Phx-Suns.Net

That's good to hear. I really like Valentine

Just take him at 13.

I can get on board with Denzel at 21-22. Think their are better prospects at 13. The Knees are a concern...

Still I think if we got him in the 20s it would have to be considered a win. Not much risk there.

Trades where one team give up multiple picks to move up and get a single pick rarely work out for the teams giving up the multiple picks. Recent example - Jazz trade 2 picks to move up and pick Trey Burke, the picks turn in to Shabazz M. and Dieng, both of whom turned out to be better players than Burke.

Who I want us to draft is in my sig.
Who do I think we'll draft based off reports/smokescreens/workouts

4: Chriss
13: Sabonis (I'm gonna say he's still there) If not don't be surprised at a trade back to the lower teens and then drafting Valentine
28: Traded If they keep it Damian Jones.

Yup 2 PF's and a C. I think you'll see atleast one trade from us tomorrow night

Comparing Chad Ford's tiers to how the actual draft went:


Tier 1: Potential Franchise Players
1. Ben Simmons, F, LSU

Tier 2: Potential All-Stars
2. Brandon Ingram, F, Duke

Tier 3: NBA Starters
3. Jaylen Brown, F, Cal
4. Dragan Bender, PF, Croatia
5. Kris Dunn, PG, Providence
7. Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky
8. Marquese Chriss, PF, Washington

Tier 4: High-Level Rotation Players
6. Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
9. Jakob Poeltl, C, Utah
11. Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga
18. Henry Ellenson, F/C, Marquette
26. Furkan Korkmaz, SG, Turkey
28. Skal Labissiere, F/C, Kentucky
29. Dejounte Murray, PG, Washington

Tier 5: Solid Role Players
10. Thon Maker, F, Australia
12. Taurean Prince, F, Baylor
14. Denzel Valentine, G/F, Michigan State
15. Juan Hernangomez, PF, Spain
17. Wade Baldwin IV, G, Vanderbilt
19. Malik Beasley, SG, Florida State
21. DeAndre Bembry, G/F, St. Joseph's
22. Malachi Richardson, SG, Syracuse
23. Ante Zizic, C, Croatia
24. Timothe Luwawu, G/F, France
25. Brice Johnson, PF, North Carolina
30. Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt
31. Deyonta Davis, PF, Michigan State
32. Ivica Zubac, C, Bosnia
33. Cheick Diallo, PF, Kansas
34. Tyler Ulis, PG, Kentucky
36. Malcolm Brogdon, G/F, Virginia
38. Patrick McCaw, G/F, UNLV
40. Diamond Stone, C, Maryland
45. Demetrius Jackson, PG, Notre Dame
51. Ben Bentil, F, Providence

Tier 6: Fringe Players
16. Guerschon Yabusele, PF, France
20. Caris LeVert, G/F, Michigan
37. Chinanu Onuaku, C, Louisville
41. Stephen Zimmerman, C, UNLV
43. Zhou Qi, C, China
59. Isaiah Cousins, G, Oklahoma
U. Gary Payton II, PG, Oregon State
U. Jarrod Uthoff, F, Iowa

Highly drafted players not listed in a tier
13. Georgios Papagiannis
27. Pascal Siakam
35. Rade Zagorac
39. David Michineau
42. Isaiah Whitehead
44. Isaia Cordinier

Largely if not quite entirely accurate, with a few exceptions. R^2 of about 0.7 eyeballing it.

The top three tiers are very accurate, with those seven players going in the top eight picks.

Things get dicey with Tier 4. These players were projected to go 8-14. The survey overestimated Ellenson and drastically overestimated Korkmaz, Skal and D. Murray.

Tier 5 is fairly accurate. Prospects in this tier were projected to go in the 15-35 range and most did or close to it.

Tier 6 prospects were projected to go 36-43. Yabusele and LaVert went much higher at 16 and 20. Cousins, Payton and Uthoff disappointed.

Highly drafted players not listed in a tier
13. Georgios Papagiannis

Ladies and Gentlemen, your Sacramento Kings!

A high residual on that outlier for sure.

Remind me what the tiers were again, please. IIRC, they were "What is this guy's ceiling", not "how good will he actually be." Big difference for many of those guys in tier 4 and later who may not be NBA players at all. But they might be good!

10, 12, and 13 really shook up the draft. Well, I guess we knew about 10 ahead of time, but I still think it's a big reach.

To make sense of all this, I've established a tiered draft ranking system of the kind employed by NBA teams.

Teams group players based on overall talent and potential. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on need.

After talking to several GMs and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how the tiers look this year.

More at http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/rating-sim ... d=39934973 .

(I copy-pasted the lists from another forum. I'm not sure where the names of the tiers came from; they don't appear to be present in Ford's original article.)