Game Day Playoff Edition - WCF Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers Game III Thursday June 24

[LVSunsFAN]

Thanks to the Crowder - Ayton Alley-oop that will live in Suns memory for decades to come Phoenix is on a franchise record 9 play-off game winning streak, and up 2-0 in the series. CP3 (or is it CP4th now?) is expected back to lead the charge. Let's see if he can remember his favorite spot at the top of the key that destroyed the Nuggets.



Time: Thursday, June 24, 6 pm AZ (9 pm ET)
Place: Staples Center, Los Angeles, CA (where we won 2 straight these Play-offs after that little warm-up game)
TV: ESPN

GO SUNS (in 4)!!!

Dis • cuss

[Flagrant Fowl]

Usually I'd be worried about the wings shooting below their average away from home, but they were bad in the last game and they won even without Chris Paul. They also just went to LA twice in the first round and won 2 of 3 games there.

I hope the Suns are ready for Beverley. I worry that he injures someone or gets them suspended before accepting defeat 4 times.

[pickle]

You know how they say a certain type of player you would hate on other teams but love on your own? Well I wouldn’t really feel too comfortable with Beverley on the suns.

[JustWinBaby]

I just hope they call a few of Paul Georges push offs and bull rushes a foul. They certainly would call them fouls on Booker and they have.

I wonder who they are going to have guard CP3. It should be Beverly. If he does I expect that it is going to be very interesting. I expect that Jackson will guard him though. If so I hope CP3 can bait him into foul trouble.

If we allow them to shoot over 40% from 3 we could be in trouble.

[Superbone]

Awesome thread, LVSF! Let’s do this!

[England Sun]

Let’s go guys.

Suns in 4!!!

[Superbone]

Like I said in the Realist thread, the Clippers think they can come back from 0-2 three times in a row? Let’s just smash them now and let them know what’s what. Let’s knock the wind out of their sails. Go Suns!!!

[ShelC]

If you're the Clips and you were told you'd be playing the Suns without Chris Paul to start the series, you'd have to think you'd come away at least 1-1, maybe even up 2-0 going back to LA. So from a psych standpoint, I think this is different than playing Dallas and Portland because the reinforcements are coming in the form of Chris Paul. It's that much more deflating and a different 0-2 than before.

Both games were winnable for them, especially the 2nd one, but no luck. Have we seen their best? Felt like Game 1 was close to their best with PG going off yet they lost. And they still managed to keep it close with him not as good in Game 2 but couldn't steal one. Jackson has played well but I just don't know where they get other offense from. Mann, Morris, Batum, Kennard aren't exactly consistent, reliable scorers. They'd need at least 1-2 of those guys to really catch fire and shoot well to give them some more punch. And it's not like they've even shot poorly from 3 either. They've shot better than us from 3 in both games.

So either a bunch of their guys need to get hot and hit their 3s and/or we need to come out flat and not take them seriously and let them back in the series.

[pickle]

No injuries please.

[Wormwood]

Tonight's game is basically do-or-die for the Clippers. No team has ever come back from being down 3-0 in the NBA playoffs. Already, the Clippers have beat long odds coming back from 2-0 deficits. Historically, the Suns are in a good position: when the team with home court advantage wins the first two games of a series, they go on to win the series about 94% of the time. This stat doesn't mean nearly as much when talking about LA, though: given they're used to being in this situation.

Given the Clippers performance in the last game, and the Suns looked discombobulated most of the game, I'd be picking the Clippers today. However, several things work in the Suns favor:

1. Chris Paul is coming back. The Suns are absolutely a different team with him, and rarely look like they don't know what they're doing. He's a top end defender to put on Reggie Jackson (Payne is okay-ish, but he's no CP3 on defense). Sure, he could be rusty, but this is the Point God. At this stage in his career, he's forgotten more about playing PG than most people will ever learn. My gut feeling says its more likely that he comes back into his old house, fresh, rested, healed up, going against a team that hasn't had a break in a month. My suspicion is that Paul's relative energy is going to impress us, the way Booker's did in game 1. After that game 1 shoulder stinger, CP3 has now had 10 days of rest. Remember how Nash always bounced back hard in the playoffs when given an extra day of rest? Kind of like that. I expect the Suns to be playing at another level tonight.

2. TL:DR: Suns negate the home court advantage. Suns are the best road team in the NBA. Their road record was 24-12, vs. the Clippers home record of 26-10, and that doesn't even tell the whole story: four of those road losses came early in the season when they went 8-8 and were still figuring out how to play together. After that start, they went a blinding 43-13. That's a 63 win pace in an 82 game season. They're 10-2 in the playoffs, and 4-1 on the road so far.

3. The Suns shot 6-26 from three point range in game 2. If they were hitting at 35%, the game wouldn't have been particularly close (they'd have won by about 10). If the Suns can keep playing their usual level of defense, and hit threes at a regular rate, they should be in good shape. Another reason why I think the Suns are likely to bounce back at the 3-point line is CP3: Payne has been great, but Paul is a master at running an offense and finding the right man. The Suns are likely to see even more wide open 3 point looks. Sure, the Clippers shot a LITTLE below their normal rate, if both teams shot their average last game it still would have been a Suns blowout.

4. Less turnovers. CP3 is the second best PG in league history in A/TO ratio. Last game, Booker had 8. With primary ball handling duties going to CP3 tonight, that's going to go way down. I expect this to contribute to how much better the Suns play tonight. While Payne had 0 turnovers, if we always have either Payne or CP3 on the court at PG, it's going to make life a lot easier.

5. No E-Tuan Moore. 'Nuff said.

6. No Scott Foster. That's worth like 4-5 points right there.

7. The two other times the Clipper won game 3 during these playoffs, they were doing it against teams that weren't making any major changes between games 2-3. Adding a fresh CP3 to the starting lineup is a BIG freaking change. The Clippers are great at making adjustments between games where nothing changes. They're losing when confronted with something new.

8. Injuries. Suns are at full strength. Clips are down Leonard, Ibaka, and Morris Sr. is hobbled with a knee injury and wasn't a big factor last game. Yeah, the Clippers have depth, but they're down 3 in the front court.

But, because I'm feeling mildly positive and I'm always wrong, we must surely be doomed.

[jonh]

WORMWOODS ON THE BANDWAGON!

Let’s go!

[Mori Chu]

[Mori Chu]

Polly says, Suns in Fo! GO SUNS!!

[Superbone]

Polly says, Suns in Fo! GO SUNS!!

I can tell that Polly is really getting into it more and more the further the Suns are going into the playoffs. Tough not to when they are undefeated in her lifetime.

[Nodack]

Polly is undefeated.

[Cap]

The latest odds.

Game 3:

 -115 (51.1%) Suns
 -105 (48.9%) Clippers

Series:

 -800 (85.2%) Suns
 +550 (14.8%) Clippers

Championship:

 +110 (44.6%) Suns
 +145 (38.2%) Bucks
 +750 (11.0%) Hawks
+1400 ( 6.2%) Clippers

538's take:

[Superbone]

Tonight's game is basically do-or-die for the Clippers. No team has ever come back from being down 3-0 in the NBA playoffs. Already, the Clippers have beat long odds coming back from 2-0 deficits. Historically, the Suns are in a good position: when the team with home court advantage wins the first two games of a series, they go on to win the series about 94% of the time. This stat doesn't mean nearly as much when talking about LA, though: given they're used to being in this situation.

Somebody (NBATV? ESPN?) was talking about how Lue teams hold the record, and it's not even close, of coming back from down 0-2. I think it's 4 times and the next closest coach is 2 times. That doesn't sound like a badge of honor to me. Not great that you let your team get into so many holes even if they have come back the most times. Something to watch anyway. Supposedly, he's the master of adjustments. However, like you said, this is different as we're getting stronger with one of the best point guards of all time rejoining the team.

But, because I'm feeling mildly positive and I'm always wrong, we must surely be doomed.

I don't think so. Somehow, I don't think you have much impact on the Suns' outcomes.

[Superbone]

The latest odds.

Game 3:

 -115 (51.1%) Suns
 -105 (48.9%) Clippers

Awesome that we're favored tonight, even if slight, on their home court in LA. Speaking of which, BEAT LA!

If it has to come down to another buzzer beater, so be it!

[Cap]

Forgot to include 538's take on the game:

[Superbone]

They LOOK nice enough: