Is Devin Booker a Serious Candidate for Rookie of the Year?

[Superbone]

I was just thinking about this yesterday. I believe he is. It appears that he's going to get serious minutes from here on out. He's putting up big numbers and I believe he's leading all rookies in scoring since January 1st. If he can continue at his current pace, I could see him being one of the top candidates for NBA Rookie of the Year.

[carey]

A candidate? Sure. Serious? Not really. They've already given it to KAT from the most part. The media loves that dude.

[Superbone]

A candidate? Sure. Serious? Not really. They've already given it to KAT from the most part. The media loves that dude.

Come on! We're not even at the all-star break yet.

[Mori Chu]

KAT would have to regress. He has run away with it so far. And the media is slow to change their narrative on these things, especially if the rookie plays for a disastrous franchise that is unpopular right now. The Wolves are a feel-good story and are playing for their dead coach/GM. Plus they have popular faces in Wiggins, Rubio, and Lavine the dunk machine.

[carey]

A candidate? Sure. Serious? Not really. They've already given it to KAT from the most part. The media loves that dude.

Come on! We're not even at the all-star break yet.

What does the all-star break matter? It is not the mid-point of the season. Teams are usually 53-55 games in by that point with less than 30 games to go. Maybe if he somehow averaged 20ppg the rest of the way and KAT gets injured?

[Superbone]

A candidate? Sure. Serious? Not really. They've already given it to KAT from the most part. The media loves that dude.

Come on! We're not even at the all-star break yet.

What does the all-star break matter? It is not the mid-point of the season. Teams are usually 53-55 games in by that point with less than 30 games to go. Maybe if he somehow averaged 20ppg the rest of the way and KAT gets injured?

Still way too early for the media to have made up their minds. It's not how you start, it's how you finish. If Booker out performs him the rest of the year, I could see him getting it.

[The Bobster]

No.

He's a nice player, but he's nowhere close to Towns (16.5 points, 9.9 rebounds) or even Porzingas (13.6 points, 7.56 rebounds) at this point. With the increased minutes he's likely to play in the second half I'd say he's almost a lock for the All-Rookie Team, but I'm not going any further than that.

[carey]

Yeah, the NY media are all going to vote Porzingis. However, lets say he averages almost 20ppg as a starter (which would take some work,) then I could see him coming in second.

[Mori Chu]

His current numbers aren't even close. 10.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 2.0 RPG.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3136193/devin-booker

Compared to KAT, who averages 16.5 PPG, 9.9 RPG (!), and 1.8 blocks (!).

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3136 ... hony-towns

KAT would have to get injured, like, tomorrow, and Book would have to suddenly start scoring 25 PPG every night for the next 30 games. I don't see it.

[carey]

Since becoming a starter on 12/28 he's shooting 44% from the field but his 3-point fg% has dipped to 35%. He's scoring 16.7ppg and 2.6apg. I expect him to adjust to being defended by the opposing SG and play better going forward but that's already really good for a 19-year-old.

[Cap]

His current numbers aren't even close. 10.5 PPG, 1.5 APG, 2.0 RPG.

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3136193/devin-booker

Compared to KAT, who averages 16.5 PPG, 9.9 RPG (!), and 1.8 blocks (!).

http://espn.go.com/nba/player/_/id/3136 ... hony-towns

KAT would have to get injured, like, tomorrow, and Book would have to suddenly start scoring 25 PPG every night for the next 30 games. I don't see it.

KAT is even shooting threes at a .391 clip, not far at all behind Booker's .417. He also shoots a much better percentage inside the arc, and a better percentage from the line.

[Mori Chu]

Since becoming a starter on 12/28 he's shooting 44% from the field but his 3-point fg% has dipped to 35%. He's scoring 16.7ppg and 2.6apg. I expect him to adjust to being defended by the opposing SG and play better going forward but that's already really good for a 19-year-old.

Hey, I hear you. I love Booker. He's amazing. He's a future star and a great rookie.

But even if he continues to score 16.7 PPG or a bit more, he will never come close to passing KAT in scoring, to say nothing of the 10 boards a game KAT is putting up. The RoY race is over, over, over.

[TOO]

Its Towns' to lose, that kid is well on his way to being one of the 5 best in the world. He's special. Booker finishing top 3 would be nice, especially since the NBA didn't deem him worthy of a rookie/soph game spot. Fuckers.

[Superbone]

Yeah, the NY media are all going to vote Porzingis. However, lets say he averages almost 20ppg as a starter (which would take some work,) then I could see him coming in second.

Good point about the NY media voting for Porzingis.

[Aztec Sunsfan]

He is good, but not that good. He has no impact on our results, neither is producing at levels that turn heads outside the Phoenix fandom.

[In2ition]

I think he's turning heads, but he's not going to win it. He's way too far behind KAT and Zinger.

I have more hope for the future of the Suns than I did last year at this time, and a lot of that has to do with them being much worse this year and knowing that they have a future star on the roster in Booker.

[Superbone]

He is good, but not that good. He has no impact on our results...

And Towns does?

[Shabazz]

As everyone else is saying, I think the best we can hope for is All Rookie First Team, and I think he has a good shot at that considering the other guards in consideration. It's been a much better class for bigs.

[Gladiator]

Has anyone got ESPN Insider access? There's an article on the NBA's most surprising rookies, with a pic of Booker.

[Split T]

Here is the stuff on Booker

Booker hasn't kept up his 50 percent 3-point shooting from the first two months, when he was more selective. But he has done a better job as a starter of hunting 3-point attempts, which will make him a bigger contributor going forward. He also has shown more ability to create his own shot off the dribble than he did as strictly a spot-up shooter at Kentucky.

Chad, did playing with so much talent lead teams to underestimate Booker and Lyles?

Ford: Yes, I think the roles they played at Kentucky made it a little more difficult for scouts to get a great read. Not only did they play more limited minutes and with a ton of other talent, they also had their roles more narrowly defined than normal for such highly ranked players out of high school.

Booker was drafted as a shooter and looked pretty one-dimensional at Kentucky. But his high basketball IQ probably went underrated. Booker sees the game, which allows him to be more of a playmaker than we ever saw in college.

I'm a little worried about Booker's poor RPM, however. He ranks 418th out of 439 players. We've dinged Jahlil Okafor and Emmanuel Mudiay for their low RPMs. Should we be giving Booker a pass?

Pelton: Definitely a valid question. Booker doesn't come out well by Basketball-Reference.com's box plus-minus (which tries to estimate adjusted plus-minus from box score stats) or my wins above replacement player (WARP) stat, either.

Some of the same issues that plagued his WARP projection coming out of Kentucky remain problematic. Despite good size for a shooting guard, Booker is a poor defensive rebounder, and his curious allergy to steals has carried over too.

That explains Booker's negative defensive ratings, but he also scores as fairly average offensively despite his high-percentage 3-point shooting. As comfortable as he has looked handling the ball, even running the offense with the Suns short on point guards, Booker's assist rate is below average for a shooting guard.

I have a hard time believing a shooter as good as Booker won't be a major offensive weapon. He's the youngest player in the league, having turned 19 early in the season, so he has time to develop. However, the discrepancy between how Booker is viewed and his all-in-one metrics may persist throughout his career.