played 12-15mins per being probably used based on opponent which I assume will be the case with those guys I have


Jazz obviously overachieved because nobody foresaw Donovan's play but as we know their Defense carried them and that was my main concern during the summer when I saw the criticisms of Ayton's D. I'm glad to see that he looks like proving those analysts wrong and although he will not be on Gobert's level from the outset it doesn't seem far fetched that he can be a solid anchor in due time.
I might just be being a homer but despite the rough preseason , looking at the two teams I think we gonna improve our scoring (both teams avg 104 last yr) and yes the two teams were on opposite ends of the spectrum on D (Jazz 100pts against) for 1st and we were last giving up 113. We haven't seen any evidence of it yet but I'm gonna allow myself to believe our points against will not be 113 this year 8-) , clearly I'm one of the optimist on here :lol: but hey Suns potentially scoring more, maybe giving up less should mean a more competitive team right ? :oops:
SUNS Fan from the Land of Sun, Sea and Sand ;)

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O_Gardino
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Re: The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Post by O_Gardino »

Nice breakdown, Bajan. A lot seems to rest on if we get any contribution for the PG position.
The league needs heroes, villains... and clowns. -- Aztec Sunsfan

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Mori Chu
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Re: The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Post by Mori Chu »

This is an interesting breakdown; thanks for posting it. But I do think our team is very different from that Jazz roster. For example:

(32) Gobert - Ayton

Both Gobert and Ayton are talented centers. But their games are super different. Gobert is a defensive monster who mostly scores on alley-oops, put backs, and screen rolls. Ayton is a bigger stronger offensive player with a lower center of gravity. You can throw it to him down low and let him manufacture a basket. Ayton is a good defender, but Gobert is a perennial DPOY candidate. They are very different kinds of centers.

(31) Ingles - Ariza

Both are shooting forwards, but Ariza is much different defensively from Ingles, who mostly gets by as an irritant, pushing and shoving his man.

(29) Favors - Anderson

These two are extremely different.

(28) Rubio - Canaan

Other than playing the same position there is not much similarity between Rubio and Canaan. For starters the talent disparity is huge.

And so on. Also Igor Coachoskov wasn't the head coach there, so who knows how similar the systems will be? Anyway, comparing us to Utah is an interesting starting point, but they are so different that I'm not sure they will really relate to each other very much.

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bajanguy008
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Re: The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Post by bajanguy008 »

Interesting Mori
well nice of you to be polite, didn't think my post would be interpreted as comparing player styles. I checked their minutes and then tried to match our roster based on who I think will play similar minutes and hopefully impact the game accordingly.

So as you mentioned with Gobert/Ayton , I'm not comparing how they play but more so the importance to their teams. Like with Gobert, Ayton is going to be our 2nd best player and although Ayton is better offensively the key for us as a team will be his defense. Ayton mentioned that Igor would always be referencing Gobert when explaining to him what he expects of him being the voice and anchor of the D. so like you said, DPOY candidate like Gobert ? Nah but we will need him to be a presence in pick n roll D and rim protection

Same thing with Ingles/Ariza , not that they play the same but responsibilities will be comparable. Ingles is underrated IMO because people maybe overlook his efficiency and he's not flashy but he's always up there in 3pt % and we will need Ariza to knock down a good % for us. the big difference in roles between the two is Ingles play making ability as he lead the Jazz in asts quite often, that's not Trevor's game which is where Josh comes in as seen in Preseason there's opportunities in Igor's offense for a SG/SF to avg around 4-5 asts.

That leads me to everyone's biggest area of concern which is point guard. Rubio's vision and feel for the game is obviously on another level to Canaan's but I would have posted this earlier in the summer that he avged his lowest asts total last season because the motion offense doesn't require a point guard dominating the ball. Rubio hitting the 3 last yr and looking to score when defenses help off him was just as important as his playmaking which for me is why Canaan got chosen over Shaq as the better shooter. bottom line is we are going to need Point Book to work in some capacity much like how Mitchell often initiated the pick n roll for them. Shaq unfortunately wasn't a fit cause he can't hit the 3 and in preseason it was tough to watch him miss Ayton on the roll or not make a accurate pass to a shooter if Ayton drew the defense when he rolled so yes Crawford is 38 but I rather him be on the court instead of Shaq/Reed or still here Daniels.

so just clarifying what I was getting at in my attempt to compare the teams but like I said in my original post the bottom line is even though I do think we improve our ppg the guys need to play some semblance of D. obviously we have couple guys who can be liabilities there but I tend to take the simplistic view sometimes that it is a effort/energy thing which was why I was concerned in couple games during the preseason to hear we looked flat/disinterested. anyways way too long a post but I hope others at least get an idea where I'm coming from if it wasn't clear before 8-)
SUNS Fan from the Land of Sun, Sea and Sand ;)

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pickle
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Re: The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Post by pickle »

I hope we aren't gonna give Anderson 29, Canaan 28, and Josh 17 minutes per game...

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JCSunsfan
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Re: The Maybe if We're Lucky Thread

Post by JCSunsfan »

Igor is the pg whisperer. Rubio was a negative asset and he turned him into a positive one.

He is going to turn Canaan into a solid starter in this league.

Caution: Crazy optimistic unreasonable homer part of me speaking here.

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