Phx-Suns.Net

So, we'll know EOD tomorrow who we're playing in the first round, correct?

Superbone wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 3:57 pm

So, we'll know EOD tomorrow who we're playing in the first round, correct?

All of the games are early tomorrow - every team is playing, with all the East home games starting at 1:00ET and all the West home games at 3:30. We'll know by fairly early in the afternoon.

With today's games already over, quite a few possibilities have already been eliminated. Maybe the biggest takeaway is that, with the Clippers win today, they (and we) essentially control their destiny: Every scenario where the Clips win tomorrow's game, they're the 5 seed and play the Suns in the first round. There are also two possibilities where the Suns win but the Clips end up fifth anyways: in both of those, Golden State loses to Portland and Minnesota beats New Orleans. Suns/Clips is by far the most likely outcome.

If Phoenix beats LA and Golden State wins at Portland, Golden State gets fifth regardless of the other games. Finally, there's a narrow path for New Orleans to get to fifth as well: Phoenix Wins, Golden State Loses, and the Pelicans beat Minnesota.

The Lakers can't get to fifth anymore, so if anybody was hoping for KD/LeBron in the first round, that's no longer a possibility. The Lakers could finish sixth (only if Golden State loses), seventh, or (most likely case) eighth. Whoever loses tomorrow between Minnesota and New Orleans will be locked into ninth; OKC is already in at 10th.

Edit: I take it back - the Lakers' most likely case really is seventh. Almost every scenario where they finish eighth involves them losing to Utah tomorrow, and while that's certainly possible, the game means far more to the Lakers than it does to the Jazz.

I think it really comes down to whether we beat Clips or not. Warriors won’t lose to Portland, they risk dropping to 8th if they do. If they win they are at worst 6th. And Portland doesn’t want to win. Right now they have the 5th best lotto odds to themselves, if they win they’d be in a 3-way tie.

I also think the Clippers will want to win. If they lose they also will risk falling into the play-in. The only way I see the Clips wanting to lose is if they see at halftime that Minny is up big on New Orleans. But that seems to risky and cutting it to close to pull off.

My best guess is suns sit their starters or play them only in the 1st half. Clips win. GS wins. Lakers win. That locks in those teams at:

5 Clips
6 Warriors
7 Lakers

Then the winner of NOP gets 8 and loser gets 9.

For reference, the Vegas lines are as follows:

Clippers (-13) over Suns
Warriors (-17) over Blazers
Lakers (-16.5) over Jazz

Wolves(-3.5) over Pels

So Vegas does not expect Phoenix, Utah, or Portland to try.

Ya clippers it is:

I'm expecting the Clippers matchup to be a bad series for Ayton.

Why do you say that? He did pretty well against them last time.

The clippers have more depth than us, but their top end talent is lacking without PG. They are relying a lot on Westbrook.

They go 10 deep with:

Westbrook, Gordon, Kawhi, Batum, Zubac
Hyland, Powell, Mann, Covington, Plumlee

I think you go small on them if they try to play Plumlee. I think they have bodies to throw at KD, but not really at Book. Mann defended him last time and didn’t do great.

I think they’ll have to hit a lot of 3s to beat us. Gordon and Batum will hit them…just gotta keep the others from doing it. I’d try to make Westbrook beat us.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:48 pm

I'm expecting the Clippers matchup to be a bad series for Ayton.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 14, 2022 2:15 am

I'd rather face the Clippers. The Suns have several matchup advantages against them.

The Pels on the other hand.. Jonas generally eats Ayton's lunch and they have two elite scorers. They also tend to run more complex offensive sets while the Clippers lean on more isolation, drive and kick 3's.

Split T wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:58 pm

Why do you say that? He did pretty well against them last time.

I'm not putting much thought into that series two years ago. The Clippers didn't really even play a backup Center.

I should've been more specific. When I said "bad" I really meant underwhelming. He'll get his 16/10, but we'll also see Zubac and Plumlee do approximately the same thing for the Clippers.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 12:11 am

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 10:48 pm

I'm expecting the Clippers matchup to be a bad series for Ayton.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 14, 2022 2:15 am

I'd rather face the Clippers. The Suns have several matchup advantages against them.

The Pels on the other hand.. Jonas generally eats Ayton's lunch and they have two elite scorers. They also tend to run more complex offensive sets while the Clippers lean on more isolation, drive and kick 3's.

Nice one. Glad to see you're still hanging around.

Welcome back Jeremy

Thanks guys. I just didn’t have the time/energy to be on here the last couple months, due to a combination of life getting super busy and still dealing with some health issues. Thankfully it was mostly the life getting busy part.

Looking forward to a (hopefully) long playoff run!

bajanguy008 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 3:41 pm

Can't read this but Ok

I can only imagine how dominant he thinks he's been this year.

TOO wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 9:24 am

bajanguy008 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 3:41 pm

Can't read this but Ok

I can only imagine how dominant he thinks he's been this year.

See my quote. He's a legend in his own mind. I hope we get playoff Ayton back from our Finals run but I'm not holding my breath. The stage is set for him. Now he just needs to do it.

Thread on what looks like will be our go to play when we need a bucket:

You guys think Paul George will be back for the first round of the playoffs?

Superbone wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 10:08 am

TOO wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 9:24 am

bajanguy008 wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 08, 2023 3:41 pm

Can't read this but Ok

I can only imagine how dominant he thinks he's been this year.

See my quote. He's a legend in his own mind. I hope we get playoff Ayton back from our Finals run but I'm not holding my breath. The stage is set for him. Now he just needs to do it.

That quote is taken so out of context.

Superbone wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 11:53 am

You guys think Paul George will be back for the first round of the playoffs?

Nope, not even if it goes 7 games.

Superbone wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 11:53 am

You guys think Paul George will be back for the first round of the playoffs?

The Clippers are notorious for vague non-updates but I think it’s highly unlikely.

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 09, 2023 12:29 pm

That quote is taken so out of context.

Explain? Most of us don't have a subscription to the site or paper.