Phx-Suns.Net

Ok, let’s say for a minute we want to bring back the big 4. If we do that, we don’t even get the TPMLE as we’d be over the 2nd apron. You’d have to get creative and there is a way still to open up the full MLE and BAE. It does involve the aforementioned waive and re-sign at the minimum of CP3. Then you have to waive and stretch Shamet. Because of his contract you can actually stretch it over 7 years and you’d only be charged about 1.4 million per year. You could then split the MLE between two guys and use most of the BAE(3.7 million instead of 4.2). You could also use the full BAE and cut a little from the MLE. Then bring back Jock and Okogie on minimum deals, sign 2 more vet min guys(or 1 if you keep Ish), and then fill the last 3 spots with rookies.

Let’s say:
MLE spot 1: DiVencenzo
MLE spot 2: Jalen McDaniels
BAE: Shake Milton
Vet min: JaMychal Green

Pg: CP3, Payne, Milton
Sg: Booker, DiVencenzo, Rookie
Sf: McDaniels, Okogie, Rookie
Pf: Durant, Green, Ish
C: Ayton, Landale, Rookie

Are you sure the new CBA stuff will be relevant this summer? They haven’t even signed the deal yet.

Not sure, but the 1st apron stuff is relevant as that’s been the rule.

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 9:47 am

I'm sorry but these "waive and re-sign CP3 at the minimum" plans are total pipe dreams. There's just no way a guy comes back to a team on a minimum contract after the team just waived him. If your workplace fired you and then offered to re-hire you at minimum wage, for the good of the company/team, would you do it?

I don’t even want CP3 at the minimum. I’d love to get rid of coach Paul

I don't believe Paul is gonna have the same stroke now with Monty gone.

Can we snag Dosunmu as a bench guard?

TOO wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:47 pm

I don't believe Paul is gonna have the same stroke now with him gone.

I like
That better

TOO wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 4:47 pm

I don't believe Paul is gonna have the same stroke now with Monty gone.

CP3 was a great boost to the Suns, but his shelf life has expired.
We all saw what happened when the Suns hung on to Steve Nash too long.
Same was true to a lesser extent with Alvan Adams years ago.

When ship changes course, all bills are paid, no regrets. Move on ...

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 8:02 am

I want nothing to do with Marvin Bagley. Maybe he’d be fine enough from Nov-March, but I can’t trust him in real games that matter.

Better off just avoiding that kind of guy all together.

The proposal was to trade Shamet for him; I don't see why you wouldn't do that. I also think your too quick to declare that a certain player can't contribute in the playoffs. I mean, Austin Croshere lit up the Lakers in the NBA Finals; Tyronn Lue played game-changing defense against Iverson in the finals; John Paxson ended the Suns season after averaging 4.2 ppg during the season. Mario Elie came out of the CBA and now lives in infamy in Suns playoff history. You had to course correct after declaring Rui unworthy of playoff basketball.

And by no means am I a Bagley fan; I just don't understand why you summarily dismiss so many guys as not being able to play in the playoffs.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:47 am

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 8:50 am

It frees up 12 million and allows us to use the full MLE which I split between 2 players. Then also the BAE. With Ayton you can maybe get 1 of those guys. So the trade(in addition to lowering CP3’s money) added 2 depth pieces.

Waiving CP3 gets you the full MLE. You don't have to trade Ayton for less salary.

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 8:50 am

And Turner was better last year than Ayton, so not really a downgrade for us. Maybe Ayton will play better for Indy, but I think Turner makes more sense. Better rim protector and better shooter. Played with Vogel in Indy as well.

You're going from 18/10 to 18/7.5.

That's an overly simplistic comparison that of course is skewed in Ayton's favor. If you're truly trying to analyze the two players, you can't ignore Turner's stretch ability and rim protection.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:47 am

But that was a career year for Turner--it's more likely he regresses back to his career averages...

Very valid point. Turner has been injury-prone and had his own struggles with consistency. So it certainly isn't guaranteed he continues playing like he did last season. Then again, Turner ultimately is a $20 million gamble; Ayton is a max-level gamble. Non-Ayton-fans, and just an objective person in general, could reasonably see value in gambling on Turner continuing his play over gambling on Ayton flourishing (to the point of justifying his salary) under a new coach.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 10:47 am

People are forgetting how good Ayton was for most of the season. After a slow start, from mid-November until March 1 (when KD played his first game as a Sun), Ayton averaged 20 and 11 on 60% FG.

Ayton was awesome in February. January was good, but December was pretty up-and-down. That still is too shaky, especially when you don't ignore his bad start.

INFORMER wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 9:57 pm

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 8:02 am

I want nothing to do with Marvin Bagley. Maybe he’d be fine enough from Nov-March, but I can’t trust him in real games that matter.

Better off just avoiding that kind of guy all together.

The proposal was to trade Shamet for him; I don't see why you wouldn't do that. I also think your too quick to declare that a certain player can't contribute in the playoffs. I mean, Austin Croshere lit up the Lakers in the NBA Finals; Tyronn Lue played game-changing defense against Iverson in the finals; John Paxson ended the Suns season after averaging 4.2 ppg during the season. Mario Elie came out of the CBA and now lives in infamy in Suns playoff history. You had to course correct after declaring Rui unworthy of playoff basketball.

And by no means am I a Bagley fan; I just don't understand why you summarily dismiss so many guys as not being able to play in the playoffs.

There's a much longer list of guys who didn't come through in the playoffs. I'd just rather another team take the desperate risk to find out before the Suns.

You're right about the Shamet part, I overlooked that.

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 1:46 pm

Hmm, I’d be curious to see your numbers. I can’t get it to work. And I thought the apron was 169 million:

KD: 47,654,833
Book: 36,016,200
Ayton: 32,459,438
CP3: 17,800,000
MLE: 12,200,000
Shamet: 10,250,000
Payne: 6,500,000
Ish: 1,997,238

That’s 164,877,709 and only 8 players. You can’t fit 7 more guys in the 5,000,000 left before the hard cap.

If you waive Payne(only 2,000,000 guaranteed) and replace him with a vet min guy, that puts you at 162,374,947 and gives you about 7 million for 7 guys. If you stretch the Payne contract it gives you another 1.2 million to work with and then if you fill the roster with rookie min contracts it’s doable. But we don’t want 7 rookies on the team.

It’s just not feasible without another cost cutting move.

You said you would sign two players with the MLE and you only have to have 14 on the roster. So even with your numbers, if you don't keep Ish you would have about $6.1M for 6 players (rookie mins but could be doable).

The $169 million apron is based on the last official estimate from the league (from last summer/fall), but it's going to be higher than that (my guess is somewhere around $171.5M). Of course the higher cap raises the MLE slightly also ($12.4M).

So here's what I've got:

Durant: 47,649,433
Booker: 36,016,200
Ayton: 32,459,438
Paul: 17,600,000
MLE (two players): 12,404,425
Shamet: 10,250,000
Payne: 6,500,000

I wasn't including Ish's team option. So that's 8 players at around $162,879,496. To reach the minimum 14-man roster, you add:

Vet min: 1,800,000
Vet min: 1,800,000
Rookie min: 1,000,000
Rookie min: 1,000,000
Rookie min: 1,000,000
Rookie min: 1,000,000

(Approximate numbers.)

So now we have 14 players for $170,479,496. If the apron is around $171.5M you can add a 15th player or you could have only 3 rookie mininums or you could even have 5 rookie minimums and turn that 9th player into a $3.6M BAE signing.

No stretching required.

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Jun 03, 2023 3:44 pm

Ok, let’s say for a minute we want to bring back the big 4. If we do that, we don’t even get the TPMLE as we’d be over the 2nd apron.

Even keeping Paul at his full salary ($30.8M) and all of our 6 players under contract, we would be able to stay below the second apron while using the TPMLE (even if you're counting on only $162M for the luxury tax level). We would be at about $178M total.

You’d have to sign 6 or 7 rookies to rookie min contracts…that’s just not going to happen. Also it’s not smart. Even 4 isn’t very smart. I hope you’re right that the 1st apron ends up at 171 or higher

I agree that 6 or 7 rookie mins is not smart. But I would do 3-5 if it meant I could add depth to the top 9 to 11 players. But if I couldn't trade Shamet then I would probably stretch him anyway.

We’ll see what happens..I just prefer more flexibility…and bringing back everyone does not give us much.

Split T wrote: ↑

Sun Jun 04, 2023 4:00 pm

We’ll see what happens..I just prefer more flexibility…and bringing back everyone does not give us much.

Obviously I want to keep Ayton, but my first preference with Paul would be to trade him. Second would be waive and re-sign (but I think that's highly unlikely). Third would be keep him at his full salary. But if you can't trade him and can't/don't keep him, then obviously you might as well stretch him.

Priorities:
1. Manage the Paul / Starting Point Situation...Chris' is not getting younger and his salary contributes to locking up options. If you can negotiate something like a 3 yr/$5M to strengthen the bench, I'm for it...it would be best for him AND the team. His pride might not allow it, but it would aid in putting him in a position where he can be a strong contributor to the team potentially winning a title. It not...we need to make a change and we need to strengthen the position. In my eyes, this is our biggest issue.
2. Ayton...trade or not, this one is a dice throw to some degree. If Vogel is able to light a fire and we see play where he averages 5-6 FTs a game, then keep him...if not/thinks he can't then they have to leverage his salary and trade for a solid replacement and try to build up the bench.
3. Bench depth...deep six Shamet...financial savings on Paul...other...mess...unpredictable as to all the options at the moment.

It's hard to fill out a team when your top four guys make $47m, $37m, $32m, and $30m. That's basically the whole cap. These proposed depth charts here in this thread are mostly, top 4, retain a few of our bench guys, and then 6-7 roster spots worth of "???" or "TPMLE". I'm concerned.

Ya it’s gonna be tough…that’s why you can’t just keep Ayton and CP3 at their deals. CP3 you maybe can alter his contract…with Ayton you either got to pay him or move him.

Would be great if KD reworked his deal too