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More swing state polling. Harris is now up by 4 in some of the most important rust belt / "blue wall" states. If she takes these, she wins the election.

Here's also some AZ polling on Kamala/Trump and the AZ Senate race. The tweet doesn't give a source for its numbers; it comes from The HighGround Public Affairs survey as described in the link below.




https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4 ... nd-survey/

Harris opens up a 51.2%-46.3% lead over Trump on Polymarket.

Michelle Obama is up to 1.5%.

Cap wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 10, 2024 7:58 am

Harris opens up a 51.2%-46.3% lead over Trump on Polymarket.

Michelle Obama is up to 1.5%.

I don't know what those degenerate gamblers are thinking putting money on Michelle Obama. I'd put my life savings on her never ever running for President.

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 10, 2024 8:20 am

Cap wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 10, 2024 7:58 am

Harris opens up a 51.2%-46.3% lead over Trump on Polymarket.

Michelle Obama is up to 1.5%.

I don't know what those degenerate gamblers are thinking putting money on Michelle Obama. I'd put my life savings on her never ever running for President.

Still trying to bounce back from losing the Biden ballot bet? I think someone might have a gambling problem j/k

Gimme $20 on Hillary Clinton to win it all!

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:00 am

Gimme $20 on Hillary Clinton to win it all!

Attaboy!

Kryptonic wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:19 am

Mori Chu wrote: ↑

Sat Aug 10, 2024 11:00 am

Gimme $20 on Hillary Clinton to win it all!

Attaboy!

Over seven million shares of Kanye have traded hands?

Another poll from North Carolina. If these numbers are accurate and Trump is just tied there, he is in big big trouble. Usual poll disclaimer.

This poll from Trafalgar has Trump still up in the swing states.

Trafalgar historically skews Trump but a good data point

virtual9mm wrote: ↑

Mon Aug 12, 2024 2:14 am

Trafalgar historically skews Trump but a good data point

This is true; they are consistently many points further toward Trump than other polls. Their claim to fame is being fairly accurate in 2016 (I think it was?) in predicting Trump's victory. But they haven't been as accurate in 2022 and this cycle.

More swing state polls.

More discussion of the latest swing state polls, which look strong for Harris.

New state of poll for PA from Quinnipiac. Harris doing well in this one.

Harris has opened up an 8.6¢ lead on Trump on Polymarket. Just 91.4¢ to go!

Harris margins in swing state, according to Nate Silver:

+5.1 VA
+3.9 MI
+3.9 WI
+2.3 PA
+1.3 AZ
+0.9 NV
-0.6 GA
-0.6 NC
-4.7 FL

IINM, PA is the tipping point state.

Yeah, I was right. PA is the tipping point state by exact count. If Harris wins PA and all the states above it, that’s 270 exactly.

Basically, she has to win MI, WI, and PA.

There are few other paths to victory. If she wins AZ, she can miss on WI. If she wins AZ, NV and WI, she can miss on MI or PA.

Look at cap going all Steve kornacki on us

More polling numbers, these ones about senate races in swing states.