Phx-Suns.Net

The Bobster wrote:According to Basketball-Reference.com.....

Suns Draft Odds -

#1 - 24.6%
#2 - 20.5%
#3 - 17.8%
#4 - 33.0%
#5 - 3.9%
#6 - 0.3%

This is a bitch. And it is only getting worse starting next year.

Ring_Wanted wrote:

The Bobster wrote:According to Basketball-Reference.com.....

Suns Draft Odds -

#1 - 24.6%
#2 - 20.5%
#3 - 17.8%
#4 - 33.0%
#5 - 3.9%
#6 - 0.3%

This is a bitch. And it is only getting worse starting next year.

I'd say it's getting better. We've benefited from tanking these last two years but I've hated it. Getting rid of the incentive to tank will be good for the league.

Split T wrote:

Ring_Wanted wrote:

The Bobster wrote:According to Basketball-Reference.com.....

Suns Draft Odds -

#1 - 24.6%
#2 - 20.5%
#3 - 17.8%
#4 - 33.0%
#5 - 3.9%
#6 - 0.3%

This is a bitch. And it is only getting worse starting next year.

I'd say it's getting better. We've benefited from tanking these last two years but I've hated it. Getting rid of the incentive to tank will be good for the league.

+2

Split T wrote:

Ring_Wanted wrote:

The Bobster wrote:According to Basketball-Reference.com.....

Suns Draft Odds -

#1 - 24.6%
#2 - 20.5%
#3 - 17.8%
#4 - 33.0%
#5 - 3.9%
#6 - 0.3%

This is a bitch. And it is only getting worse starting next year.

I'd say it's getting better. We've benefited from tanking these last two years but I've hated it. Getting rid of the incentive to tank will be good for the league.

They’re not getting rid of it, just reallocating it. The very worst teams in the league will be less incentivized to tank than they are under the current system, but late lotto teams will be more incentivized to tank than under the current system.

I don't think it was an equal reallocation though. There's slightly more incentive to tank for the better lottery teams, but the playoff pull will still be stronger and I doubt we see much tanking. Will a team out of the playoffs start tanking the last couple weeks of the season? Sure, but I don't think that's a huge deal. The real problem is teams like Philly and Phoenix putting forth no effort to field a competitive team. The changes should help prevent that, although I don't think they went far enough.

So, Bobster, you're telling me that even with the worst record, the 4th pick is our single largest percentage chance to get?!

Superbone wrote:So, Bobster, you're telling me that even with the worst record, the 4th pick is our single largest percentage chance to get?!

All top 4 teams have #4 as their single largest percentage I believe

Superbone wrote:So, Bobster, you're telling me that even with the worst record, the 4th pick is our single largest percentage chance to get?!

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

This chart helps a lot.

JCSunsfan wrote:

Superbone wrote:So, Bobster, you're telling me that even with the worst record, the 4th pick is our single largest percentage chance to get?!

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

This chart helps a lot.

It does. Thank you. It's more like the leftovers if we don't get one of the top 3.

Atlanta loses to Minnesota, and Memphis defeats Portland.

Superbone wrote:

JCSunsfan wrote:

Superbone wrote:So, Bobster, you're telling me that even with the worst record, the 4th pick is our single largest percentage chance to get?!

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

This chart helps a lot.

It does. Thank you. It's more like the leftovers if we don't get one of the top 3.

Agree. I’m very excited top 2, still happy with 3rd, and anything else I’ll be absolutely crushed.

It‘s the Suns!

Hope for the best (#1) expect the worst (#4).

The odds for each pick are:

#1 - 25.0%
#2 - 21.5%
#3 - 17.7%
#4 - 35.8%

But I prefer to look at cumulative odds in a situation like this. These are the odds that we'll get a certain pick or better. When you look at it that way, it's less scary.

#1 - 25.0%
#1-2 - 46.5%
#1-3 - 64.2%
#1-4 - 100%

After last night's games -

Suns Pre-Lottery Draft Position -

1 - 90.4% [Memphis 5.0%, Atlanta 4.5%]
2 - 7.8%
3 - 3.7%
4 - 0.2%
5 - 0.0%

Suns Post-Lottery Draft Position -

1 - 24.5 [Memphis 17.8%, Atlanta 16.3%, Orlando 10.0%]
2 - 21.7
3 - 18.3
4 - 34.0
5 - 1.4
6 - 0.1

Suns Post-Lottery Cumulative Draft Position -

1 - 24.5 [Memphis 17.8%, Atlanta 16.3%, Orlando 10.0%]
1-2 - 46.2 [Memphis 34.8%, Atlanta 32.5%, Orlando 20.9%]
1-3 - 64.5 [Memphis 50.6%, Atlanta 47.1%, Orlando 31.8%]
1-4 - 98.5 [Memphis 75.0%, Atlanta 74.9%, Orlando 37.2%]
1-5 - 99.9
1-6 - 100.0%

I never thought we'd actually beat out Memphis, but it looks like we have. We've got 6 games left and we'd have to go 2-4 to even tie Memphis or Atlanta and that's assuming they go 0-7. Of our 6 games, we play 3 against Golden State/Houston. So we'd have to go 2-1 against Dallas/Sacramento/New Orleans. Possible, but not likely.

Warriors still have 4 allstars out injured and are comfortable enough in 2nd place to drop a few more games. They recently lost to the Kings. We might steal one from them.

O_Gardino wrote:Warriors still have 4 allstars out injured and are comfortable enough in 2nd place to drop a few more games. They recently lost to the Kings. We might steal one from them.

Durant is supposed to be back tonight I heard. I know Curry is out until round 2, but you gotta think Klay and Dray will come back before the playoffs. You don't want them to be rusty starting a series with Curry already out.

Without Booker, I doubt we beat even the Warriors B squad.

Memphis and Atlanta lost tonight.

I find myself actually hoping the Lakers beat Milwaukee tonight. It makes me feel so dirty.

Atlanta ends up winning against the Magic which is good for us. Unfortunately Washington decided to lose to Chicago.