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Now personally I don't much care what these betting / predicting markets say. If they think Trump is gonna win or Kamala or whomever, great, but they aren't polls and they are just people putting money up on gambling.

Most bookies don't make lines without tons of information, so I'd guess they are probably about as accurate as they can be.


They had Shapiro as the VP favorite early and I still think he's in the lead.

TOO wrote: ↑

Thu Aug 01, 2024 3:07 pm

Most bookies don't make lines without tons of information, so I'd guess they are probably about as accurate as they can be.


They had Shapiro as the VP favorite early and I still think he's in the lead.

These aren’t “bookies” making the lines. It’s a market where players bet against each other and they set the odds. In a sense, the odds reflect a sort of communal consensus.

At least, that’s how it works in theory. These implementations of the markets are inefficient in a number of ways, and the markets are small enough that a single large bettor could drastically affect the odds.

I do think the fluctuations in those betting markets reflect something; they reflect what the people who participate in them think will happen. And those people have put money at stake in the outcome, so they care about getting it right. If more and more of them start betting one side, it means they're seeing something they like about that side.

But it isn't a direct indicator of anything, only indirect. Correlated maybe but not causal nor a direct measurement. Polling, though imperfect, that is direct. Plus, these markets change quickly. If Kamala laughs funny tomorrow she could drop a bunch on there.

Rasmussen has put out a new poll that has Kamala +5 in a general election vote. Rasmussen isn't my favorite pollster but this does represent a 7% swing toward Harris over their prior polling.

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Fri Aug 02, 2024 10:29 am

Rasmussen has put out a new poll that has Kamala +5 in a general election vote. Rasmussen isn't my favorite pollster but this does represent a 7% swing toward Harris over their prior polling.

This is a pretty big indicator. Rasmussen usually skews pro-Trump.

Starting to get into "Trump is getting his ass kicked" territory. We'll see if Kamala can keep it up.

Way too much time left for bad things to happen.

Nodack wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 03, 2024 12:01 am

Way too much time left for bad things to happen.

Oh, not saying it is an outcome yet, just that right now she's piling it on. Gotta build that big lead just in case, we saw what happened to Hillary

I wanted to post a clarification about these Rasmussen numbers. These numbers apparently come from Mr. Scott Rasmussen and his new polling research company, which is NOT the same as Rasmussen Polls, the company originally founded by Mr. Rasmussen but then he sold it. The latter still does skew heavily toward Trump/GOP and would not agree with these numbers. A bit confusing.

Donald Trump has said he won't go to the originally agreed-upon debate in Sep moderated by ABC News. Instead, he has counter-proposed to have a debate hosted by Fox News with a live crowd. Presumably this would be a much friendlier environment for him and more of a lion's den for Harris. Personally I don't think she should agree to such a debate; why give Fox the chance to stack the deck against her? However, much of the media is framing this as if Trump and Fox have "agreed" to the new debate and that now it's up to Kamala. Trump has put her on her heels a little bit.

He's trying to trap her. Do it on his terms. He's a MF bully.

Kamala responds. I think this is the right call. Don't give in to his biased renegotiation of the debate terms. He wants to hold a Trump rally (with Kamala as a jeered guest) rather than a debate. Call this out for the cowardly act it is.

I remain of the opinion that Democrats shouldn't go on Fox News, shouldn't do interviews with them, shouldn't take questions from them. They are not a news network; they are a Republican propaganda network. Don't dignify them nor give them material to spew more hate and disinformation at you.

Suck eggs Donny. Nobody wants to watch Fox slobber all over your big orange ass.

Time for MAGA to flip this into "Indian failure border czar childless DEI hire Kamala running scared afraid to debate!"

Kamala has been much better than Biden at punching and counter punching.

Trump ordered the GOP to stand down on any border deal with Biden and they obeyed.

Trump took credit along with Republicans for trying to ban abortion outright everywhere.

All the stances he took that have reversed thanks to wealthy donors donations.

Those are the things she needs to hammer home.

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 03, 2024 9:16 am

Kamala responds. I think this is the right call. Don't give in to his biased renegotiation of the debate terms. He wants to hold a Trump rally (with Kamala as a jeered guest) rather than a debate. Call this out for the cowardly act it is.

I remain of the opinion that Democrats shouldn't go on Fox News, shouldn't do interviews with them, shouldn't take questions from them. They are not a news network; they are a Republican propaganda network. Don't dignify them nor give them material to spew more hate and disinformation at you.

In a perfect world.

Have Chris Wallace mediate from fox…. Oh wait.

New CBS News poll has Kamala at +1 nationally. I don't know that this tells us much, though it is an improvement over where Biden was. I especially roll my eyes at these very general questions about "what do you think each candidate is good at?" Who cares; are you gonna vote for them or not?

Trump will only debate her if it’s on FOX with a loud Maga crowd in attendance. So brave.

RFK is a loon, exhibit #247489437.