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In2ition wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:30 am

I realize that this is just your opinion, but I'm curious how you came to this conclusion through your calculations?

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:48 am

In2ition wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:30 am

I realize that this is just your opinion, but I'm curious how you came to this conclusion through your calculations?

Hi, In2, nice to see you posting here. You're right that it's just my opinion, not based on any poll or number or calculation. But the reason that I have this opinion is that I just think there would be moderate Rs and independent voters who would see the imagery of Trump being arrested, put into cuffs, put into a prison jumpsuit, locked up in the slammer, and would not be willing to vote for him afterward. That's such a powerful negative image. I realize some voters would be upset, would think Trump got screwed, would vote for him with even more passion because of the imprisonment, but IMO a lot of those folks were already going to vote for him anyway. I don't really buy the argument that Trump would somehow gain votes by getting convicted of felonies. It might help galvanize his base, but I don't think most random moderate folks would take kindly to it. What do you think?

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:45 am

Another brutal poll for Biden. Election is still a long ways away, but any Dem looking at these numbers would have to be concerned.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:46 pm

What I want to know is who is behind this reelection campaign? Is it Joe himself and his pride not wanting to step aside? Or is it people around him convincing him he can handle another 5 years? Is it the DNC that thinks he’s the best option to beat Trump?

What exactly is going on here?

Cap wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:57 pm

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:46 pm

What I want to know is who is behind this reelection campaign? Is it Joe himself and his pride not wanting to step aside? Or is it people around him convincing him he can handle another 5 years? Is it the DNC that thinks he’s the best option to beat Trump?

What exactly is going on here?

Nobody else has stepped up, and it’s way too late for anyone to do so.

In2ition wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:56 am

I don't know anything definitively, but every time he gets indicted his numbers go up. Even when Fulton County went so far as to give him a mugshot and then released it, his numbers went up again and he gained supporters all across the country in the black community. Even after Judge Engoron unilaterally ruled against him in the fraud case in NY where the Judge claimed that Mar-a-Lago was only worth $17 million, after Trump estimated it to be much larger, and that was part of the Judge's proof, Trump's numbers went up. It just doesn't seem to be convincing all that many people, except those that are Never Trumpers or Vote Blue No Matter Who Dems. I think a lot of independents and I've seen even Dems are looking at the facts involved in a lot of these cases and saying, "WTF are we doing here? We keep turning him into a martyr." Am I using faulty logic here?

Contrary to the fears of some Democrats, Biden maintained solid support among African Americans. Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. (His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.) African Americans confirmed their status as a unique group of voters for whom the contemporary Republican Party holds no discernible appeal.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:46 pm

What I want to know is who is behind this reelection campaign? Is it Joe himself and his pride not wanting to step aside? Or is it people around him convincing him he can handle another 5 years? Is it the DNC that thinks he’s the best option to beat Trump?

What exactly is going on here?

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:19 pm

Cap wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:57 pm

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:46 pm

What I want to know is who is behind this reelection campaign? Is it Joe himself and his pride not wanting to step aside? Or is it people around him convincing him he can handle another 5 years? Is it the DNC that thinks he’s the best option to beat Trump?

What exactly is going on here?

Nobody else has stepped up, and it’s way too late for anyone to do so.

But that’s like a chicken or the egg scenario. Nobody stepped up because they didn’t want to challenge Biden. If he had stepped aside, I’m sure there would have been bigger name candidates stepping up.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:19 pm

Cap wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:57 pm

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:46 pm

What I want to know is who is behind this reelection campaign? Is it Joe himself and his pride not wanting to step aside? Or is it people around him convincing him he can handle another 5 years? Is it the DNC that thinks he’s the best option to beat Trump?

What exactly is going on here?

Nobody else has stepped up, and it’s way too late for anyone to do so.

But that’s like a chicken or the egg scenario. Nobody stepped up because they didn’t want to challenge Biden. If he had stepped aside, I’m sure there would have been bigger name candidates stepping up.

Cap wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 7:15 pm

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:19 pm

Cap wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:57 pm

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 4:46 pm

What I want to know is who is behind this reelection campaign? Is it Joe himself and his pride not wanting to step aside? Or is it people around him convincing him he can handle another 5 years? Is it the DNC that thinks he’s the best option to beat Trump?

What exactly is going on here?

Nobody else has stepped up, and it’s way too late for anyone to do so.

But that’s like a chicken or the egg scenario. Nobody stepped up because they didn’t want to challenge Biden. If he had stepped aside, I’m sure there would have been bigger name candidates stepping up.

Which bigger names do you have in mind?

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 5:26 pm

In2ition wrote: ↑

Mon Dec 18, 2023 10:56 am

I don't know anything definitively, but every time he gets indicted his numbers go up. Even when Fulton County went so far as to give him a mugshot and then released it, his numbers went up again and he gained supporters all across the country in the black community. Even after Judge Engoron unilaterally ruled against him in the fraud case in NY where the Judge claimed that Mar-a-Lago was only worth $17 million, after Trump estimated it to be much larger, and that was part of the Judge's proof, Trump's numbers went up. It just doesn't seem to be convincing all that many people, except those that are Never Trumpers or Vote Blue No Matter Who Dems. I think a lot of independents and I've seen even Dems are looking at the facts involved in a lot of these cases and saying, "WTF are we doing here? We keep turning him into a martyr." Am I using faulty logic here?

I think the idea of Trump attracting black voters is a myth and shows white Republicans' misunderstanding of black voters as a group. Trump's numbers with black voters are abysmal. It's true that there have been 1-2 recent studies or polls that show his numbers going up a bit with black voters. But even then it tops out at around 17%, which is still horrendous:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 889796007/

And in 2020, people were worrying about the same thing, the lack of "enthusiasm" among Black voters for Biden as a candidate. And those worries ended up being completely unfounded; Biden got 92% of the black vote.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/new- ... he-future/

Contrary to the fears of some Democrats, Biden maintained solid support among African Americans. Biden received 92% of the Black vote, statistically indistinguishable from Hillary Clinton’s 91% in 2016. His support among Black women was never in doubt, but President Trump’s alleged appeal to Black men turned out to be illusory. (His share of the Black male vote fell from 14% in 2016 to 12% in 2020 while Biden raised the Democrats’ share from 81% to 87%.) African Americans confirmed their status as a unique group of voters for whom the contemporary Republican Party holds no discernible appeal.

The idea that seeing a picture of a mug shot raised Trump's standing in the black community is, frankly, naive and a bit stereotyped. Do you think black people think mugshots are super cool? So they'll vote for the cool dude who is so gangsta and has a mug shot?

As for Trump's numbers going up in general when he gets indicted, I think that's mostly bunk, too. Newsweek did an article on this and analyzed the numbers. It's true that Trump *says* his numbers go up when indicted. And it's also true that his numbers went up -in the GOP primary, not among general election voters- after his first indictment. But the other indictments didn't move the numbers much at all, and in general none of the indictments have been shown to have helped him in the general election numbers. I would rate this claim as murky at best.

https://www.newsweek.com/did-donald-tru ... rs-1832694

BBC ran an article titled, "Why Trump's poll lead went up after criminal indictments." But it's clear they're talking about his GOP PRIMARY polling, not general election polling.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66274979

Three years after Donald Trump pulled about 8 percent of the Black vote nationally, polling this month by The New York Times and Siena College of six battleground states found his support had bumped up to 22 percent of the Black electorate if the election were held today. Other polls looked even worse for the Democrats; a national poll by CNN registered Trump’s support among Black voters at 23 percent, while an earlier Fox News poll put it at 26 percent.