Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

[Cap]

If the flu with no quarantine kills 30-40k in a year and the covid WITH a complete shutdown and quarantine kills over 100k in two months, then that should tell you that covid is much deadlier.

In the long run, it’s the growth rate that matters, not the current level. If it continues its post-lockdown pattern of doubling every 2-3 weeks, it won’t be long until 100K looks like nothing. And hospitals at 85% capacity could be at 100% capacity in very little time.

[JeremyG]

It’s that attitude that makes it so hard to go to work everyday and come home and isolate from my family including my newborn. To protect idiots that ignored the advice of the medical community because “they aren’t sheep, my liberties bullshit bullshit bullshit.” Or to tell the family of a loved one they’re dying because kids couldn’t just not go out and party for a few months and they passed it off to him at the grocery store or doctor’s office, etc. And that’s all I’ll say. Delete my post for flaming if desired.

This makes zero sense. The "preemptive quarantine" was never meant to reduce the total number of infections. At best it could only "slow the spread" to give hospitals time to increase capacity. That was the goal, remember, to "flatten the curve" (same number of infections, but over a longer period of time). The virus doesn't just disappear, the same number of people will end up infected no matter how long you drag it on, until you end up with a decent level of herd immunity like New York seems to have reached now.

The only deaths it was intended to prevent were those that might result from hospitals reaching capacity limits (which most states have not gotten close to).

This is why it makes more sense to protect the vulnerable (nursing homes [governors did the opposite!!], the elderly, those with underlying conditions, etc.) and let the rest of the population reach herd immunity. This would likely result in the least amount of deaths and is what many epidemiologists and immunologists recommended.

I believe in the Bill of Rights but, if by exercising your rights you are risking harm to others then I am ok with limiting those rights. People thought they had the right to smoke wherever they want and now that is not the case. Some people like driving 110 mph exercising their rights but, there are laws limiting that too. You can’t yell fire in a crowded theatre. The list goes on. If society says you can’t do something because you might hurt others then I am ok with that. Leaders have to make hard decisions. Most of the world shut down, not to limit peoples freedoms but, to save lives. It’s not that hard to understand.

First of all, the bill of rights doesn’t say shit about pandemics and businesses. So that argument is dumb.

Second, when your actions endanger thousands of other Americans, your liberties can kiss my ass. They just can. You deserve to be incarcerated.

A man tested positive that I saw for corona. He continued to go out and about to buy goods without wearing a mask. He was proud of it. He should be incarcerated and charged with attempted murder. Just filth of a human being.

Just got takeout at a restaurant. Bar was packed, not a single vacant seat. Not a single soul wearing masks, employees included. Some older. Sigh. They all deserve what’s coming to them, but I feel sorry for anyone they come into contact with in the next several weeks.

Someone who knows they are infected should not infect others. But to quarantine healthy people is to declare guilty until proven innocent. It is not American and it was not done for previous pandemics.

Thanks for making my point--the Bill of Rights does not mention pandemics. It contains zero exceptions. The authors of the Constitution had just lived through the North American smallpox pandemic of 1775-1782, which was way more contagious and way more deadly than Covid. They fought for our freedoms during the deadly pandemic, and they did not shut down public assembly. Instead, they guaranteed our right to it in the First Amendment.

Also, do you not care that experts are saying that way more deaths will result from the shutdowns than from the virus? How is it worth it to (supposedly) save lives if it kills more than it saves?

Your post is so full of false statements I don’t know where to begin.

No, the curve is not flattened. Arizona is on the rise. Our hospitals are at 85% capacity already. I know because I work it. Everything else you try to say from there is based on a completely erroneous argument.

You can stop with the bullshit about the bill of rights. It says nothing that the government can’t put the city on lockdown to protect its citizens. It says nothing of masks. It’s from the 1700s it’s so fucking outdated and irrelevant.

Nice try. None of my arguments relied in any way whatsoever on whether or not Arizona has flattened its curve.

And there is no point in arguing with you if you don't even believe in America's highest law of the land and consider it to be "outdated and irrelevant."

[JeremyG]

It’s not outdated and irrelevant, but few of the enumerated rights are absolute; they all have reasonable common sense exceptions. And the rights Jeremy is complaining about aren’t enumerated rights anyway.

Falsely shouting fire in a crowded theater
Slander
Fraud
Perjury
Making terroristic threats
Solicitation to commit a crime (Such as offering somebody money to commit a murder)

These are all forms of speech, which is an enumerated right. These activities consist entirely of opening your mouth and making words come out. Unless Jeremy believes that “freedom of speech” encompasses such conduct, his “zero exceptions” line is nonsense that even he doesn’t believe.

Thank you for your first statement; I refuse to engage with someone who believes that the Bill of Rights is "outdated and irrelevant."

The right to peaceful assembly is enumerated. And if the authors had wanted to make an exception for pandemics, they would have. The fact is that they did not shut down assembly during a much worse pandemic (North American smallpox pandemic of 1775-1782), so we know exactly where the founders stood on this issue.

[JeremyG]

I started typing a response to JeremyG's post, but there was so much in there and so many incorrect statements that I became overwhelmed and just stopped and closed the browser tab.

For one thing, his post oversimplifies the purpose and benefit of doing a quarantine; it not only "flattens the curve" (which we still need to do more of, since case/death rates are still increasing in many parts of the country!), but also gives us time to procure medical equipment, hire/train medical staff, work on and learn about treatments and/or vaccines, educate people about safe and unsafe behaviors so that they will reduce their exposure and spread, on and on. Many many people will alter their actions and will not get sick who would have caught the virus; it is not just that they'll still get it, but later.

Jeremy's post also underestimates the danger of what would happen if folks all just resumed their normal activity. There would be a huge outbreak and would result in hundreds of thousands if not millions of unnecessary deaths. The models of what the virus would do to our country without a quarantine are truly terrifying. You know it is bad when even President Trump, who desperately did not want to shut anything down, was eventually forced to do so. That's all you need to know.

He also perpetuates the incorrect "it's no worse than the flu!" argument that has been repeatedly and thoroughly debunked. It is at least 10-20x as lethal as the flu, has a longer potential incubation period where it is asymptomatic but can still spread, and more. And we have vaccines and treatments for the flu, while we don't for corona. It is much much deadlier than the flu. Yes, the flu did kill many people in some years as well, but you're comparing apples and oranges. If the flu with no quarantine kills 30-40k in a year and the covid WITH a complete shutdown and quarantine kills over 100k in two months, then that should tell you that covid is much deadlier. If we behaved toward covid the way we behave toward the flu (essentially doing nothing), literally millions would die in a year. There's no comparison.

And lastly, I don't think it is at all the majority opinion that the quarantine is somehow causing more deaths than the virus itself (?). I get that economic hardship will lead to some suffering, but not on the scale of millions dead that the virus threatens to wreak on our country.

Re: the last part, I already posted my evidence in the other thread: http://www.phx-suns.net/viewtopic.php?f ... 20#p171614

In case you haven't heard, those alarmist models were completely debunked by software engineers. Again, look at Belarus, a country of 10 million people. There are not millions of deaths (or the equivalent per capita). No lockdowns, and one of the lowest death rates in the world.

And no Covid is not "at least 10-20x as lethal as the flu." As I posted before, the CDC says it is about 3 times as lethal: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... arios.html

And that doesn't even account for the fact that it was spread (by mandate!) to nursing homes, where there would be a way higher death rate.

Yes, there is a flu vaccine--which is 29% effective, so don't get your hopes up for a Covid vaccine (which will also result in deaths by the way).

We had up to 95,000 deaths in the 2017-18 flu season, and a population-adjusted 220,000 deaths from the Asian flu in 1957-58 (with no lockdowns for that pandemic by the way).

[Indy]

Your statements are not accurate, Jeremy.

[specialsauce]

Your statements are not accurate, Jeremy.

I’m done trying to dispute, it’s one thing to be misinformed, another to actively run from the truth.

[Cap]

https://ktar.com/story/3244685/maricopa ... increased/

Maricopa County health official says spread of coronavirus has increased
By Danny Shapiro | June 5, 2020 at 5:00 pm
UPDATED: June 5, 2020 at 5:01 pm

(AP Photo/Aaron Favila)
PHOENIX — Maricopa County’s top public health official said Friday that coronavirus cases in metro Phoenix have increased and that it’s not necessarily due to a testing jump.

Marcy Flanagan, the county’s public health executive director, said there are signs that community spread of COVID-19 is growing beyond what was expected because of the state’s reopening.

“We are starting to see some indicators that the number of COVID-19 cases is increasing in Maricopa County and we have enough information to know these increases are not due to just an increase in testing that is occurring,” Flanagan said during a press conference.

Maricopa County has averaged about 500 new cases over the past four days, including 503 cases on Thursday.

Flanagan said those daily case numbers are higher than normal, even on days when Arizona Testing Blitz numbers have been taken into account.

Hospitalizations in the county due to COVID-19 have also increased, while ICU bed availability has decreased.

Positive test percentage numbers are also increasing and is worrisome, according to Flanagan.

“All of these indicators together tell us there is an increased spread in the community,” Flanagan said.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey on Thursday doubled down on his approach to handling the pandemic, saying he believes his office and public health officials have chosen the best course of action in handling the virus outbreak.

Arizona reported 1,579 new coronavirus cases Friday morning, the most ever in a daily update, and the state’s death toll for the pandemic eclipsed 1,000.

The state moved into the first phase of reopening on May 16.

For all articles, information and updates on the coronavirus from KTAR News, visit ktar.com/coronavirus.

[specialsauce]

https://ktar.com/story/3244685/maricopa ... increased/

Maricopa County health official says spread of coronavirus has increased
By Danny Shapiro | June 5, 2020 at 5:00 pm
UPDATED: June 5, 2020 at 5:01 pm

(AP Photo/Aaron Favila)
PHOENIX — Maricopa County’s top public health official said Friday that coronavirus cases in metro Phoenix have increased and that it’s not necessarily due to a testing jump.

Marcy Flanagan, the county’s public health executive director, said there are signs that community spread of COVID-19 is growing beyond what was expected because of the state’s reopening.

“We are starting to see some indicators that the number of COVID-19 cases is increasing in Maricopa County and we have enough information to know these increases are not due to just an increase in testing that is occurring,” Flanagan said during a press conference.

Maricopa County has averaged about 500 new cases over the past four days, including 503 cases on Thursday.

Flanagan said those daily case numbers are higher than normal, even on days when Arizona Testing Blitz numbers have been taken into account.

Hospitalizations in the county due to COVID-19 have also increased, while ICU bed availability has decreased.

Positive test percentage numbers are also increasing and is worrisome, according to Flanagan.

“All of these indicators together tell us there is an increased spread in the community,” Flanagan said.

Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey on Thursday doubled down on his approach to handling the pandemic, saying he believes his office and public health officials have chosen the best course of action in handling the virus outbreak.

Arizona reported 1,579 new coronavirus cases Friday morning, the most ever in a daily update, and the state’s death toll for the pandemic eclipsed 1,000.

The state moved into the first phase of reopening on May 16.

For all articles, information and updates on the coronavirus from KTAR News, visit ktar.com/coronavirus.

Yep.

[ShelC]

And Vegas is back!

[Nodack]

Not seeing any masks.

[Nodack]

Type ‘arizona covid cases’ into google. 1500 new cases yesterday. Setting a record that broke the record two days earlier that broke a record two days earlier than that.

[ShelC]

Get ready for the "it's the protests" spin.

[Superbone]

And Vegas is back!

Wow. It's like the pandemic never happened! I guess the whole thing was a hoax after all.

[specialsauce]

Get ready for the "it's the protests" spin.

That’s not spin. That’s going to happen and it’s absolutely true. But these cases are from reopening, way too soon to see the spike from the protests. That’ll come next two weeks

[Superbone]

Type ‘arizona covid cases’ into google. 1500 new cases yesterday. Setting a record that broke the record two days earlier that broke a record two days earlier than that.

Can you say "second wave"?

[specialsauce]

It’s really disappointing that two hydroxychloroquine studies were retracted from NEJM and Lancet. This has gotten out of control. The drive to get new cutting edge data, testing, treatment out is leading to some terrible decisions (antibody tests, rapid tests, treatments etc)

[specialsauce]

Type ‘arizona covid cases’ into google. 1500 new cases yesterday. Setting a record that broke the record two days earlier that broke a record two days earlier than that.

Can you say "second wave"?

First wave never really ended. We just decided we wanted to party again.

[ShelC]

They're already throwing the "it's the protests" stuff out there tho with new cases, which to your point won't happen for at least another 2 weeks. But they don't want to admit these new spikes are due to reopening and not taking preventive guidelines/measures seriously enough to begin with.

FWIW, at least where I am, I see a lot more people wearing masks at protests than I saw in other areas of the country during Memorial Day weekend or in that casino in Vegas. I know masks aren't the end all/be all and social distancing in important but at least they're making the effort.

[specialsauce]

They're already throwing the "it's the protests" stuff out there tho with new cases, which to your point won't happen for at least another 2 weeks. But they don't want to admit these new spikes are due to reopening and not taking preventive guidelines/measures seriously enough to begin with.

FWIW, at least where I am, I see a lot more people wearing masks at protests than I saw in other areas of the country during Memorial Day weekend or in that casino in Vegas. I know masks aren't the end all/be all and social distancing in important but at least they're making the effort.

Yeah that’s a load of BS for sure

[Cap]

It’s really disappointing that two hydroxychloroquine studies were retracted from NEJM and Lancet.

Why were they retracted?