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We can't wait four years.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:00 pmI'm perplexed by this. Seems like people are simultaneously underrating and overrating Ayton. He's not worth the max, but I'm only taking back a superstar in a S&T.. How does that make sense?TOO wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 6:22 amThis isnt near enough value for Ayton, and I'm saying this as probably his biggest hater lol.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:47 amOff the wall idea of the day (that I think works)..
Cam Payne & Ayton sign and trade to Charlotte for Terry Rozier and the 13th pick. Use the 13th pick on Mark Williams from Duke.
In defense of my idea, even though it's not possible, Terry Rozier is really damn good and he'd provide an easy transition post-Chris Paul. I also like Mark Williams a lot as a draft prospect, maybe more than most. I see a pretty clear path for him to be at Ayton's current level after his 4th season in the NBA.
There’s just too many negatives for making minor trades. Perhaps the best thing to do is to re-sign Ayton and see if there’s someone out their on the cheap for a 3rd guard like a Denis Schroder. He may not be a great shot creator but he’s a dynamic scorer off the bench and more reliable as a backup than Cam Payne.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:39 pmIn a vacuum, every trade involving Ayton will make the Suns worse. One of the biggest reasons for not paying him the max is the opportunity to improve the surrounding talent on the roster. For example, significantly upgrading the third guard position and adding a reliable playmaker/shot creator.
The guys you mentioned aren’t much worse than Shamet. Not for $10M+Indy wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 7:03 pmMinimum guards are what we had with Galloway last year. They are not usually 6-4 and play average to slightly above average defense while shooting 37% from 3 on volume in limited minutes. I agree that Shamet shouldn't be the person you count on to be your best backup PG and your best backup SG. But he is much better than a minimum guard. Minimum salary guards are guys like former Suns Jevon Carter and Danuel House and current Sun Elfrid Payton.specialsauce wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 5:45 pmShamet doesn’t offer much that a player at the minimum can’t replace for the most part. I would hope we get off his stupid contract this off-season as well as Craig’s one way or another.
This type of thinking is too linear. There are numerous ways to improve the roster besides acquiring a 1-for-1 player of Ayton's ability. In this hypothetical, Mark Williams wouldn't be the Suns starter next season.Superbone wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:58 pmWe can't wait four years.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:00 pmI'm perplexed by this. Seems like people are simultaneously underrating and overrating Ayton. He's not worth the max, but I'm only taking back a superstar in a S&T.. How does that make sense?TOO wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 6:22 amThis isnt near enough value for Ayton, and I'm saying this as probably his biggest hater lol.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:47 amOff the wall idea of the day (that I think works)..
Cam Payne & Ayton sign and trade to Charlotte for Terry Rozier and the 13th pick. Use the 13th pick on Mark Williams from Duke.
In defense of my idea, even though it's not possible, Terry Rozier is really damn good and he'd provide an easy transition post-Chris Paul. I also like Mark Williams a lot as a draft prospect, maybe more than most. I see a pretty clear path for him to be at Ayton's current level after his 4th season in the NBA.
Yes, but not that. Schroder is undeniably a locker room cancer at this point. He's probably more disliked than Pat Beverly.Drewsprocket wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:28 pmThere’s just too many negatives for making minor trades. Perhaps the best thing to do is to re-sign Ayton and see if there’s someone out their on the cheap for a 3rd guard like a Denis Schroder. He may not be a great shot creator but he’s a dynamic scorer off the bench and more reliable as a backup than Cam Payne.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:39 pmIn a vacuum, every trade involving Ayton will make the Suns worse. One of the biggest reasons for not paying him the max is the opportunity to improve the surrounding talent on the roster. For example, significantly upgrading the third guard position and adding a reliable playmaker/shot creator.
With a little luck we could have a better off season than this year and have a better market for trading Ayton next offseason. If Saric is able to recover, Monty can have his small ball 5 who creates for others.m off the bench.
They're worse. Elf is unplayable, Carter's a energy guy you throw out there a few minutes a game every few games, Gallo can't handle the ball or play defense and Moore lost a step. I don't love this year's version of Shamet at $10 but that's still a moveable deal for a young guard. And, for all the shit we give Payne, he's only making $6mil/year.specialsauce wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:33 pmThe guys you mentioned aren’t much worse than Shamet. Not for $10M+Indy wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 7:03 pmMinimum guards are what we had with Galloway last year. They are not usually 6-4 and play average to slightly above average defense while shooting 37% from 3 on volume in limited minutes. I agree that Shamet shouldn't be the person you count on to be your best backup PG and your best backup SG. But he is much better than a minimum guard. Minimum salary guards are guys like former Suns Jevon Carter and Danuel House and current Sun Elfrid Payton.specialsauce wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 5:45 pmShamet doesn’t offer much that a player at the minimum can’t replace for the most part. I would hope we get off his stupid contract this off-season as well as Craig’s one way or another.
We had decent balance on paper to start the season, with DA and JaVale filling the paint big role and Frank in the perimeter big/connector role. Dario was injured so he was a non-factor. We only signed Biz because of injuries/covid in the middle of the season. If Dario is back and healthy we have more versatility. I wouldn't even mind Frank back if he can stay healthy himself.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:39 pmThis type of thinking is too linear. There are numerous ways to improve the roster besides acquiring a 1-for-1 player of Ayton's ability. In this hypothetical, Mark Williams wouldn't be the Suns starter next season.Superbone wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:58 pmWe can't wait four years.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:00 pmI'm perplexed by this. Seems like people are simultaneously underrating and overrating Ayton. He's not worth the max, but I'm only taking back a superstar in a S&T.. How does that make sense?TOO wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 6:22 amThis isnt near enough value for Ayton, and I'm saying this as probably his biggest hater lol.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:47 amOff the wall idea of the day (that I think works)..
Cam Payne & Ayton sign and trade to Charlotte for Terry Rozier and the 13th pick. Use the 13th pick on Mark Williams from Duke.
In defense of my idea, even though it's not possible, Terry Rozier is really damn good and he'd provide an easy transition post-Chris Paul. I also like Mark Williams a lot as a draft prospect, maybe more than most. I see a pretty clear path for him to be at Ayton's current level after his 4th season in the NBA.
I think James Jones got too deep into the forest to see the trees at the Center position. He was fixated on getting bigger to match up with other big teams like the Lakers and Bucks, so we ended up with three guys who have the same limitations at the position. A wiser move is to differentiate the skills within the position. One or two stretch players matched with one or two rim running players.
You're right. I thought about Frank later after writing that post. He would've been more playable than McGee in the Mavs series if he were healthy. Jalen Smith as well, and his trade still bothers me due to how little of a factor Holiday and Craig were.ShelC wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:54 amWe had decent balance on paper to start the season, with DA and JaVale filling the paint big role and Frank in the perimeter big/connector role. Dario was injured so he was a non-factor. We only signed Biz because of injuries/covid in the middle of the season. If Dario is back and healthy we have more versatility. I wouldn't even mind Frank back if he can stay healthy himself.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:39 pmThis type of thinking is too linear. There are numerous ways to improve the roster besides acquiring a 1-for-1 player of Ayton's ability. In this hypothetical, Mark Williams wouldn't be the Suns starter next season.Superbone wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:58 pmWe can't wait four years.Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:00 pmI'm perplexed by this. Seems like people are simultaneously underrating and overrating Ayton. He's not worth the max, but I'm only taking back a superstar in a S&T.. How does that make sense?
In defense of my idea, even though it's not possible, Terry Rozier is really damn good and he'd provide an easy transition post-Chris Paul. I also like Mark Williams a lot as a draft prospect, maybe more than most. I see a pretty clear path for him to be at Ayton's current level after his 4th season in the NBA.
I think James Jones got too deep into the forest to see the trees at the Center position. He was fixated on getting bigger to match up with other big teams like the Lakers and Bucks, so we ended up with three guys who have the same limitations at the position. A wiser move is to differentiate the skills within the position. One or two stretch players matched with one or two rim running players.
Reminds me of the Suns starting PG for most of the Mavs series.
I’m sure the people in Orlando have access to the same information and can extrapolate the same thing. Why would they waste $100 million?Split T wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:31 pmOk so I did a deep dive on Wendell Carter Jr. I am now in favor of making a S&T for him if Orlando is interested. Here’s why:
First off, looking at the Orlando roster, they have a lot nice young players, but not enough great players. I count 10(counting their 1st pick) guys that they’d consider part of their future and they’d do well to turn some of that quantity to quality.
Guards: Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, RJ Hampton
Wings: Franz Wagner, Jonathan Issac, Chuma Okeke
Bigs: Wendell Carter Jr, Mo Bamba,
Add Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, or Chet Holmgren to the list too.
Let me first start off by saying, Ayton is better than Carter, but I think it’s closer than most would admit. Here are their box score stats on a per/75 possession basis:
21.0 pts 12.5 reb 1.8 ast .8 stl .8 blk 2.0 to
18.2 pts 12.7 reb 3.4 ast .7 stl .8 blk 2.3 to
That’s awfully close. Carter is the 2nd one and scores 3 points less, but makes up for it with nearly double the assists. Everything else is essentially the same.
You turn to efficiency and Ayton does win there, which probably explains the 3 points per game difference. Ayton shoots .642 from 2, .368 from 3, and .746 from the line for a TS% of .656.
Carter goes .615 from 2, .327 from 3, and .691 from the line for a TS% of .601.
I dove deeper into the shooting though to see exactly where they shoot from and at what percent.
By zone, Ayton takes 4.0 fga per game at the rim compared to 3.6 for Carter. Ayton shoots 79.3% on these shots while Carter shoots 78.1%. Not considering free throws, Ayton is scoring 159 points/100 possessions when he takes a shot at the rim. Carter is at 156 points/100.
On non-rim paint shots, essentially floater range, Ayton takes 4.8 fga per game and shoots 58.8%. Carter takes 2.2 fga per game and shoots 45.7%. Pretty significant difference. Ayton would score 118 points/100 while Carter is at 91 points/100.
In the mid range, Ayton takes 2.2 fga and shoots 55.5% while Carter takes 1.1 fga and shoots 47.8%. Ayton would score 111 points/100 and Carter is at 96 points/100.
On long twos, Ayton takes .7 per game at 41.5% and Carter takes .6 at 46.2%. Not much for either, but Ayton is at 83 points/100 and Carter at 92 points/100.
On 3pt attempts, Ayton takes .3 per game at 36.8%. Carter takes 3.4 per game at 32.7%. Ayton would score 110 points/100 and Carter at 98 points/100.
Those points per/100 don’t factor in free throws though. Now I don’t have the data to determine how often each are fouled in every zone, but I do have their overall ft rate. Ayton is at .204 and Carter at .303. If we assume they get fouled equally on all shot attempts(not likely, but it’s the best I can do) this is how those points/100 change.
At the rim, Ayton is 174 points/100 and Carter is 177 points/100.
Non-rim paint shots has Ayton at 133 points/100 and Carter at 112 points/100.
Mid range shots has Ayton at 126 points/100 and Carter at 117 points/100.
Long 2s has Ayton at 98 points/100 and Carter at 113 points/100.
3s has Ayton at 125 points/100 and Carter at 119 points/100.
Ayton still more efficient almost everywhere(essentially the same at the rim and Carter has the edge on super small sample size of long 2s), but Carter is still pretty efficient across the board.
Advanced stats like Ayton better:
WS/48 goes .203 to .129 in favor of Ayton
BPM is 2.8 to 1.6 in favor of Ayton
EPM is 3.2 to 2.8 in favor of Ayton
DPM is 2.6 to .4 in favor of Ayton
RAPTOR is 1.1 to .9 in favor of Carter.
Ayton had an overall plus/minus of 9.8 to Carter’s -3.5, but that’s pretty unfair considering how bad Orlando was. Their net ratings are interesting as Carter is +8.8 and Ayton was +3.6. Still not entirely fair as the suns had good depth.
All this brings me to conclude that Ayton is better(we already knew that), but it’s closer than I realized. Carter can do 75-80% of what Ayton does for us, but what I also found interesting is Carter adds a little something that Ayton hasn’t done for us. Carter averaged 3.4 assists/75, showing he has a little playmaking juice. He also took 3.4 3pt attempts/75 and shot nearly 33%. That’s not great, but it’s serviceable and combined with his pretty solid shooting numbers from midrange and long 2s, gives me hope be can become even better. Of course Ayton is also flashing an ability to hit 3s, he’s just never come close to the volume of Carter.
So could Carter be 75% of Ayton while adding the skill set of Saric? Seems enticing, no?
Now the best part, Carter is from the same rookie class and signed an extension last summer. It’s 4 years, 50 million. 14 million next year and then declines each year(13,12,11). He might be nearly 100 million dollars cheaper than Ayton over the next 4 years, not to mention the suns could probably get more back. Cole Anthony? Chuma Okeke? Fultz? Isaac? Future 1st?
I think we’ll ultimately end up matching a max offer sheet for Ayton, but count me in as someone who’d 100% be on board for a S&T deal to Orlando centered around Wendell Carter Jr.
Not a bad take. I’m not sure they’d want Ayton though. WC jr has a very nice blow by rate on defense for a big guy. Not a great shot blocker, improving 3pt shot. You can tell he is improving his game a lot. Perhaps that’s easy to do on Orlando. Ideally we’re replacing Ayton with a big with a better offensive game on the perimeter but who can still switch onto wings.SunsRIt wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:02 pmI’m sure the people in Orlando have access to the same information and can extrapolate the same thing. Why would they waste $100 million?Split T wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:31 pmOk so I did a deep dive on Wendell Carter Jr. I am now in favor of making a S&T for him if Orlando is interested. Here’s why:
First off, looking at the Orlando roster, they have a lot nice young players, but not enough great players. I count 10(counting their 1st pick) guys that they’d consider part of their future and they’d do well to turn some of that quantity to quality.
Guards: Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz, RJ Hampton
Wings: Franz Wagner, Jonathan Issac, Chuma Okeke
Bigs: Wendell Carter Jr, Mo Bamba,
Add Jabari Smith, Paolo Banchero, or Chet Holmgren to the list too.
Let me first start off by saying, Ayton is better than Carter, but I think it’s closer than most would admit. Here are their box score stats on a per/75 possession basis:
21.0 pts 12.5 reb 1.8 ast .8 stl .8 blk 2.0 to
18.2 pts 12.7 reb 3.4 ast .7 stl .8 blk 2.3 to
That’s awfully close. Carter is the 2nd one and scores 3 points less, but makes up for it with nearly double the assists. Everything else is essentially the same.
You turn to efficiency and Ayton does win there, which probably explains the 3 points per game difference. Ayton shoots .642 from 2, .368 from 3, and .746 from the line for a TS% of .656.
Carter goes .615 from 2, .327 from 3, and .691 from the line for a TS% of .601.
I dove deeper into the shooting though to see exactly where they shoot from and at what percent.
By zone, Ayton takes 4.0 fga per game at the rim compared to 3.6 for Carter. Ayton shoots 79.3% on these shots while Carter shoots 78.1%. Not considering free throws, Ayton is scoring 159 points/100 possessions when he takes a shot at the rim. Carter is at 156 points/100.
On non-rim paint shots, essentially floater range, Ayton takes 4.8 fga per game and shoots 58.8%. Carter takes 2.2 fga per game and shoots 45.7%. Pretty significant difference. Ayton would score 118 points/100 while Carter is at 91 points/100.
In the mid range, Ayton takes 2.2 fga and shoots 55.5% while Carter takes 1.1 fga and shoots 47.8%. Ayton would score 111 points/100 and Carter is at 96 points/100.
On long twos, Ayton takes .7 per game at 41.5% and Carter takes .6 at 46.2%. Not much for either, but Ayton is at 83 points/100 and Carter at 92 points/100.
On 3pt attempts, Ayton takes .3 per game at 36.8%. Carter takes 3.4 per game at 32.7%. Ayton would score 110 points/100 and Carter at 98 points/100.
Those points per/100 don’t factor in free throws though. Now I don’t have the data to determine how often each are fouled in every zone, but I do have their overall ft rate. Ayton is at .204 and Carter at .303. If we assume they get fouled equally on all shot attempts(not likely, but it’s the best I can do) this is how those points/100 change.
At the rim, Ayton is 174 points/100 and Carter is 177 points/100.
Non-rim paint shots has Ayton at 133 points/100 and Carter at 112 points/100.
Mid range shots has Ayton at 126 points/100 and Carter at 117 points/100.
Long 2s has Ayton at 98 points/100 and Carter at 113 points/100.
3s has Ayton at 125 points/100 and Carter at 119 points/100.
Ayton still more efficient almost everywhere(essentially the same at the rim and Carter has the edge on super small sample size of long 2s), but Carter is still pretty efficient across the board.
Advanced stats like Ayton better:
WS/48 goes .203 to .129 in favor of Ayton
BPM is 2.8 to 1.6 in favor of Ayton
EPM is 3.2 to 2.8 in favor of Ayton
DPM is 2.6 to .4 in favor of Ayton
RAPTOR is 1.1 to .9 in favor of Carter.
Ayton had an overall plus/minus of 9.8 to Carter’s -3.5, but that’s pretty unfair considering how bad Orlando was. Their net ratings are interesting as Carter is +8.8 and Ayton was +3.6. Still not entirely fair as the suns had good depth.
All this brings me to conclude that Ayton is better(we already knew that), but it’s closer than I realized. Carter can do 75-80% of what Ayton does for us, but what I also found interesting is Carter adds a little something that Ayton hasn’t done for us. Carter averaged 3.4 assists/75, showing he has a little playmaking juice. He also took 3.4 3pt attempts/75 and shot nearly 33%. That’s not great, but it’s serviceable and combined with his pretty solid shooting numbers from midrange and long 2s, gives me hope be can become even better. Of course Ayton is also flashing an ability to hit 3s, he’s just never come close to the volume of Carter.
So could Carter be 75% of Ayton while adding the skill set of Saric? Seems enticing, no?
Now the best part, Carter is from the same rookie class and signed an extension last summer. It’s 4 years, 50 million. 14 million next year and then declines each year(13,12,11). He might be nearly 100 million dollars cheaper than Ayton over the next 4 years, not to mention the suns could probably get more back. Cole Anthony? Chuma Okeke? Fultz? Isaac? Future 1st?
I think we’ll ultimately end up matching a max offer sheet for Ayton, but count me in as someone who’d 100% be on board for a S&T deal to Orlando centered around Wendell Carter Jr.
Agreed. DA, in their eyes, could give them credibility as a top young FA signing with them and giving them a legit go-to scorer in the paint opposite their young guards. DA has playoff experience no one in Orlando has right now and could step into that lockerroom as a leader on Day 1. The other thing that could play a factor for DA in free agency is being closer to the Bahamas.Split T wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:47 pmThey may not…I have no clue how they feel about Ayton or WCJ. But I think it’s pretty clear Ayton is better. They may look at their roster and see no stars. While I don’t think Ayton is ever going to be a star, he’s got more potential in that world. Maybe they think if they feature him more he will out produce WCJ in a significant enough way that’s it’s worth the extra salary.
Whether they think Ayton is the guy or not, I think Orlando definitely needs to package some of their mediocre to good talent together and try and get a better talent. They could see Ayton as a rare opportunity to snag a 22 year old future star. A front line of Wagner/Smith/Ayton could be something. Of course they need a couple of their guards to pan out.