Russia/Ukraine

[Nodack]

I don't think the strife between Putin and Prigozhin is as strong as the West wants to believe. They need each other too much.

Wagner is much more of a threat to Kiev from Belarusian territory. This can present a problem for the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the South as they may need to reinforce their northern border.

Lukashenko is a Putin puppet seemingly despised by a large segment of the Belarusian people. If he were to be killed, the country would become very unstable and Putin would lose the advantage of their position along the border with Ukraine. By exiling Prigozhin to Belarus, Putin increases his own authority in the region and Prigozhin as the opportunity to secure more power and wealth by eventually taking over Belarus.

Prigozhin declaring war on Russian military leadership, telling anyone who would listen that the reasons for the war were fabricated, marching to Moscow he says to change leadership and along the way taking over a couple of cities and shooting down several Russian aircraft seems like a very unfriendly thing to do. I don’t see them ever reconciling their differences. I see Putin as being totally humiliated by this guy who seems to be getting more popular with the Russian people than Vlad. I don’t see Putin just letting that slide. I can’t believe Prigozhin would believe he is safe in Belarus and that Putin wouldn’t want him killed. Prigozhin has been around the block and knows exactly who Putin is and how many of Putins critics have died suddenly from accidentally falling out windows or being poisoned. He seems to savvy to just wait to be killed. Maybe you are right and this is just a clever ruse by the two men to take over Belarus and start an attack from the North.

The leader of Belarus has been a total Russian puppet. Putin has already staged troops there and attacked Ukraine from Belarus. Putin has already staged nukes in Belarus. This coup attempt failed but it was totally humiliating and dangerous for Putin. I just can’t see that as a premeditated Putin plan just to get Prigozhin in Belarus so he could take over Belarus. It doesn’t make sense to me.

[Nodack]

Yep


Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... er-family/

Russian security services threatened the families of Wagner forces to get them to back down, report says
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-security ... 10348.html

[Kryptonic]

Yep


Russian agents’ threat to family made Prigozhin call off Moscow advance
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... er-family/

Russian security services threatened the families of Wagner forces to get them to back down, report says
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-security ... 10348.html

Feels like a sub plot to a mission impossible movie…. Crazy.

[Nodack]

How many shows have you seen where the bad guys kidnap the family as leverage against the good guys?

[Kryptonic]

How many shows have you seen where the bad guys kidnap the family as leverage against the good guys?

I think you just described Seasons 1-6 of "24"

[Flagrant Fowl]

I don't think the strife between Putin and Prigozhin is as strong as the West wants to believe. They need each other too much.

Wagner is much more of a threat to Kiev from Belarusian territory. This can present a problem for the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the South as they may need to reinforce their northern border.

Lukashenko is a Putin puppet seemingly despised by a large segment of the Belarusian people. If he were to be killed, the country would become very unstable and Putin would lose the advantage of their position along the border with Ukraine. By exiling Prigozhin to Belarus, Putin increases his own authority in the region and Prigozhin as the opportunity to secure more power and wealth by eventually taking over Belarus.

Prigozhin declaring war on Russian military leadership, telling anyone who would listen that the reasons for the war were fabricated, marching to Moscow he says to change leadership and along the way taking over a couple of cities and shooting down several Russian aircraft seems like a very unfriendly thing to do. I don’t see them ever reconciling their differences. I see Putin as being totally humiliated by this guy who seems to be getting more popular with the Russian people than Vlad. I don’t see Putin just letting that slide. I can’t believe Prigozhin would believe he is safe in Belarus and that Putin wouldn’t want him killed. Prigozhin has been around the block and knows exactly who Putin is and how many of Putins critics have died suddenly from accidentally falling out windows or being poisoned. He seems to savvy to just wait to be killed. Maybe you are right and this is just a clever ruse by the two men to take over Belarus and start an attack from the North.

The leader of Belarus has been a total Russian puppet. Putin has already staged troops there and attacked Ukraine from Belarus. Putin has already staged nukes in Belarus. This coup attempt failed but it was totally humiliating and dangerous for Putin. I just can’t see that as a premeditated Putin plan just to get Prigozhin in Belarus so he could take over Belarus. It doesn’t make sense to me.

Most of the information I've read and watched has claimed that Prigozhin's beef is with the Defense Minister and other high ranking generals, not really Putin. I'm also not necessarily saying the plan is for Prigozhin to take over Belarus, but rather Putin is placating to his anger by putting him in a stronger position.

[Nodack]

I agree that Prigozhin verbally attacked Russian military leadership on a regular basis for not supplying enough ammunition and blamed them for allegedly bombing and killing a bunch of Wagner troops. That directly led to the mutiny. Attacking them is sort of attacking Putin. Putin is the leader of the military. Declaring war on them, taking out several aircraft, grabbing a couple of cities and vowing to go to Moscow to change leadership making Putin and several others flee the capital is serious mutiny. Putin kills people who just say things he doesn’t like. Prigozhin Is seriously dangerous to Putin now. The Russian people love the guy. He just blabbed that the war is a bunch of BS and a land grab. Prigozhin being promoted in Belarus. I don’t believe that for a second.

A message posted on the Wagner Telegram channel on Saturday said: 'Putin made the wrong choice. All the worse for him. Soon we will have a new president.'

It’s amazing in politics how fast stances can change. I firmly believe Prigozhin feared for his family’s lives and caved to save them. Whether he did or not remains to be seen. All those Wagner forces that were under Prigozhin are supposedly safe and won’t be punished. Other reports say they must join the Russian army. Other reports say the Wagner forces are going to stay a force in Belarus.

IMO Putin is very vindictive and there is no way he lets Prigozhin off the hook with a slap on the wrist. One day in the not so distant future we will hear of Prigozhin dying suddenly.

The Ukrainian army you would think would be able to capitalize off all this Russian turmoil.

[Mori Chu]

Lol, omg. This guy just calls up the Wagner mercenary group and tries to apply.

[Mori Chu]

Remember that mutinous General Prigozhin? Yeah, um, he's apparently dead now.

[Kryptonic]

Remember that mutinous General Prigozhin? Yeah, um, he's apparently dead now.

I can honestly and sadly say I wasn’t surprised when reading that headline today…

[Flagrant Fowl]

Welp, I guess that means he's not going to shadow run Belarus.

[Nodack]

Putin doesn’t like to be challenged.

[Flagrant Fowl]

Seems to be at least a minor indication that Shoigu was behind it since the plane was shot down with an anti-air system.

Keep in mind that Russia is held together by various individuals with their own claims to power. They're all part of the same ex-KGB group as Putin, so they generally have the same goal for Russia, but they're not at all above infighting with (killing) each other.

[Nodack]

What are the odds?

Russian general purged by Putin found dead after mystery ‘illness’
Thursday 17 Aug 2023 8:57 am
https://metro.co.uk/2023/08/17/top-russ ... tbrain_mid

[Nodack]

Elon Musk is an enigma. Musk as we all know owns a bunch of companies. One of those companies is Space X. Russia invaded Ukraine and knocked out all their communications. Musk decided he would help Ukraine and launched a bunch of satellites over Ukraine and gave them back communications. Apparently Musk thought they would only use communications for civilian use so they could post on Twitter all day. Ukraine said thank you and started using the satellites to help the military communicate with itself.

Early on Ukraine planned a sneak submarine drone attack on Russia’s fleet. Apparently Musk was appalled that Ukraine would use his satellites for military use and was afraid that attack would lead Russia to use nuclear weapons. So, right as the attack was about to happen Musk turned off his satellites near Crimea and all of Ukraine’s submarine drones in the attack lost communications and washed ashore harmlessly.

That brings up a question doesn’t it? A US citizen/business owner right in the middle of a global conflict. The US has taken a side. Musk wants to remain neutral. China and Russia are pretty close and Tesla in China is a huge thing for Musk. It is a conundrum.

CNN Exclusive: ‘How am I in this war?’: New Musk biography offers fresh details about the billionaire’s Ukraine dilemma
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/07/poli ... index.html

[Nodack]

Another America company hit with world politics.


Apple shares fall after reports that China banned iPhone use by government employees
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/07/apple-s ... oyees.html

Apple Risks Chinese Users Souring on iPhones Ahead of Launch
Growing government ban sparks fears of consumer backlash
Company previously faced slump fueled by Chinese nationalism
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... out-banner

Apple lost $200 billion in two days after reports of iPhone ban in China
https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/07/investin ... index.html


It sure does feel like battle lines are being drawn. China has been working feverishly hard building up its military and ties between the US and China have deteriorated considerably. China, Russia, NK and Iran are working together in apposing the West. The US has been working to untether itself from China business wise as well. A giant Taiwan company factory to build chips is nearing completion in Phoenix. I see trouble on the horizon.

[Nodack]

Musk acknowledges he turned off Starlink internet access last year during Ukraine attack on Russia military
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4193 ... military/R
“There was an emergency request from government authorities to activate Starlink all the way to Sevastopol,” Musk wrote on X, the platform previously known as Twitter.
“The obvious intent being to sink most of the Russian fleet at anchor. If I had agreed to their request, then SpaceX would be explicitly complicit in a major act of war and conflict escalation,” Musk wrote.

“How am I in this war?” Musk asked Isaacson, per CNN. “Starlink was not meant to be involved in wars. It was so people can watch Netflix and chill and get online for school and do good peaceful things, not drone strikes.”
Earlier this year, Musk also stressed on X that he reserved the right to turn off the service if needed but claimed he had never done so.

[Mori Chu]

Interesting story about Musk/Starlink shutting off Ukraine's internet just in time to stop them from a counteroffensive against Russia.

Raytheon isn’t at liberty to sell its high tech weaponry to Russia or China if the price is right. These contractors are legally and financially bound into the U.S. national security apparatus. So is Musk and SpaceX. Or at least they’re supposed to be. A critical part of this story is that Musk took this action after conversations with an unnamed Russian government official which, Musk claimed, led him to worry the attack could escalate into a nuclear conflict.

...

We need to learn more details about just what happened here. A congressional investigation wouldn’t be a bad idea. But we know enough to know that a guy in charge of a lot of critical technology the U.S. relies on is happy to cut deals with the other team.

[Nodack]

Elon Musk ‘committed evil’ with Starlink order, says Ukrainian official
Ukrainian presidential adviser says deaths of civilians ‘the price of a cocktail of ignorance and big ego’
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... er-ukraine
In a statement on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, which Musk owns, the Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak wrote that Musk’s interference led to the deaths of civilians, calling them “the price of a cocktail of ignorance and big ego”.

“By not allowing Ukrainian drones to destroy part of the Russian fleet via Starlink interference, @elonmusk allowed this fleet to fire Kalibr missiles at Ukrainian cities. As a result, civilians, and children are being killed,” Podolyak wrote.

“Why do some people so desperately want to defend war criminals and their desire to commit murder? And do they now realise that they are committing evil and encouraging evil?”

[Nodack]

Interesting story about Musk/Starlink shutting off Ukraine's internet just in time to stop them from a counteroffensive against Russia.

Raytheon isn’t at liberty to sell its high tech weaponry to Russia or China if the price is right. These contractors are legally and financially bound into the U.S. national security apparatus. So is Musk and SpaceX. Or at least they’re supposed to be. A critical part of this story is that Musk took this action after conversations with an unnamed Russian government official which, Musk claimed, led him to worry the attack could escalate into a nuclear conflict.

...

We need to learn more details about just what happened here. A congressional investigation wouldn’t be a bad idea. But we know enough to know that a guy in charge of a lot of critical technology the U.S. relies on is happy to cut deals with the other team.

Definitely a tangled web. We don’t know if he cut a deal or not. He was talked out of letting the Ukrainians attack the Russian fleet by a Russian? I guess it would b nice to know how it went down. The Ukrainian military was going to launch a secret drone attack on the Russian fleet so the Russians talk Musk into thwarting the attack? Apparently it wasn’t so secret if the Russians are calling Musk before it happens. A business owner put into a position where his product becomes a top national security issue and he goes rogue. Uncharted territory it seems.