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INFORMER wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:58 pm

I think the no-brainer narrative surrounding Ayton contradicts what the analysts have to stay with about some of the other prospects. Take the mock draft special on ESPN. Mike Schmitz essentially says you have to take Ayton, but then you hear him talk about some of the other top prospects and I can't help but think, "wait, if what you're saying is true about these prospects, how on earth can Ayton be a no-brainer?"

And let's be clear: after Steph Curry wowed in the Warriors 60 gazillion win season, there was a strong contingent, and I mean STRONG, saying that you needed to draft D'Angelo Russell first over Karl-Anthony Towns, because small guards are the difference-maker now. I wasn't on that boat.

So I am not just coming from the angle of "big men don't matter" blah, blah, blah; I am just talking about what matters most to winning basketball: Doncic's skillset meets that criteria better than Ayton. I see Ayton like the Nash-less Suns, circa 2003-04: talented, but ultimately just guys getting numbers and not winning at a high level. I think Doncic can an effect on this team the way Nash did in 2004.

Really good post here.

I find Ayton's ceiling as similar of what you described. A big man putting up phenomenal stats but no wins. Like Kevin Love in Minnesota.

UglyTruth wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:23 am

I find Ayton's ceiling as similar of what you described. A big man putting up phenomenal stats but no wins. Like Kevin Love in Minnesota.

I mean, isn't Amare the comparison for Ayton? I see people like nbadraft.net comparing him to David Robinson and Shawn Kemp. Kemp, maybe. But Robinson? Wasn't the Admiral a way better defender coming out of college than Ayton?

I think INF is right that if we draft Ayton, we'll be like the '03 Suns. Amare and Marion were amazing, but we weren't going anywhere.

So if we draft Ayton, JJ/Booker and co just aren't gonna get any better and we'll stagnate as a team? Got it. I think I'm gonna stay outta the draft threads now, can't handle this incredible insight.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:11 am

UglyTruth wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:23 am

I find Ayton's ceiling as similar of what you described. A big man putting up phenomenal stats but no wins. Like Kevin Love in Minnesota.

I mean, isn't Amare the comparison for Ayton? I see people like nbadraft.net comparing him to David Robinson and Shawn Kemp. Kemp, maybe. But Robinson? Wasn't the Admiral a way better defender coming out of college than Ayton?

I think INF is right that if we draft Ayton, we'll be like the '03 Suns. Amare and Marion were amazing, but we weren't going anywhere.

I think Amare had better moves in the paint and quickness than Ayton. Ayton is also a better rebounder than Amare.

A more athletic but worse 3pt shooting Kevin Love is the best comparison for Ayton imo.

Amar'e had no moves in the paint. He was a 1 dribble dunker. He had no back to the basket moves, no left hand.

I think INF is right that if we draft Ayton, we'll be like the '03 Suns. Amare and Marion were amazing, but we weren't going anywhere.

Also been saying that. We need an engine to make it go, someone to put it all together. Otherwise we're just a collection of pieces.

Amare had a good face up game and better skills with that than Ayton does.

I feel like 10 years from now, LeBron James Jr could be saying this about Doncic and the Suns
https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1004788898667646976

His face up game was a bad fake and one dribble. He was a knockdown midrange shooter and probably could've shot 3s just as well. But he was just a physical force which is why he faded out. CWeb, even with the lost athleticism, could still provide post play, passing and rebounding late in his career.

ShelC wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:38 am

Amar'e had no moves in the paint. He was a 1 dribble dunker. He had no back to the basket moves, no left hand.

I think INF is right that if we draft Ayton, we'll be like the '03 Suns. Amare and Marion were amazing, but we weren't going anywhere.

Also been saying that. We need an engine to make it go, someone to put it all together. Otherwise we're just a collection of pieces.

And this is exactly what McD does. There isn't a vision of how to assemble a team. It is simply, "this guy is great at X, and we can always use a guy great at that. Let's sign/draft/trade for him!" Drives me crazy.

UglyTruth wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:41 am

Amare had a good face up game and better skills with that than Ayton does.

Not when he came into the league.

Cap wrote:

UglyTruth wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:41 am

Amare had a good face up game and better skills with that than Ayton does.

Not when he came into the league.

Thank you. He was essentially just a power dunker at first but he had those great hands from day 1. I recall most fans being very impressed he added that midrange shot. He worked at it until it was damn near automatic.

carey wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:28 am

Cap wrote:

UglyTruth wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:41 am

Amare had a good face up game and better skills with that than Ayton does.

Not when he came into the league.

Thank you. He was essentially just a power dunker at first but he had those great hands from day 1. I recall most fans being very impressed he added that midrange shot. He worked at it until it was damn near automatic.

Exactly. He was just really, really raw when he started here. He had those amazing hands, but if he wasn't dunking, he worried you. I think those injuries really helped him develop his shot, since you can do that with no contact drills and very little movement.

TheOriginalOriginal wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:30 am

So if we draft Ayton, JJ/Booker and co just aren't gonna get any better and we'll stagnate as a team? Got it. I think I'm gonna stay outta the draft threads now, can't handle this incredible insight.

Ayton is a guy who needs to be fed. Booker / JJ etc are going to have to create shot opportunities for him just like they do for Len / Chandler. Of course, Ayton's a MUCH better target than those guys and will be a lot easier to feed. So in that sense he will make the game easier for the rest of the team. But he isn't going to create shots for the team. It's still going to be up to the Booker and company to create the shots.

Doncic is a guy who creates easy shots for other guys. Booker could actually play off the ball and focus on scoring.

TheOriginalOriginal wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:30 am

So if we draft Ayton, JJ/Booker and co just aren't gonna get any better and we'll stagnate as a team? Got it. I think I'm gonna stay outta the draft threads now, can't handle this incredible insight.

Yeah, not sure why these guys even watch the games. They already know what's going to happen. Must be a curse to have such deep insight and be all-knowing.

You guys do know there's more than the draft, right? There are other ways to get distributors. We are not locked into our team after the draft.

Superbone wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 8:57 am

TheOriginalOriginal wrote: ↑

Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:30 am

So if we draft Ayton, JJ/Booker and co just aren't gonna get any better and we'll stagnate as a team? Got it. I think I'm gonna stay outta the draft threads now, can't handle this incredible insight.

Yeah, not sure why these guys even watch the games. They already know what's going to happen. Must be a curse to have such deep insight and be all-knowing.

This from Mr. "The League was ruined by Durant! Everyone knows who's winning for the next 6 years." Come on now.

What we are doing here is exactly what pre-draft offseason is for. We are projecting how various players will fit with our team, how much they will grow, and what areas they will grow in. No need to get snarky just because a few of us don't love the most popular prospect.

I'm at the point where I'll get behind just about anything we do in this draft. I think any of the top 6 guys(Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, JJJ, Bamba, Porter) can become the best player in this draft. I guess there is always a chance someone comes out of nowhere, like Mitchell this year, but I think that's unlikely.

To me, Ayton feels like the most likely to be the best player, but just barely. All 6 have great reasons to draft them and a few reasons to be concerned.

Ayton:
Good: Size, strength, athleticism, skill.
Concerns: Defense, modern fit.
Outlook: I think he's pretty easily a 20/10 guy. Are they empty numbers or does he also make things easier for Booker/Jackson etc? Does he play defense?

Doncic:
Good: shooting, passing, ball handling, size
Concerns: Athleticism
Outlook: I think he's at least going to be a versatile offensive wing (Joe Johnson, Hedo turkoglu, Manu) Does NBA athleticism limit him as a primary ball handler? Can he improve his first step/body/handle to be a harden like primary handler?

Bagley:
Good: Athleticism, Modern big man skills
Concerns: Defense
Outlook: I think he's also easily 20/10 and his shot/handle are more advanced than Ayton. Can he defend anyone? Is his shot legit?

JJJ:
Good: Shooting, rim protection, defensive versatility
Concerns: Rebounding, offensive versatility
Outlook: I think he'll be fantastic defensively. Can he do anything on offense besides shoot?

Bamba:
Good: Size, defense
Concerns: Offense
Outlook: Looks like an elite defensive player, can he be a positive on offense?

Porter:
Good: size, shooting
Concerns: health
Outlook: I think he'll at least be a big shooter (rashard Lewis, peja) Can he create off the dribble? Will he be a good defender?

I'm just ready for the draft to be over, I'm nervous as I don't really trust that we'll make the right pick, but I'll get behind whoever we choose.

Superbone wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 12, 2018 11:25 pm

INFORMER wrote: ↑

Tue Jun 12, 2018 10:37 pm

I think he is just as much of a PG as Ben Simmons.

Neither of them are point guards. They're both point forwards.

You're right; that is a more accurate description.

I worry that Doncic might struggle with pressure in the NBA. Is he quick enough and have the handle to beat Patrick Beverly pressuring him full court?

Will there be a mock draft game this year? Probably a fun year for one.