2018 NBA Draft Lottery

[JCSunsfan]

I just went 1 1 1 1 1 and then 4

STOP! You are using up all the #1's!!!!!

[carey]

I'm a fan of Trae Young, but I don't think he's worth a top-4 pick. That seems like an overrate of him to me. Maybe 7-8th pick at best. If you want Trae you Trade down for him.

He's not Steph Curry. I think those of you evaluating him like he is will be disappointed. I know some of you are saying, "No kidding, he's probably not a future MVP dipshit!" I get that point of view, but what I'm saying is that you shouldn't expect an immediate impact from him and probably not a Curry-like career.

[Split T]

I might not even take Trae if he fell to 16. There's other guys in that range I like better

[iLLmatic]

Trae Young will get dominated by bigger guards. I'm a hard pass for Trae Young.

[Gladiator]

I don't really want Trae young and certainly not at 4. However, as falling to pick 4 in the lottery and then picking Young there are the 2 things I'd essentially least like to see happen, that's what I'm bracing for.

[carey]

There's a poll over at RealGM. Young currently has 35% of the vote if we fall to 3. Followed by Bagley at 26% and JJJ at 24%.

[TOO]

I just went 1 1 1 1 1 and then 4

STOP! You are using up all the #1's!!!!!

[Flagrant Fowl]

There's a poll over at RealGM. Young currently has 35% of the vote if we fall to 3. Followed by Bagley at 26% and JJJ at 24%.

Drafting Trae Young in the top 4 is the darkest timeline, which makes it perfect that he's leading a poll at a place called RealGM.

[Split T]

The Trae Young train feels like a bunch of people that got a little too excited about his hot start to the season and are either unwilling to admit they were wrong or are in denial. Based off the 2nd half of the season he'd be going back to school or being drafted in round 2. He's got range on his shot and I'm sure he'll play better with better teammates, but college defenses figured him and his team out fairly easily and he was simply not a good basketball player the last half of the season.

[In2ition]

The Trae Young train feels like a bunch of people that got a little too excited about his hot start to the season and are either unwilling to admit they were wrong or are in denial. Based off the 2nd half of the season he'd be going back to school or being drafted in round 2. He's got range on his shot and I'm sure he'll play better with better teammates, but college defenses figured him and his team out fairly easily and he was simply not a good basketball player the last half of the season.

Please...it's pretty easy when you're the only option on your team. Do you remember when Michael Finley dropped and why? How about how hard it was for Booker when he was constantly double teamed? Once teams figured out the rest of the team couldn't score on their own it became entirely on making it hard for Young by throwing 2 or 3 guys at him.

[O_Gardino]

The Trae Young train feels like a bunch of people that got a little too excited about his hot start to the season and are either unwilling to admit they were wrong or are in denial. Based off the 2nd half of the season he'd be going back to school or being drafted in round 2. He's got range on his shot and I'm sure he'll play better with better teammates, but college defenses figured him and his team out fairly easily and he was simply not a good basketball player the last half of the season.

Young would still be a lottery pick with his second half play. 25.8 points on 40% shooting, 33% from deep, 7.4 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.4 assists. Still some of the best numbers ever put up by a freshman. Young isn't one of my top guys, but come on. 2nd round?

What you should see from the hot start is that he can perform very well when he has some space, that he loves to find his teammates, that he has the mindset to be great, and that he is growing his game. How much he can grow it is in question. But the back to school stuff is crazy.

[Split T]

The Trae Young train feels like a bunch of people that got a little too excited about his hot start to the season and are either unwilling to admit they were wrong or are in denial. Based off the 2nd half of the season he'd be going back to school or being drafted in round 2. He's got range on his shot and I'm sure he'll play better with better teammates, but college defenses figured him and his team out fairly easily and he was simply not a good basketball player the last half of the season.

Young would still be a lottery pick with his second half play. 25.8 points on 40% shooting, 33% from deep, 7.4 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.4 assists. Still some of the best numbers ever put up by a freshman. Young isn't one of my top guys, but come on. 2nd round?

What you should see from the hot start is that he can perform very well when he has some space, that he loves to find his teammates, that he has the mindset to be great, and that he is growing his game. How much he can grow it is in question. But the back to school stuff is crazy.

You missed the 6 turnovers a game. He shot 25% and 29% from 3 in February and March after shooting over 40% through January. His field goal percentage by month went like 48% - 46% - 42% - 36% - 36%.

I don't care how many points and assists you get if you're also shooting 36% from the field, 25% from 3, and turning the ball over 6 times a game.

You say those numbers would make him a lottery pick still, my question is why someone like shamorie ponds isn't a lottery pick then?

[O_Gardino]

The Trae Young train feels like a bunch of people that got a little too excited about his hot start to the season and are either unwilling to admit they were wrong or are in denial. Based off the 2nd half of the season he'd be going back to school or being drafted in round 2. He's got range on his shot and I'm sure he'll play better with better teammates, but college defenses figured him and his team out fairly easily and he was simply not a good basketball player the last half of the season.

Young would still be a lottery pick with his second half play. 25.8 points on 40% shooting, 33% from deep, 7.4 assists, 4 rebounds, 1.4 assists. Still some of the best numbers ever put up by a freshman. Young isn't one of my top guys, but come on. 2nd round?

What you should see from the hot start is that he can perform very well when he has some space, that he loves to find his teammates, that he has the mindset to be great, and that he is growing his game. How much he can grow it is in question. But the back to school stuff is crazy.

You missed the 6 turnovers a game. He shot 25% and 29% from 3 in February and March after shooting over 40% through January. His field goal percentage by month went like 48% - 46% - 42% - 36% - 36%.

I don't care how many points and assists you get if you're also shooting 36% from the field, 25% from 3, and turning the ball over 6 times a game.

You say those numbers would make him a lottery pick still, my question is why someone like shamorie ponds isn't a lottery pick then?

Aren't you the same guy who told us turnovers are a good sign in a young player?

And now your argument has changed from "the 2nd half of the season" to just his 3pt numbers in February and March.

Shamorie ponds, really? You're better than that.

My point is that just because Trae isn't the all-time great like his first 11 games looked, doesn't mean he's trash, or that no team is going to invest in him.

Whether he succeeds, IMO, is going to depend on landing in the right situation and continuing to grow. The key with his biggest comps (Curry and Nash) is that they both kept growing and improving year over year. 2018 Trae isn't going to be an allstar, but some team will take the bet that 2022 Trae could be.

[Split T]

Yes, I did say turnovers can be a good sign in young players. I read it somewhere in relation to Westbrook. But its not a situation where the more turnovers you get the better. 6 per game is too much. Not changing my argument, basketball-reference just makes it easy to see numbers split up by month. My point is he got significantly worse as the season went on. Did teams figure him out? Did he wear down? Was the first half of the season just a hot streak?

And your response to shamorie Ponds basically proves my point in my mind. Ponds is a dynamic shot creator who put up numbers on inefficient shooting. 20/5/5 and .42/.26 shooting. Not all that different from Trae in the 2nd half. Ponds is not a first round prospect but you think Trae is a lottery talent based on 27 points, 7 assists, 6 turnovers and shooting .39/.33
His great first half is still influencing your opinion. Which is fine, that first half happened, he showed he can put up numbers, but I’m very wary of him. I think there’s a pretty good chance he’s JJ Barea. I’d take SGA, Khyri, Shake, Holiday, and Sexton before Trae.

[Superbone]

Last time: 2-2-4-2-2-1

I would gladly take the 2nd pick.

[Superbone]

We are 5 hours away folks! (From 'Bazz's inappropriate office outburst.)

[O_Gardino]

Yes, I did say turnovers can be a good sign in young players. I read it somewhere in relation to Westbrook. But its not a situation where the more turnovers you get the better. 6 per game is too much. Not changing my argument, basketball-reference just makes it easy to see numbers split up by month. My point is he got significantly worse as the season went on. Did teams figure him out? Did he wear down? Was the first half of the season just a hot streak?

And your response to shamorie Ponds basically proves my point in my mind. Ponds is a dynamic shot creator who put up numbers on inefficient shooting. 20/5/5 and .42/.26 shooting. Not all that different from Trae in the 2nd half. Ponds is not a first round prospect but you think Trae is a lottery talent based on 27 points, 7 assists, 6 turnovers and shooting .39/.33
His great first half is still influencing your opinion. Which is fine, that first half happened, he showed he can put up numbers, but I’m very wary of him. I think there’s a pretty good chance he’s JJ Barea. I’d take SGA, Khyri, Shake, Holiday, and Sexton before Trae.

The difference between Young and Ponds is not just the numbers. But even if it was, the difference betweeen 27/7 and 20/5 is the difference between a 26yr old Westbrook and a 26 yr old Bledsoe.

[Split T]

Gonna go do 1 lottery sim at all the sites I know of.

http://www.tankathon.com

http://www.espn.com/nba/lottery2018/mockdraft

https://basketball.realgm.com/nba/draft ... _simulator

Will report back.

[Split T]

Tankathon -
1. Memphis
2. Cleveland via Brooklyn
3. Atlanta
4. Phoenix

ESPN -
1. Dallas
2. Sacramento
3. Chicago
4. Phoenix

RealGm -
1. Phoenix
2. Memphis
3. Sacramento

[Cap]

Yeah, today I’m not going to do my usual “play on Tankathon until we get #1.” Instead, I’m only going to play once, and instead of doing it on Tankathon, I’m going to do it by turning on my TV. I’ll let you all know how I do.

Given my track record, you shouldn’t expect much from me on the first play of the day, but hey, it’s all just random, right?