Phx-Suns.Net

What do you think is going to happen with Ayton? Let me know if you think I'm missing an option.

I think he's gone before the season.

I think we are going to be forced to match.

Indy wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:13 pm

I think we are going to be forced to match.

...and then?

Superbone wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:25 pm

Indy wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:13 pm

I think we are going to be forced to match.

...and then?

trade him at the deadline.

What will happen: Suns trade him before season.

What should happen: Suns match an offer and keep their options open (unless they get a great trade offer off the bat).

Shabazz wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:27 pm

What will happen: Suns trade him before season.

What should happen: Suns match an offer and keep their options open (unless they get a great trade offer off the bat).

Do you think his value will go up as the season goes on?

I think we'll keep him, having forced to match an unfavorable offer sheet, which will also make him unlikely to be traded till next season.

wpmiller42 wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:45 pm

I think we'll keep him, having forced to match an unfavorable offer sheet, which will also make him unlikely to be traded till next season.

Yep, if they match an offer they can't trade him without his consent for a year. Base year makes it complicated anyway.

I predict the Suns ultimately sign Ayton. They clearly don't see him as a max player (and I can't fault that logic), but I don't see a deal that makes the Suns a better team. In my mind, the Suns are working toward the 4 year, 5% raise max that other teams can offer rather then the 5 year 8% max they can offer. In other words, the deal they wanted last summer. They have all the leverage to get it and don't need to pay more.

Tweets about the Suns looking for a sign and trade or that they won't match are likely coming from Ayton's agent. He's posturing to get another team to offer the max, since it's quite possible that no team will offer it to him if they know that the Suns will match.

Regarding what happens after signing, that's hard to say. With a higher salary after the BYC rule expires, its easier to get a player of comparable worth, so I wouldn't exclude that from happening. The smart move is to keep their options open. But, I don't believe that a future trade will be their intent at the time of signing.

I'm more worried about what happens to Cam Johnson. But, I think the Suns make other moves to reduce salary and ultimately keep Cam.

The Bobster wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:54 pm

wpmiller42 wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:45 pm

I think we'll keep him, having forced to match an unfavorable offer sheet, which will also make him unlikely to be traded till next season.

Yep, if they match an offer they can't trade him without his consent for a year. Base year makes it complicated anyway.

As I understand it, they can't trade him to the team that signed the offer sheet for one year, but they can trade him to another team after Dec 15.

Carno wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:56 pm

The Bobster wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:54 pm

wpmiller42 wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:45 pm

I think we'll keep him, having forced to match an unfavorable offer sheet, which will also make him unlikely to be traded till next season.

Yep, if they match an offer they can't trade him without his consent for a year. Base year makes it complicated anyway.

As I understand it, they can't trade him to the team that signed the offer sheet for one year, but they can trade him to another team after Dec 15.

I think this is right.

Indy wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:31 pm

Shabazz wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 12:27 pm

What will happen: Suns trade him before season.

What should happen: Suns match an offer and keep their options open (unless they get a great trade offer off the bat).

Do you think his value will go up as the season goes on?

Whether it goes up, down or stays neutral, we can extract more value from trading him then by not being subject to the BYC rules.

Nice posts, Carno. You should post more often!

From NBA Salary Cap FAQ (http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm) -

"If a team matches an offer sheet and retains its free agent, then for one year they cannot trade him without his consent, and during that year cannot trade him at all to the team that signed him to the offer sheet."

So if a team wants him, the Suns should be making it clear that they're fine with matching any offers and keeping him (even if they aren't) in order to get the best S&T offers possible.

And if Ayton really wants to go somewhere else in particular he'd better hope that team is willing to compensate the Suns fairly because there's no assurances that he'll get to choose his landing spot before his next contract runs out.

The Bobster wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:23 pm

From NBA Salary Cap FAQ (http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm) -

"If a team matches an offer sheet and retains its free agent, then for one year they cannot trade him without his consent, and during that year cannot trade him at all to the team that signed him to the offer sheet."

So it kind of benefits both teams to do a S&T unless said team has too much cap space to actually spend it.

The Bobster wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:23 pm

From NBA Salary Cap FAQ (http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm) -

"If a team matches an offer sheet and retains its free agent, then for one year they cannot trade him without his consent, and during that year cannot trade him at all to the team that signed him to the offer sheet."

I've totally missed this part over the course of all the discussion and I think it's a huge piece of leverage for the Suns. We know Ayton wants the max and if reports are to be believed, he wants a bigger role. I think both can be achieved if the Suns match any offer, and trade him to Brooklyn under the assumption that Ayton will be sold on playing there with a bigger role.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:48 pm

The Bobster wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:23 pm

From NBA Salary Cap FAQ (http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm) -

"If a team matches an offer sheet and retains its free agent, then for one year they cannot trade him without his consent, and during that year cannot trade him at all to the team that signed him to the offer sheet."

I've totally missed this part over the course of all the discussion and I think it's a huge piece of leverage for the Suns. We know Ayton wants the max and if reports are to be believed, he wants a bigger role. I think both can be achieved if the Suns match any offer, and trade him to Brooklyn under the assumption that Ayton will be sold on playing there with a bigger role.

But matching the max offer vs what they can give him in a S&T is a difference of like 40M right?

Indy wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:50 pm

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:48 pm

The Bobster wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:23 pm

From NBA Salary Cap FAQ (http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm) -

"If a team matches an offer sheet and retains its free agent, then for one year they cannot trade him without his consent, and during that year cannot trade him at all to the team that signed him to the offer sheet."

I've totally missed this part over the course of all the discussion and I think it's a huge piece of leverage for the Suns. We know Ayton wants the max and if reports are to be believed, he wants a bigger role. I think both can be achieved if the Suns match any offer, and trade him to Brooklyn under the assumption that Ayton will be sold on playing there with a bigger role.

But matching the max offer vs what they can give him in a S&T is a difference of like 40M right?

The numbers that stick in my head are 5% raises for 4 years ($131 million). Resigning him themselves would be 8% raises for a maximum of 5 years ($177 million).