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Nodack wrote: ↑

Fri May 17, 2024 7:22 am

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes the chances of a second American Civil War stand better than one out of three and is urging investors to move part of their assets out of the country.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savinga ... r-BB1muUad
“We are now on the brink,” he told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday, estimating the probability of strife erupting at somewhere between 35% to 40%.

I don't think we will get into a civil war. I don't think the division falls as cleanly into states / territories as it used to. I think there are too many blue people in red states and too many red people in blue states. More likely than a literal civil war would just be kind of mass violence, crime, riots, that sort of thing, over a certain period.

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Fri May 17, 2024 9:36 am

Nodack wrote: ↑

Fri May 17, 2024 7:22 am

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio believes the chances of a second American Civil War stand better than one out of three and is urging investors to move part of their assets out of the country.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savinga ... r-BB1muUad
“We are now on the brink,” he told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday, estimating the probability of strife erupting at somewhere between 35% to 40%.

I don't think we will get into a civil war. I don't think the division falls as cleanly into states / territories as it used to. I think there are too many blue people in red states and too many red people in blue states. More likely than a literal civil war would just be kind of mass violence, crime, riots, that sort of thing, over a certain period.

I agree. Hopefully, we don't get to this point, ever again. We don't need this.

A big problem in this election is that random people think things are bad that are actually good. I think conservative media panic is a big part of this.

Can we assume that a lot of these random people, probably don't have much stock and are suffering from other issues in the economy that may be skewing their perception of the economy? It could be said that shows the gap in perception to reality, in that these are things that are important to those that have stocks and are well off, but do not translate to those that are working 9 to 5 jobs, possibly multiple jobs and just trying to survive paycheck to paycheck from week to week.

It's a good and difficult question. I'm no expert, but my dumb opinion is that it's a combination of a few things:

a) negative media repeatedly claiming that things are awful;
b) greed on the part of some companies, oil producers, etc.; and
c) lack of understanding / perspective about how things are and how they used to be.

I concede that many folks do face hardship and worry about making ends meet. But that doesn't mean that things are necessarily worse than they were a few years ago.

I think another big factor is that it has never been easier to fuck up and go beyond your means and get into trouble. So many people rack up huge credit card debt at high interest rates, get suckered into loans they shouldn't take such as new car payments, or get hooked on buying conveniences like DoorDash or Amazon goodies that they probably can't really afford. It's so easy to be parted from your money nowadays with just a few clicks on your phone or mouse.

I think all or some of those can be the case for many people. It doesn't cover the fact that gas prices are much higher, rent, homes and mortgage rates are much higher, grocery prices, and insurance rates across the board are much higher. It's my perception that people on this board are not affected by such mundane issues, and now that the stock market has turned upwards, they are much better off now, after a few years of staying stagnant in most stocks.

So if many folks are facing hardship about making ends meat, that means that obviously things are worse for them then a few years ago. I don't think just ignoring their issues really makes those in charge look very sympathetic or even empathetic.

I think you are an active GOP fan and as one it is kind of your duty in todays world to attack the other side. Dems are just as guilty. You have done a marvelous job of this. No matter what happens in the US or world it will be the GOP’s job under a Democrat President to downplay anything good and play up anything bad. Claims that Dems just don’t care is a little over the top.

I think there is always people in the US suffering from various things since forever and probably forever. In my younger years I was extremely poor and wondered where my next paycheck was going to come from. Happens to most people. The world and its economies are constantly changing, going up and down. We have weathered many a storm.

Long story short. If Trump was President right now and the economy was exactly the same as it is now, you would be saying the complete opposite as you are now imo.

It's possible that I would try to spin things to make it seem like it's better than it actually is. So you're saying that you guys would be doing exactly what I'm doing if things were flipped around?

Probably.

At least we're being honest.

It’s sad really. It’s a war for the soul of the country I guess and in war you try to win. In basketball you flop sometimes to draw a foul. Both sides want to win and making the other side look bad is what it’s all about.

I didn't complain about the economy under Trump's watch. Politics doesn't seem to affect it much at all despite what the pundits would have you believe.

In your defense, the economy was pretty good for just about everyone under Trump's watch. It was covid in the last year that was bad.

No president is going to stop the gouging. Businesses will continue to raise prices on necessary goods because we HAVE to buy them. That's what covid showed and it's never going back.

In2ition wrote: ↑

Wed May 22, 2024 12:51 pm

In your defense, the economy was pretty good for just about everyone under Trump's watch. It was covid in the last year that was bad.

Thanks but my statement doesn't need any defense. Like I said, who is president doesn't affect the economy much.

There is some theory that deflation is worse than inflation. I agree that it's most likely that these prices don't go down, unless demand decreases for them and supply stays the same.

Superbone wrote: ↑

Wed May 22, 2024 1:49 pm

In2ition wrote: ↑

Wed May 22, 2024 12:51 pm

In your defense, the economy was pretty good for just about everyone under Trump's watch. It was covid in the last year that was bad.

Thanks but my statement doesn't need any defense. Like I said, who is president doesn't affect the economy much.

Maybe your economy isn't affected much, but it affected a lot of other people that aren't you.

This probably won't pass in the Senate, but if it does, it will probably be vetoed by Biden, imo. Not sure why you would vote against it though.

Who are the non-citizens that are allowed to vote? Documented permanent residents that just don’t have citizenship? I don’t think that’s an automatic no.