Re: Cardinals
Posted: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:21 pm
Only an idiot would've predicted 3-3 for this team.
Great question. Our last two opponents are 2 for 10 on 4th down against us. You'd think the numbers would indicate it's a bad idea and yet teams keep going for it on 4th against us. Screw em. If they want to keep turning it over to us, have at it!
Analytics has hit the NFL too. It's saying that the odds are for the teams to go for it on 4th down.
I've noticed this too. Every time the Cards win big against a team that was favored over them, the story is about how bad the favored team played and they aren't ready to give credit to the Cards and how well they are playing. It's been happening since Game 1 this season. Look at how Derrick Henry is crushing the league with over 783 yards in only 7 games, but he only got 58 yards vs. the Cards. Against everyone else, his lowest rush total in a game was almost double that.AmareIsGod wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:09 amIt's crazy how the talking heads have been harping solely on the Browns and how bad they played instead of hearing about the Cardinals and how well they played. I'd love to get a little Cardinals content but it's hard to find. 6 and 0.
I get it, it's not working out well for opponents of the Cards, so the analytics must be wrong. I think they said in the game that the Cards were 6th in 4th down defense this yr and 4th downs were successful vs. the Cards 30% of the time. Of course, this is going to improve a little after the Browns game. It's something that has been going on and studied for yrs. I think it started with a HS coach somewhere in the midwest that figured out that kickoffs and punts were for suckers. They do onside kicks every time and always go for it on 4th down. They ended up being really successful to it, and he said he made that decision based on the math. Honestly, the NFL is pretty conservative and it's hard for them to adopt these types of changes to thinking.
You have to feel great about the defense as well as the individual play of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. What’s worrisome is an offensive system that requires the quarterback to maintain an MVP level over 17 games. They’ve been great, but they’ve also been fortunate along the way. The Cardinals are converting a lot of third and very longs while also stopping opponents on fourth downs at an unsustainable rate (10 of 14 so far, league average usually hovers around 50%). They’ve recovered 18 of 23 fumbles (expected fumble recovery rate for any team is 50%). Between fourth-down defense and fumble recoveries they’re stealing two possessions per game so far. They’re the only team in football to have opposing kickers miss three attempts inside 50 yards, one of two teams to have opposing kickers miss four PATs, and are top 10 in offensive and defensive red-zone efficiency, typically a volatile stat unless you have a Derrick Henry on your roster. In many ways, it smells a bit like the 2020 edition—albeit with a better defense. But, mostly, they’re 6–0, which actually counts even more than their position in some guy’s power rankings.
I tend to agree with you on this, but I guess the league average is like 50%, per the snippet above.
I get the feeling that these "experts" feel the same about the Cards as many do about the Suns. They will continue to make excuse after excuse as to why they aren't good, even though the results don't exactly favor their arguments. "Cards aren't good. They will go into opposing stadium of favored team and get exposed....Oh, they destroyed favored team on the road? FLUKE...FLUKE...FLUKE, I TELL YOU!!! Let me look and figure out how they are flukes."AmareIsGod wrote: ↑Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:06 amNice! Cardinals have climbed up to number 7 in the NFL Power Rankings!
https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/10/19/nfl-p ... ngs-week-7
7. Arizona Cardinals (6—0)
Last week: Win at Cleveland, 37–14
Next week: vs. Houston
You have to feel great about the defense as well as the individual play of Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. What’s worrisome is an offensive system that requires the quarterback to maintain an MVP level over 17 games. They’ve been great, but they’ve also been fortunate along the way. The Cardinals are converting a lot of third and very longs while also stopping opponents on fourth downs at an unsustainable rate (10 of 14 so far, league average usually hovers around 50%). They’ve recovered 18 of 23 fumbles (expected fumble recovery rate for any team is 50%). Between fourth-down defense and fumble recoveries they’re stealing two possessions per game so far. They’re the only team in football to have opposing kickers miss three attempts inside 50 yards, one of two teams to have opposing kickers miss four PATs, and are top 10 in offensive and defensive red-zone efficiency, typically a volatile stat unless you have a Derrick Henry on your roster. In many ways, it smells a bit like the 2020 edition—albeit with a better defense. But, mostly, they’re 6–0, which actually counts even more than their position in some guy’s power rankings.