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The Bobster wrote:

TheOriginalOriginal wrote:

LazarusLong wrote:

INFORMER wrote:

carey wrote: I am not the biggest Ayton fan. I saw a lot of him and he never really wow'ed me. He's a zero on defense despite his prodigious athleticism

Wow, I'm not sure how you can come to that conclusion. He moves his feet really well on defense and does well in defending away from the basket instead of just sitting in the paint and allow his man or guards pick and pop.

Honestly, Bagley is worse on the defensive end than Ayton, and it really isn't even close.

Physically, Ayton reminds me of young Hakeem, except Ayton is about two inches taller. He's also ahead of Hakeem at this stage (19/freshman) as far as basketball development.

I see KAT 2.0. Maybe I'm guilty of only really knowing Hakeem throughout his best years because I was like 5 when he was in college, but he's the best defensive big man of all time.

Well he's on a short list.

INFORMER wrote:

carey wrote: I am not the biggest Ayton fan. I saw a lot of him and he never really wow'ed me. He's a zero on defense despite his prodigious athleticism

Wow, I'm not sure how you can come to that conclusion. He moves his feet really well on defense and does well in defending away from the basket instead of just sitting in the paint and allow his man or guards pick and pop.

Honestly, Bagley is worse on the defensive end than Ayton, and it really isn't even close.

Ayton has shown growth throughout the season and has the ability to use his athleticism to impact the game. That being said, he makes mental mistakes at a higher rate than you’d like to see from a player that is expected to be a defensive anchor. In today’s NBA, if you want to compete with the best, your center has to be able to not only move his feet in space but also be able to process multiple decisions and act on them in a split-second.

To be clear, Ayton is being asked to play out of position in a role that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson thrived in, and I don’t think that is the correct usage of his talents defensively. He is operating on the defensive end with the instincts expected of a rim-protector with a defense that is capable of rotating in when he helps on drives. While I don’t think he should lower expectations of his teammates, it probably isn’t within the team scheme for him to be helping off weakside on drives as often he does.

Sometimes it is difficult to tell if he is hedging or switching, and in lower initiated screens, he can’t hedge as aggressively or else he is at risk of a slip with no help behind him as shown in the video. These aren’t things that are impossible to improve upon, but his current ability to perform in these situations won’t cut it at the next level.

However, his defense has left a lot to be desired throughout the season. Ayton started off really rocky, much like the rest of the Wildcats on this end, and didn’t seem to understand how to operate as a weakside help defender, routinely blowing rotations and getting caught out of position to contest shots. This has improved a bit during Arizona’s 9-0 run since Rawle Alkins returned to the lineup, but he still struggles to defend at the rim. Given his athletic profile projects him to operate as a rim protector, that’s not great for his early outlook.

This has caused some to be hesitant to crown Ayton as a top-three pick. Given what we’ve seen from Karl-Anthony Towns defensively over the past two years, there is concern for how well an offense-first five can actually perform as a top player on a team in the modern NBA. Defense at the five is incredibly important to the success of a team’s overall performance, and that may limit Ayton’s effect on the win/loss column, even if he’s a dominant offensive player.

Those are legitimate concerns for when we are talking about Ayton’s ceiling, but frankly, that is likely putting the horse before the cart when it comes to the Draft. We want Ayton to be a stronger Anthony Davis because it would solidify Ayton’s floor as a prospect. The defensive issues cast doubt there. But that doesn’t mean that he’s going to be unplayable if he struggles at first. Bigs are vital to overall team defense, but they’re also typically given a long leash, especially if their offensive value is great to their team’s offensive success. That means opportunities to learn for Ayton, and a lot of his issues are things that look solvable in the right situation and given enough time.

Here’s the problem. A guy with Ayton’s incredible physical tools should block a lot of shots, and he just doesn’t. He’s much bigger and longer than the vast majority of the players he faces in college. If he just stands in front of the rim and waves his arms around, he should block shots by osmosis alone. It’s concerning, because centers who don’t block shots in college have not fared well in the NBA. Ayton is blocking shots at a historically low rate for a future lottery pick. There have been 17 NCAA centers drafted in the top 10 since 2010, and Ayton’s freshman year block rate is tied with Cody Zeller’s for second-lowest among the players in that group. Ayton is averaging only 1.7 blocks per game, with a block rate of 4.3 percent, a full standard deviation under the group average of 8.1 percent. Greg Monroe is the only player who blocked fewer shots as a freshman. Ayton is even behind Jahlil Okafor, who had a block rate of 4.5 percent. Monroe and Okafor are not the company an athletic young center should be keeping.

Of course, there’s only so much that shot-blocking numbers can tell us. The more important job for a center is having a defensive presence in the lane, and block rates are an imperfect way to capture that information. A player who chases blocks at the expense of properly positioning themselves and staying within the overall defensive system can end up hurting their team. No one will be accusing Ayton of that. He’s not even trying to block shots most of the time. There have been too many instances this season where he simply watches the ball go past him without even attempting to rotate over or even challenge the shot.

Marty [Mori Chu] wrote:I don't see Hakeem's fluidity in Ayton's offensive move set. I am not very good at NBA player comparisons, so I don't have a better player to suggest.

ShelC wrote:I also think the college game is tougher on legit bigs like Ayton because of spacing. You almost never see a dominant big lead his college team to an NCAA title.

LazarusLong wrote:"Maybe I'm guilty of only really knowing Hakeem throughout his best years because I was like 5 when he was in college, but he's the best defensive big man of all time."

A couple of guys named Russell and Thurmond might beg to differ.

Furlanfufi wrote:Back to topic...Memphis won! Uhuuuuu

Split T wrote:Ayton has question marks about being a good defensive player, but he's got less than Bagley. Also, Ayton is up to 1.9 blocks a game and a block rate of 6.1 since that article. For reference, Bagley averages under a block a game and has a block rate of 2.6

INFORMER wrote:

Split T wrote:Ayton has question marks about being a good defensive player, but he's got less than Bagley. Also, Ayton is up to 1.9 blocks a game and a block rate of 6.1 since that article. For reference, Bagley averages under a block a game and has a block rate of 2.6

Precisely. And I don't trust shot-blocking numbers in college. Lou Amundson was a shot-blocking machine. Khem Birch blocked nearly four shots a game in college. It's just not a stat that translates well to the game.

I've also never seen a big man critized for only having one and a half blocks per game.

It's interesting you point out the timing of the article: all the games of seen Ayton play have been in 2018.

O_Gardino wrote:I think the early criticisms about Ayton's defense had less to do with his shot blocking numbers and more to do with his Chandler-like positional defense. He would often be around the play, but not make an effort to contest the shot. Seems like he's gotten better about that as the season went on.

Ayton and Bagley both seem like willing defenders to me. Bagley just doesn't have a clue. He has heart and legs, but I question his bball IQ (on both sides of the floor). Ayton has looked a times like a kid just learning the game, but seems like he will get it with good coaching. I'm a lot higher on Ayton than I was early in the season.

The Bobster wrote:The Suns had better get the hiring process right this time. I'm not real impressed with the progress they've made with Len, Chriss or Bender.