NBA FA 2020 & Suns FA targets

[3rdside]

----------Rubio ------FVV
WS--------4.9---------5.8 (4.9 of 34 wins and 39 losses is better than 5.8 of 53 and 19)

Having greater share in less success isn't an advantage.

It's an indicator of who's contributing more to team success, which on a proportionate basis is Rubio.

Eh, that is fuzzy logic.

I think you'll find it's quantifiable, the literal opposite of fuzzy logic.

[INFORMER]

I think you've missed the point here - chemistry is an intangible that is hard to find and easily lost. McD ruined it because he didn't know what he was doing and by ditching Frye (primarily) and bringing in Thomas (secondly) it changed everything.

That argument is still all over the map. I don't think there is anything to suggest Channing Frye was the key to the Suns chemistry. There were specific things that you could point to that Thomas was detrimental to the team chemistry, but I don't think Frye and Thomas can be linked; Frye wasn't deemed worth the contract, and to be fair, he wasn't too effective from the point forward, much like Tim Thomas after the 05-06 incredible run.

McD ignored a lot of things; none of your explanation accounts for the toxicity of the Morris Twins, nor does it account for Dragic's desire to be the lead guard. So it is a bit more nuanced than, McD got rid of Frye and that ruined everything. The premise that chemistry shouldn't tampered with may have ruled out letting Frye go (because he was part of that precious chemistry) but it doesn't preclude adding players to the team (Thomas). And if the answer to that is "you have add the right players," I think that is a given; you take into account the player's skillset, personality, and fit with the rest of the team. But again, I would say that is a given, regardless of where you are in the team-building process.

Rubio is a great lockerroom guy and gave the Suns very solid play; but I don't think the Suns success rests on his shoulders. Cameron Payne is solid but he isn't that good, and somehow (miraculously) we saw a Suns team that could actually function without Rubio.

[3rdside]

I think you've missed the point here - chemistry is an intangible that is hard to find and easily lost. McD ruined it because he didn't know what he was doing and by ditching Frye (primarily) and bringing in Thomas (secondly) it changed everything.

That argument is still all over the map.

My argument is precise even though the nature of 'team chemistry' is hard to define .. so again, the literal opposite of what you're suggesting.

Nothing happens in a vacuum and ditching Frye and bringing in Thomas created a whole raft of second order and third order effects that trashed the good will generated from the year before.

[INFORMER]

----------Rubio ------FVV
WS--------4.9---------5.8 (4.9 of 34 wins and 39 losses is better than 5.8 of 53 and 19)

Having greater share in less success isn't an advantage.

It's an indicator of who's contributing more to team success, which on a proportionate basis is Rubio.

Eh, that is fuzzy logic.

I think you'll find it's quantifiable, the literal opposite of fuzzy logic.

I don't think it is more impressive to say "I had more to do with my team's 34 wins than you did with your team's 53 wins."

And I think the situations matter: Rubio being the lone NBA point guard on a team versus FVV starting off the ball next to Kyle Lowry. The proportionality doesn't transfer regardless of the situation.

[3rdside]

Having greater share in less success isn't an advantage.

It's an indicator of who's contributing more to team success, which on a proportionate basis is Rubio.

Eh, that is fuzzy logic.

I think you'll find it's quantifiable, the literal opposite of fuzzy logic.

I don't think it is more impressive to say "I had more to do with my team's 34 wins than you did with your team's 53 wins."

And I think the situations matter: Rubio being the lone NBA point guard on a team versus FVV starting off the ball next to Kyle Lowry. The proportionality doesn't transfer regardless of the situation.

You weren't supposed to look at one statistic by itself, the idea was to look at all of them collectively and make an assessment - the assessment being that there is nothing to suggest FVV is an upgrade. And if it isn't an upgrade, and if what you've got in Rubio appears to be working, then for godsake don't risk it.

[INFORMER]

I think you've missed the point here - chemistry is an intangible that is hard to find and easily lost. McD ruined it because he didn't know what he was doing and by ditching Frye (primarily) and bringing in Thomas (secondly) it changed everything.

That argument is still all over the map.

My argument is precise even though the nature of 'team chemistry' is hard to define .. so again, the literal opposite of what you're suggesting.

Nothing happens in a vacuum and ditching Frye and bringing in Thomas created a whole raft of second order and third order effects that trashed the good will generated from the year before.

But those are two separate occurrences. McD didn't trade Frye for Thomas. So unless your argument is, don't get rid of any of the current players AND don't add to the team, the comparison doesn't fit. In general, I think at best you can say, "be careful what changes you make to something that works (and we're using the "works" somewhat liberally here." And I agree, you should always be careful when trying to improve on something that already has value. But that caution is relative, with varying degrees.

At the end of the day, I think what makes this team "work" is bigger than Rubio, so I am comfortable with moving him. You are not, at least not for same options I am. And that's fine. Agree to disagree.

[INFORMER]

You weren't supposed to look at one statistic by itself, the idea was to look at all of them collectively and make an assessment - the assessment being that there is nothing to suggest FVV is an upgrade. And if it isn't an upgrade, and if what you've got in Rubio appears to be working, then for godsake don't risk it.

For me, FVV's a better defender and a better/more productive shooter. Those strengths couple with his playmaking skills and ability to take care of the ball are better fits to the Suns being a better team. And let's not forget FVV has more playoff experience. That matters too.

I am not trying to change your opinion; I am just explaining why FVV is an upgrade in my eyes.

[3rdside]

We're on the same page that Rubio isn't the be all and end all, I'm just saying he's more than good enough for now while we grow as a team.

And final comment - I'm not opposed to trading him as I've said, just preferably not now unless it's a no brainer upgrade .. which FVV isn't. Agree to disagree and I will be watching him with interest to see how he progresses.

[3rdside]

Moving on ... From Evan Sidery on Twitter:

Suns are projected to have $10.7 million in cap space if they do all of the following:

- Keep cap holds on Saric, Carter
- Renounce Baynes
- Decline options on Kaminsky, Diallo
- Waive Okobo

Phoenix will not be in a position to pursue bigger names unless Saric is not re-signed.

I'm not a cap expert so read this with caution, but from what I can tell Baynes has a $10.4m hold, so if we keep him by signing him for that, or less, and sign our rookie then we'll be over the cap by more or less whatever the rookie contract is?

If so, I say we're set at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 with the emergence of Johnson at 4 but could do with a talent upgrade at 1 and 4, with the 4 the more pressing issue however a back up 2 may be the most pressing issue of all.

So on the basis of the Ayton's suspension, Baynes's moments and bubble performance I could be convinced to stick with what we've got + a rookie 2 rather than make any marginal or expensive moves.

[3rdside]

PG Rubio / Payne / Booker
SG Booker/ Rookie / Carter
SF Bridges / Oubre / Johnson
PF Johnson / Saric / Oubre
C Ayton / Baynes / Saric

Obviously it requires Oubre's buy in as 6th man but as long as he gets his minutes ..

[Cap]

And it's not even two days old but I'll rehash it anyway:

Again, if you don't have an NBA player backing up Rubio, then that is going to make a huge difference when he isn't on the court.

I'm not sure this is a legitimate take - every team will have a weak spot somewhere so to pin all of the team's performance when Rubio is not the court on the lack of a backup point guard seems a bit of a reach. I might be wrong but i'm inclined to think otherwise.

It’s basically a measure of how effective you are compared to the guys backing you up. How effective you are is half the story; how ineffective your backups are is the other half.

[3rdside]

I agree but the way I read it is it's not just the back up PG you're measuring when Rubio's not on the court, it's all the players combined you're measuring when Rubio's not on the court, so to pin the difference on just one back up PG doesn't seem fair?

[specialsauce]

FVV has 30 & 11 on 8-10 3s tonight.

My personal assessment is that y’all fools trippin on some good acid if you think Rubio is better now or for the future next to Booker.

[Mori Chu]

FVV has 30 & 11 on 8-10 3s tonight.

My personal assessment is that y’all fools trippin on some good acid if you think Rubio is better now or for the future next to Booker.

Don't be silly. I think most of us would be happy to agree to a Rubio/FVV swap. The point is that we don't want to just dump Rubio for nothing in the hopes of landing FVV and then end up empty-handed. There's no reason to believe he would want to come here just because we have some cap space.

[Indy]

FVV has 30 & 11 on 8-10 3s tonight.

My personal assessment is that y’all fools trippin on some good acid if you think Rubio is better now or for the future next to Booker.

yep

[Indy]

FVV has 30 & 11 on 8-10 3s tonight.

My personal assessment is that y’all fools trippin on some good acid if you think Rubio is better now or for the future next to Booker.

Don't be silly. I think most of us would be happy to agree to a Rubio/FVV swap. The point is that we don't want to just dump Rubio for nothing in the hopes of landing FVV and then end up empty-handed. There's no reason to believe he would want to come here just because we have some cap space.

not all of us. some are specifically saying that FVV is not an upgrade over Rubio.

[Indy]

Moving on ... From Evan Sidery on Twitter:

Suns are projected to have $10.7 million in cap space if they do all of the following:

- Keep cap holds on Saric, Carter
- Renounce Baynes
- Decline options on Kaminsky, Diallo
- Waive Okobo

Phoenix will not be in a position to pursue bigger names unless Saric is not re-signed.

I'm not a cap expert so read this with caution, but from what I can tell Baynes has a $10.4m hold, so if we keep him by signing him for that, or less, and sign our rookie then we'll be over the cap by more or less whatever the rookie contract is?

If so, I say we're set at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 with the emergence of Johnson at 4 but could do with a talent upgrade at 1 and 4, with the 4 the more pressing issue however a back up 2 may be the most pressing issue of all.

So on the basis of the Ayton's suspension, Baynes's moments and bubble performance I could be convinced to stick with what we've got + a rookie 2 rather than make any marginal or expensive moves.

How many of our starting 5 are above average NBA starters? I count 2.

[Cap]

Moving on ... From Evan Sidery on Twitter:

Suns are projected to have $10.7 million in cap space if they do all of the following:

- Keep cap holds on Saric, Carter
- Renounce Baynes
- Decline options on Kaminsky, Diallo
- Waive Okobo

Phoenix will not be in a position to pursue bigger names unless Saric is not re-signed.

I'm not a cap expert so read this with caution, but from what I can tell Baynes has a $10.4m hold, so if we keep him by signing him for that, or less, and sign our rookie then we'll be over the cap by more or less whatever the rookie contract is?

If so, I say we're set at 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 with the emergence of Johnson at 4 but could do with a talent upgrade at 1 and 4, with the 4 the more pressing issue however a back up 2 may be the most pressing issue of all.

So on the basis of the Ayton's suspension, Baynes's moments and bubble performance I could be convinced to stick with what we've got + a rookie 2 rather than make any marginal or expensive moves.

How many of our starting 5 are above average NBA starters? I count 2.

Long run, or now?

[3rdside]

FVV has 30 & 11 on 8-10 3s tonight.

My personal assessment is that y’all fools trippin on some good acid if you think Rubio is better now or for the future next to Booker.

I noticed .. and it's making very short work of my argument

[3rdside]

FVV has 30 & 11 on 8-10 3s tonight.

My personal assessment is that y’all fools trippin on some good acid if you think Rubio is better now or for the future next to Booker.

Don't be silly. I think most of us would be happy to agree to a Rubio/FVV swap. The point is that we don't want to just dump Rubio for nothing in the hopes of landing FVV and then end up empty-handed. There's no reason to believe he would want to come here just because we have some cap space.

not all of us. some are specifically saying that FVV is not an upgrade over Rubio.

Statistically he's not, I don't know how you can argue that, but it was an impressive playoff opener even though it's just one game.

Let's wait and see how the playoffs unfold (and then decide if you want to pay him $25m a year .. )