Phx-Suns.Net

WW and the Dixie Dance Kings* for a return engagement ...




(*obscure Burt Reynolds movie)

Nice to see you, WW. Have you been working on your model?

Wormwood wrote:

virtual9mm wrote:Welcome back!

Which think tank, by the way, without giving away too many details? Work with a guy named Loren?

We have about 1700 employees. We're also biggest name in FFRDCs.

Santa Monica, eh. Great place! I guess you are on the classified side, and can't talk details?

My take on the team:

Booker is the only untouchable, but his defense sucks. Bledsoe is good... but I don't know that he can lead a winning team. His 3 point shooting and passing are both average for a starter.

Knight is a horrific defender. Second worst in the league per Adjusted RPM. It's gonna cost us at least a high first round draft pick to unload his contract, which is weighing us down the way Penny and Googs did.

Tyson Chandler is still a valuable player.

Len isn't a bust per say, but his level of play four years in hasn't risen above "solid back up". If he's making more than $6m/year this summer, let him walk or S&T.

T.J. Warren isn't a 3 point shooter, and is a terrible defender. We're a terrible 3 point shooting team. Even at 32, Dudley is still a more valuable player. (PS: Dudley is not a PF. That was a Hedo Turkoglu all over again)

Speaking of "All of this has happened before, and all of this will happen again," Bender strikes me as a bit of a Nikoloz Tskishvili. (Hint: that's not a compliment)

As for the draft, even if we land the #1 spot I say take Lonzo Ball. The funky shot mechanics be damned, he shoots 41.2% from college 3 pt range, is great at rebounding for a PG, and has eyes in the back of his head. The kid is a special talent. Like, Jason Kidd level with a better J coming out of college. Fultz is a really good player, I'd be happy with him. I don't like Josh Jackson. He shoots really poorly, and we don't need anymore wings that can't hit the three. (Jackson sort of reminds me of Otto Porter).

Tyler Ullis was our best pick in the draft, potentially. Our back up PG situation is set.

Chriss has good visuals, but his stats are pretty underwhelming. Still, his range, age, and athleticism mean he's going to get a very extended look.

Knight isn't weighing the Suns down and it's not going to cost them a high first to get rid of them. What free agents have we missed out on because of his salary? What young player have we had to let go because of a salary cap issue?

Bender is not a Tskishvili, that is a lazy comparison based on being a tall skinny Euro. They don't have the same type of game or focused skills.

Josh Jackson was shooting pretty well as the season went on, and comparing him to Otto Porter, who is shooting 44% from 3 this year and will most likely demand a max contract this summer, makes no sense when you say that Jackson can't shoot.

Otherwise, I agree with your takes of the team. I would like to see Booker improve his defense and his efficiency this summer to take the next step.

In2ition wrote:Knight isn't weighing the Suns down and it's not going to cost them a high first to get rid of them. What free agents have we missed out on because of his salary? What young player have we had to let go because of a salary cap issue?

Bender is not a Tskishvili, that is a lazy comparison based on being a tall skinny Euro. They don't have the same type of game or focused skills.

Josh Jackson was shooting pretty well as the season went on, and comparing him to Otto Porter, who is shooting 44% from 3 this year and will most likely demand a max contract this summer, makes no sense when you say that Jackson can't shoot.

Otherwise, I agree with your takes of the team. I would like to see Booker improve his defense and his efficiency this summer to take the next step.

Ok, going back and reviewing Porter's college numbers, you're right, poor comparison. That was off the top of my head, mea culpa. Still, Jackson's terrible FT% is a big concern for me. That's often indicative that 3-pt % won't go up by a lot during his career.

* Still disagree on Knight. Hard to envision anyone taking him off our hands without a significant amount of bribery. A lot of the free agents we may miss out on haven't happened yet, so it's unfair to judge opportunity cost now, but suffice it to say, that $14 million on Knight is money we won't have available to spend on someone who's actually a good player.

* Other than their height, weight, draft position, position played, age when drafted, and on-court stats being nearly identical, Tskishvili and Bender have almost nothing in common. (Seriously, though, Bender had a PER of 6.14 and Tskitishvili had a PER of 5.17 their rookie years)

Wormwood wrote: * Still disagree on Knight. Hard to envision anyone taking him off our hands without a significant amount of bribery. A lot of the free agents we may miss out on haven't happened yet, so it's unfair to judge opportunity cost now, but suffice it to say, that $14 million on Knight is money we won't have available to spend on someone who's actually a good player.

Even if that was true, you just Josh Smith him and move on. No way I am paying anything valuable to remove him.

* Other than their height, weight, draft position, position played, age when drafted, and on-court stats being nearly identical, Tskishvili and Bender have almost nothing in common. (Seriously, though, Bender had a PER of 6.14 and Tskitishvili had a PER of 5.17 their rookie years)

Kirilenko looks like a better comp, by the eye test. Skita or Cabarkapa will always come up with these types, but from what I've seen, Bender plays defense and can do a little of everything, glue guy style.

Wormwood wrote:
* Still disagree on Knight. Hard to envision anyone taking him off our hands without a significant amount of bribery. A lot of the free agents we may miss out on haven't happened yet, so it's unfair to judge opportunity cost now, but suffice it to say, that $14 million on Knight is money we won't have available to spend on someone who's actually a good player.

* Other than their height, weight, draft position, position played, age when drafted, and on-court stats being nearly identical, Tskishvili and Bender have almost nothing in common. (Seriously, though, Bender had a PER of 6.14 and Tskitishvili had a PER of 5.17 their rookie years)

I haven't compared their stats from that year. When I'm watching them though, there is a difference and it usually starts on defense. Last night was a good example. He played only 9 minutes in the first half, but had 9 points, with a couple of soft hookshots in the lane, a dunk and a 3 pointer. He also pulled down 6 boards in that short time. Tskitishvili was way to soft to go inside, get rebounds or actually play defense. I can see Bender improving quite a bit over the off-season and coming back with more court time and contributing all over the court.

We don't know very much about Dragan Bender. But even at this early stage, it's an insult to him to call him a Tskita. He's much better and has a more versatile and varied skillset.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:We don't know very much about Dragan Bender. But even at this early stage, it's an insult to him to call him a Tskita. He's much better and has a more versatile and varied skillset.

Oh, how soon we forget...

There was large portion of people on this board who thought Tskita was the next big thing.

After the development of Dirk Nowitzki, scouts and front office types were getting the vapors for any 7-foot European teenager who could dribble between his legs and hit a trey in a workout. Here's a sample ...

"Said ESPN's Chad Ford, evaluating the 2002 NBA Draft:

In the end, Denver just couldn't pass on Tskitishvili's upside. Some have predicted that he's three years away. I don't think so. We said the same thing about Pau Gasol last year. He's so sound fundamentally, I think he'll be just fine at small forward. Eventually, he'll put on weight and muscle and turn into a devastating four. In five years, he may be the Kevin Garnett of this draft.

There was also this report from a scout ...

"Every team in the NBA traveled to Treviso to see him play. They all came away impressed. It isn't very often that you find a big man with the type of skills he possesses. While he's still a project at 19, he's as fundamentally sound as anyone in the draft. Has the potential to play four positions in the NBA, that's why he's getting all of the attention ..."

I'm hoping Bender is much more talented and has a better career. But I don't think WW is that far off base in his comparison ... especially since we haven't seen much of Bender on the court this season.

^ LL, you aren't wrong. But all that hype was pre-draft. Once he actually started playing, he had almost no game and accomplished extremely little. Bender has shown way more on the floor at this point IMO.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:^ LL, you aren't wrong. But all that hype was pre-draft. Once he actually started playing, he had almost no game and accomplished extremely little. Bender has shown way more on the floor at this point IMO.

I don't remember watching tskitishvili play, but I doubt bender has shown way more on the floor, he's hardly been on the floor. I think bender will do more than tskitishvili and be a better player, but his on court production isn't a great argument right now.

Welcome back !!!