2024 Presidential race

[specialsauce]

It's not that interesting. It's pretty boring actually. Since NH allows Dems to vote in the Reps primary, Haley's numbers were greatly propped up with Dems voting for her. It's pretty elementary, imo.

Or, the coocoocachoos voted for Trump.

[In2ition]

Sure, most the general public that you deal with are coocoocachoos.

[Mori Chu]

I don't think Haley has any chance to win the primary. I am curious, though, to see what kind of numbers she gets in the next 1-2 states, particularly her home state of South Carolina.

[In2ition]

I don't think Haley has any chance to win the primary. I am curious, though, to see what kind of numbers she gets in the next 1-2 states, particularly her home state of South Carolina.

I don't think there is a chance either. Her best hope is that the Supreme Court tells the states that they have the right to keep Trump off the ballot or that he gets found guilty of a felony and is sent to prison. In that sense, she is staying alive to be the last person standing.

I think she gets trounced in her home state of South Carolina. It's possible that Trump gets 2x the amount of votes in her own state. She's not even going to Nevada, which is the next state. It's sad that the GOP is pushing so hard for her, and throwing away 10s of millions of dollars at her dead in the water campaign. Biden supporters aren't sad though, as every dollar that gets thrown away in these primaries isn't going to used in the general election.

[Superbone]

Just shows how cult like those Trumpians are to believe the voting is rigged just because the fat man says it over and over even though it's been disproven over and over.

[Mori Chu]

Haley could also have a chance if Trump falls to some kind of health problem, like a heart attack or stroke. Not saying that I think that is likely, but he is an old guy who frankly doesn't take the very best care of himself (poor diet, literally thinks exercise drains all the body's energy, etc.). So if he had some kind of health problem that would open an opportunity for her. Might be worth sticking around a bit just to see if anything bad happens to him: health, trial conviction, scandal, etc.

[In2ition]

Yes, that's a good point and one I should have added. Totally agree.

[JeremyG]

It's not that interesting. It's pretty boring actually. Since NH allows Dems to vote in the Reps primary, Haley's numbers were greatly propped up with Dems voting for her. It's pretty elementary, imo.

Except Dems aren’t allowed to vote, only “undeclared” voters.

[In2ition]

It's not that interesting. It's pretty boring actually. Since NH allows Dems to vote in the Reps primary, Haley's numbers were greatly propped up with Dems voting for her. It's pretty elementary, imo.

Except Dems aren’t allowed to vote, only “undeclared” voters.

Au contraire my good fellow. They did it sneaky like, through a group called Primary Pivot, who urged Dems to change to Independent so they could stop Trump by voting for Nikki Haley.

[JeremyG]

It's not that interesting. It's pretty boring actually. Since NH allows Dems to vote in the Reps primary, Haley's numbers were greatly propped up with Dems voting for her. It's pretty elementary, imo.

Except Dems aren’t allowed to vote, only “undeclared” voters.

Au contraire my good fellow. They did it sneaky like, through a group called Primary Pivot, who urged Dems to change to Independent so they could stop Trump by voting for Nikki Haley.

Sounds like Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” where he told Republicans to vote in the Democratic primaries in 2008.

[specialsauce]

Sure, most the general public that you deal with are coocoocachoos.

Thank you for repeating the term coocoocachoo

[Mori Chu]

By my understanding, there is nothing illegal about people jumping across party to vote in some of these states' open primaries. You make it sound like some nefarious plot, but it is allowed by the state. I don't think there's much point to doing that, but so be it.

[In2ition]

By my understanding, there is nothing illegal about people jumping across party to vote in some of these states' open primaries. You make it sound like some nefarious plot, but it is allowed by the state. I don't think there's much point to doing that, but so be it.

It was a little shady when Rush tried to do it, and it's a bit shady now. I remember it happening similiarly during the primaries in AZ during the 2022 election.

[In2ition]

Sure, most the general public that you deal with are coocoocachoos.

Thank you for repeating the term coocoocachoo

I always loved that word, haha.

[Mori Chu]

By my understanding, there is nothing illegal about people jumping across party to vote in some of these states' open primaries. You make it sound like some nefarious plot, but it is allowed by the state. I don't think there's much point to doing that, but so be it.

It was a little shady when Rush tried to do it, and it's a bit shady now. I remember it happening similiarly during the primaries in AZ during the 2022 election.

I personally would not vote in the opposite party's primary. But I don't think it is "shady." The state has explicitly set up their primary that way on purpose. They are not completely naive; they know that some voters would do this. They weighed the pros and cons and decided to do their primary this way. They felt that it was better to let everyone who wanted to weigh in on the primary race have the ability to do so.

The argument is, maybe you're an Ind or Dem voter, but you would much rather vote for Haley than Trump if that's who it's going to come down to. So you want to register that by voting for her in the primary. Or maybe let's say the Dem primary was Biden vs RFK Jr, and you're a Republican or Independent and you really like RFK. So you vote in the Dem primary because you'd really like to see RFK go up as the candidate. That is totally fine for you to do that; you're expressing your preference for a candidate you like better.

You can say they should not run their primary that way, but that's what they have chosen. They do have the provision that if you vote in one party's primary, you cannot vote in the other; so all these independent / Dem voters who voted in the Republican primary in NH could not also vote in the Dem one.

Again, this is a known phenomenon and NH chose this system conscious that people would do this. You may personally disagree with this, but I do not think there is anything "shady" about it.

[In2ition]

By my understanding, there is nothing illegal about people jumping across party to vote in some of these states' open primaries. You make it sound like some nefarious plot, but it is allowed by the state. I don't think there's much point to doing that, but so be it.

It was a little shady when Rush tried to do it, and it's a bit shady now. I remember it happening similiarly during the primaries in AZ during the 2022 election.

I personally would not vote in the opposite party's primary. But I don't think it is "shady." The state has explicitly set up their primary that way on purpose. They are not completely naive; they know that some voters would do this. They weighed the pros and cons and decided to do their primary this way. They felt that it was better to let everyone who wanted to weigh in on the primary race have the ability to do so.

The argument is, maybe you're an Ind or Dem voter, but you would much rather vote for Haley than Trump if that's who it's going to come down to. So you want to register that by voting for her in the primary. Or maybe let's say the Dem primary was Biden vs RFK Jr, and you're a Republican or Independent and you really like RFK. So you vote in the Dem primary because you'd really like to see RFK go up as the candidate. That is totally fine for you to do that; you're expressing your preference for a candidate you like better.

You can say they should not run their primary that way, but that's what they have chosen. They do have the provision that if you vote in one party's primary, you cannot vote in the other; so all these independent / Dem voters who voted in the Republican primary in NH could not also vote in the Dem one.

Again, this is a known phenomenon and NH chose this system conscious that people would do this. You may personally disagree with this, but I do not think there is anything "shady" about it.

It's a bit shady because they have zero desire or intent to vote for Haley in the general election. They don't even necessarily like Haley more or anything like that. So what you are doing is artificially inflating or effecting the voting of the opposing party. In this day and age, if it was flipped around, some enterprising young attorney like Marc Elias could try to argue that it's actually election interference. Put it in front of the right grand jury, judge and jury later and you could put someone away for a long time doing it. That's the kind of bs we are seeing in this country right now. Everything is weaponized. Nothing is civil.

[Mori Chu]

I just strongly disagree with you on this. Imagine you're a Dem voter. You want Biden to win. But if it isn't going to be Biden, you much prefer Haley. Maybe you even kind of like Haley, just not quite as much as you like Biden. And voting in the Dem primary for Biden probably won't matter, since he's going to win handily anyway. So you switch to Ind / Rep and vote for Haley in the R primary.

I actually think that's a totally rational thing that some people might choose to do. I don't think it is shady at all. It is completely allowed within the rules of the primary; it is not even remotely equal to "election interference." Marc Elias would never pursue anything about this since he is pursuing literal violations of the law, not people exercising their completely legal rights. There is nothing weaponized or illegal or shady about this.

[Nodack]

I heard Dems want Trump instead of Haley. The Dem party would rather help Trump win the primary, so they can run against a twice impeached, sexual assaulting, tax evading, 90 something indictments against serial liar who might go to jail. I can see the logic in that. I can see the logic of Haley going the distance and being the strong #2 candidate because #1 might go to jail and that would probably make her the last rat standing.

[Kryptonic]

Gotta love the options we are given!

[In2ition]

I heard Dems want Trump instead of Haley. The Dem party would rather help Trump win the primary, so they can run against a twice impeached, sexual assaulting, tax evading, 90 something indictments against serial liar who might go to jail. I can see the logic in that. I can see the logic of Haley going the distance and being the strong #2 candidate because #1 might go to jail and that would probably make her the last rat standing.

I've heard that theory too, but dismissed it pretty quickly. The polls, although could fluctuate pretty wildly right now, show Biden beating Haley fairly easily and Trump beating Biden in a closer race.