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If it's any consolation, no team is more likely to pick top 2 than not

Hermen wrote:If it's any consolation, no team is more likely to pick top 2 than not

It is not.

The odds are designed to discourage tanking, so ... yeah.

Yeah, The whole lottery system is designed to discourage the exact thing the Suns did this season.

We didn't tank to the point of shame, taking out of rotation productive youngs (we could have shut down Booker), neither sit for the second half a player with a good day (LA style). We even go for a win to avoid setting a negative franchise record. We lost that flip, and MAYBE that denied us that so wanted championship, but even then we managed to survive, and will do it again if miss out on the top talent.

Thinking on that recent interview from McD, tells me that they are as anxious as we are about may 16th. I think they are leaning to continue the slow development only if we land top 2 and get one of those franchise-alter-PG avaliable. If we don't, then we will "speed up" the rebuilding looking for mere return to the playoffs.

Just based on eye test, I say we pick at 3. Every year at least one team leapfrog from the middle lottery, some years even two teams do it. Probabilities are not a fix thing, a paper I read once, demonstrated that if you throw a coin 100 times, is little likely to obtain the 50/50 split that basic probabilities foretell (They do something like throw 100 series of 100 coinflips, and not once they got 50/50, not even in the aggregate, altough it did aproach it to 50%)

I'm not thinking in our odds for this particular event, but considering that this is our first time with such odds (one flip coin out of 100), so teams that regularly visit the lottery, are more likely to get his "average win" that we are.

Aztec Sunsfan wrote:We didn't tank to the point of shame, taking out of rotation productive youngs (we could have shut down Booker), neither sit for the second half a player with a good day (LA style). We even go for a win to avoid setting a negative franchise record. We lost that flip, and MAYBE that denied us that so wanted championship, but even then we managed to survive, and will do it again if miss out on the top talent.

Thinking on that recent interview from McD, tells me that they are as anxious as we are about may 26th. I think they are leaning to continue the slow development only if we land top 2 and get one of those franchise-alter-PG avaliable. If we don't, then we will "speed up" the rebuilding looking for mere return to the playoffs.

Just based on eye test, I say we pick at 3. Every year at least one team leapfrog from the middle lottery, some years even two teams do it. Probabilities are not a fix thing, a paper I read once, demonstrated that if you throw a coin 100 times, is little likely to obtain the 50/50 split that basic probabilities foretell (They do something like throw 100 series of 100 coinflips, and not once get 50/50, not even the aggregate, altough it did aproach it to 50%)

I'm not thinking in our odds for this event, but considering that this is our first time with such odds, so teams that regularly visit the lottery, are more likely to get his "average win" that we.

You just about gave me a heart attack. It's May 16th; I double checked.

Ups!

Inocent typo, I'll fix it to prevent further damage among the .NET

Indy wrote:

In2ition wrote:http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/ ... r-a-change
This article doesn't give good odds to the Suns for 1 or 2.

Well, the odds are locked in. And they aren't good. We have a better chance of landing 4 or 5 than 1 or 2.

On the other hand, don't we also have a better chance of getting 1, 2, or 3 than 4 or 5?

Ya, I think it's like 55/45

Superbone wrote:

Indy wrote:

In2ition wrote:http://www.brightsideofthesun.com/2017/ ... r-a-change
This article doesn't give good odds to the Suns for 1 or 2.

Well, the odds are locked in. And they aren't good. We have a better chance of landing 4 or 5 than 1 or 2.

On the other hand, don't we also have a better chance of getting 1, 2, or 3 than 4 or 5?

Slightly. We have a 44.2% chance of getting 4 or 5. 55.8% of 1, 2, or 3.

60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

In the last 20 years, for the #2 seed, 15% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Thanks Yogi.

In2ition wrote:

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

In the last 20 years, for the #2 seed, 15% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Wait, what? What's the history of the #2 position after the lottery? That would be a good thing to know. Or has that already been posted?

Superbone wrote:

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Thanks Yogi.

Not Yogi, but the great Brian Fantana. It's made with bits of real panther, so you know it's good.

Superbone wrote:

In2ition wrote:

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

In the last 20 years, for the #2 seed, 15% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Wait, what? What's the history of the #2 position after the lottery? That would be a good thing to know. Or has that already been posted?

From the BSOTS article posted by In2:

in the last 20 years no team that finished second in the reverse standings has moved up to get the first pick in the draft. And only three times did that team even keep their #2 spot. Five times the #2 team dropped to the 3rd spot, nine times they dropped to the #4 spot and three times they dropped all the way to 5th.

Superbone wrote:

In2ition wrote:

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

In the last 20 years, for the #2 seed, 15% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Wait, what? What's the history of the #2 position after the lottery? That would be a good thing to know. Or has that already been posted?

I looked it up once for the lotterys since the percentages changed to what they currently are. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the 2 spot has performed below it's expected percentages for the top couple spots. If I recall correctly, the 3 spot has actually fared a little better.

Split T wrote:

Superbone wrote:

In2ition wrote:

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:60% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

In the last 20 years, for the #2 seed, 15% of the time, the lottery works EVERY time.

Wait, what? What's the history of the #2 position after the lottery? That would be a good thing to know. Or has that already been posted?

I looked it up once for the lotterys since the percentages changed to what they currently are. I don't remember the exact numbers, but the 2 spot has performed below it's expected percentages for the top couple spots. If I recall correctly, the 3 spot has actually fared a little better.

No wonder the Lakers let us pass them by. Grrrr! I hate those guys.

Since 2005, the number 3 spot/2 spot has picked:

1st: 2 times/0 times
2nd: 0 times/2 times
3rd: 4 times/2 times
4th: 2 times/6 times
5th: 3 times/2 times
6th: 1 time/0 times

These are the numbers since the percentages changed to what they currently are.

Split T wrote:

Since 2005, the number 3 spot/2 spot has picked:

1st: 2 times/0 times
2nd: 0 times/2 times
3rd: 4 times/2 times
4th: 2 times/6 times
5th: 3 times/2 times
6th: 1 time/0 times

These are the numbers since the percentages changed to what they currently are.

Then we are due.

Anyone else know Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead? HEADS!