Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

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bajanguy008
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by bajanguy008 »

As others have said
There has to be some adjustments made as there is no way Nuggets have shown everything in one game.

Someone said that there's not much teams can do when he have a 4th scorer which is what is so kool to see Mikal growth. Most teams during the regular season would put a small player or their weakest defender on Mikal because he doesn't feature much in the offense. He started to adjust to this and has become really good at just taking a couple dribbles, slowly and methodically I might add lol but because it's a smaller defender he's able to work to the middle n rise up

The issue with Lakers was that LeBron is the person they "rest" on D so he took Mikal. Obviously Mikal can't walk down LeBron into the midrange so with defending LeBron so much he didn't have the advantage on offense

The Nuggets definitely not gonna put one of their stronger defenders on him instead of Book n CP3 so interested to see how Game 2 plays out
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ShelC
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by ShelC »

Monte Morris may get more minutes, they may get Barton back for a little more scoring punch. But yea, unless they can get DA in foul trouble or he doesn't show up mentally so Jokic can get off, I don't know. It felt like we were fine letting AG get his points, but he's not really a takeover guy. MPJ may get hot but he's probably not winning a game by himself. Their 3pt shooting doesn't really scare me even if a few more shots start falling.

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bajanguy008
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by bajanguy008 »

My only issue with Mikal which also surprise surprise Avatar Bro also doing it, maybe watching Mikal too close but they have attacked persons closing out and have the two dribble pull up but try a shuffle pass to the big.

Both have gotten turnovers I think the last 3 games doing that and it drives me crazy especially as couple times the dish was for Frank or Dario. Just take the jumper

Cam P is so hyped up, Bless him lol. Got a lil carried away a couple times but we need that spark he gives so hopefully he settles down next game
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Mori Chu
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Mori Chu »

Last night at one point I felt like Denver was really hitting their 3s, like every open shot they got was going in. Then they showed the stats and Denver was like 7 for 22. I guess I just have a biased perspective. :)

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bajanguy008
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by bajanguy008 »

ShelC wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:33 am
Monte Morris may get more minutes, they may get Barton back for a little more scoring punch. But yea, unless they can get DA in foul trouble or he doesn't show up mentally so Jokic can get off, I don't know. It felt like we were fine letting AG get his points, but he's not really a takeover guy. MPJ may get hot but he's probably not winning a game by himself. Their 3pt shooting doesn't really scare me even if a few more shots start falling.
Someone else said it
MPJ is a ridiculous talent but wow that shot selection was :shock:
Thing is one or two games those off balance ones might be dropping
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Split T
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Split T »

Mori Chu wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:39 am
Last night at one point I felt like Denver was really hitting their 3s, like every open shot they got was going in. Then they showed the stats and Denver was like 7 for 22. I guess I just have a biased perspective. :)
Started 3 for 4…then it was 3/11 at one point, so they definitely went cold
Split: I would trade DA for SGA right now(11-24-2020)

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Split T
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Split T »

ShelC wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:33 am
Monte Morris may get more minutes, they may get Barton back for a little more scoring punch. But yea, unless they can get DA in foul trouble or he doesn't show up mentally so Jokic can get off, I don't know. It felt like we were fine letting AG get his points, but he's not really a takeover guy. MPJ may get hot but he's probably not winning a game by himself. Their 3pt shooting doesn't really scare me even if a few more shots start falling.
I think they need Barton badly. Mostly because they need another defender. Right now they have basically just Gordon in that starting lineup. If he takes Book, then the combination of Rivers/Campazzo/MPJ is on CP3/Bridges/Crowder. That’s at least 2 major mismatches and the suns abused the nuggets for it in the 2nd half.

Barton is someone they can put on Book and that frees Gordon up to defend Mikal or Crowder and keeps him more available to help at the rim. We’d still have at least 1 mismatch as Campazzo is still on CP3 and the closing version we saw of CP3 will torch Campazzo.
Split: I would trade DA for SGA right now(11-24-2020)

Cap: I wouldn’t. Somebody remember to check this post in five years and see which of us looks the fool.

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ShelC
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by ShelC »

Oddly enough, even when the Nugs were up or going on a run I never felt like we were in trouble or the game was getting out of reach. I thought f we just hit some more shots and clean a few things up defensively, we could take the game over - which we did in the 2nd half.

DA's speed up and down the floor was fun to watch. He lagged behind a few times which hurt us on a few possessions, but overall, he was sprinting end to end like a small forward. It almost looks like he's in tip top shape, which could be scary going forward. Still fumbled a few passes and he tends to make things more difficult for himself around the basket rather than going straight up, but he stepped up in a big way and looked ready for the challenge against Jokic.

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Nodack »

The crowd was awesome! The combination of being in the playoffs for the first time in over a decade, the planet being in lockdown for a year and the Suns kicking ass has these fans whipped into a frenzy.

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Split T »

ShelC wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:53 am
Oddly enough, even when the Nugs were up or going on a run I never felt like we were in trouble or the game was getting out of reach. I thought f we just hit some more shots and clean a few things up defensively, we could take the game over - which we did in the 2nd half.

DA's speed up and down the floor was fun to watch. He lagged behind a few times which hurt us on a few possessions, but overall, he was sprinting end to end like a small forward. It almost looks like he's in tip top shape, which could be scary going forward. Still fumbled a few passes and he tends to make things more difficult for himself around the basket rather than going straight up, but he stepped up in a big way and looked ready for the challenge against Jokic.
I was never nervous like I was in the Laker series. I had a friend text me because they were worried and I just didn’t feel the same. Even when we were down 9-10, I knew we could get back in the game…I think I also know that we can beat Denver, even with Denver at their best, so losing a game isn’t the worst thing. I’m feeling more confident that we could take this series in 5. I’d still guess it goes 6, but suns in 5 won’t surprise me at all.
Split: I would trade DA for SGA right now(11-24-2020)

Cap: I wouldn’t. Somebody remember to check this post in five years and see which of us looks the fool.

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Mori Chu
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Mori Chu »

Denver is still really good, and they still have the MVP leading them. I think they're going to make some adjustments next game. Maybe they'll place less emphasis on Booker defensively and see if he can beat them all by himself. I still think Chris Paul looks like he isn't 100% and teams should sag way off him. I realize he had 20+ points last night, but still, I'd rather have him shooting than Book or Crowder etc.

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ShelC
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by ShelC »

Yea I dont want to discount Denver at all, but there are just more favorable matchups for us.

Paul looked very close to pre-injury CP in the 4th, but I still held my breath whenever he was fighting thru screens. Denver may try to get him into more action to bang him up a bit. But similar to the regular season, it looked like he was just biding his time until the 4th when he came out firing to help put the Nuggets away. Rather than taking shots throughout the game and being on the Nuggets' radar, he let himself become an afterthought until it was time to strike.

JeremyG
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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by JeremyG »

Indy wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:40 pm
Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:27 pm
Playing and beating the Lakers was such a high. All I can say about this game is that I hope the Suns are more engaged in it than I am.
Based on the number of original tickets (not resale) that are on ticketmaster right now, I am thinking the fan base won't be that engaged either.

There are even dozens in the lower bowl under 250 including all the stupid ticketmaster fees.
You had me worried, but the fans ended up being a main story in the media.

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by JeremyG »

Regarding MPJ, we don't even know if he will be healthy the rest of the series.


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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by AmareIsGod »

What is smallball? I play basketball. I'm not a regular big man. I can switch from the center to the guards. The game is evolving. You got dudes like Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, all these 7-footers, doing everything. There's no stopping us. - Ayton

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Indy »

Split T wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 9:19 am
So what’s Denver’s answer defensively? We looked like we figured them out in the 2nd half. Unless they get some guys back, I’m not sure there’s much they can do, they really only start one good defender. I don’t think we’ll have a problem scoring, if we defend, we win.

Denver will play better offensively, but I think we have the defense to keep them at bay.
NERD ALERT

So I wasted some time today looking at Denver's record based on how Jokic plays. (Of course they do better when he plays well...)

So I thought this was interesting (see the image):

KEY:
Orange line = Denver win percentage this year (65.3%)
Blue line = Win % when Jokic has the stat listed (8-9 assists, or 3 TOs, etc.)
Gray bars = Number of games where Jokic recorded that stat (13 games this year he scored 24-27 points)

Any time the blue line is higher than the orange line, the team wins more often than their average. Opposite when it is below.

Most of the individual stats do not correlate on their own to a big shift in the overall win percentage.

Except Rebounds.
  • In 39% of their games this year (28/72) Jokic grabbed >=12 boards. They won 86% of those games.
  • In 33% of their games (24/72) Jokic grabbed <10 boards. They were 46% in those.
  • A 40% swing in win percentage is pretty big over just a couple boards. And it is decent sample size.
Not as big of a swing, but for FGAs:
  • 26 games he took <16 shots--Result was 73% win.
  • 27 games he took >18 shots--Result was 55.6% win.
  • Still over 50, but nearly 20% less than when he shoots less.

If you combine those, you can find 19 games where he took more than 16 shots and grabbed under 10 boards. They only won 37% of those games.

tl;dl

Force him to shoot a lot and keep him off the boards and you have twice the chance of a win. (I know these two stats seem intuitive, but I was surprised to see that limiting his assists, or increasing his TOs, or making him score, or keeping him from scoring, don't really change the chance of you beating them.)

Image
Last edited by Indy on Tue Jun 08, 2021 7:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

Post by Indy »

JeremyG wrote:
Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:18 am
Indy wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 5:40 pm
Flagrant Fowl wrote:
Mon Jun 07, 2021 4:27 pm
Playing and beating the Lakers was such a high. All I can say about this game is that I hope the Suns are more engaged in it than I am.
Based on the number of original tickets (not resale) that are on ticketmaster right now, I am thinking the fan base won't be that engaged either.

There are even dozens in the lower bowl under 250 including all the stupid ticketmaster fees.
You had me worried, but the fans ended up being a main story in the media.
I was very worried. I was so pleasantly surprised. I talked to a friend that was there and she said it was unreal.

If things go well, I will be there tomorrow and hopefully won't be able to talk on Thursday.

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

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Dominayton

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

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The Maestro

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Re: Game Day Playoff Edition — Round 2, Game 1 — Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns, Monday 6/7/2021

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