2024 Election

[JeremyG]

Look who eats cats!

[virtual9mm]

I liked this analysis of the debate. I think Kamala basically KOed Trump. He seemed angry, negative, rambling, offering very little by way of ideas or policy. She seemed sharp, prepared, and she repeatedly got under his skin. A resounding victory.

So, a pillar of thr liberal establishment thought that Kamala did well. It doesn't mean a thing...

[virtual9mm]

...but assuming that these voters are truly representative...this does.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... oter-poll/

[virtual9mm]

...but assuming that these voters are truly representative...this does.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/election ... oter-poll/

...and other trackers of swing voters are actually showing movement away from Harris. So, the real answer is that we just don't know, and won't know until we get some fresh, large-scale polling.

[The Bobster]

I am just happy to hear that his healthcare plan will be here soon.

[TOO]

There is no swaying Trump voters, they will ride with that man no matter what, he could kill a baby on live tv and they'd still say it was rigged and that baby had it coming.

[Kryptonic]

There is no swaying Trump voters, they will ride with that man no matter what, he could kill a baby on live tv and they'd still say it was rigged and that baby had it coming.

I just wish they’d understand that it’s ok to have conservative views and that it’s the man they picked and endorsed that many loathe. Had they ran Chris Christy, kinzinger or Cheney I could have been swayed the other way. I like people with integrity and empathy. Two characteristics trump will never have.

[Mori Chu]

It would be good for the country for Trump to be gone and for Republicans to try to go back to being a sane regular conservative political party again. Preferably with a bit more civility and willingness to work across the aisle to achieve bipartisan goals. Trump has pulled them in a bad direction that I cannot support, but I don't hate what the Republican party used to be.

[Mori Chu]

No need to do a second debate, guys, since Trump won so handily. Many people are saying so. Tears in their eyes.

[Mori Chu]

Here's the (conservative) National Review's recap of the debate.

[Cap]

Harris’s endorsements: Everyone who has ever worked for Trump and been called “only the best people” by him.

Trump’s endorsements: Hulk Hogan, Scott Baio, Kevin Sorbo

Yet, unbelievably, it’s neck-and-neck.

[Kryptonic]

Harris’s endorsements: Everyone who has ever worked for Trump and been called “only the best people” by him.

Trump’s endorsements: Hulk Hogan, Scott Baio, Kevin Sorbo

Yet, unbelievably, it’s neck-and-neck.

you forgot Kid Rock and Ye.

[Kryptonic]

No need to do a second debate, guys, since Trump won so handily. Many people are saying so. Tears in their eyes.

The guy could sell fire to satan.

[TOO]

No need to do a second debate, guys, since Trump won so handily. Many people are saying so. Tears in their eyes.

The guy could sell fire to satan.

Can you sell things to yourself?

[Mori Chu]

Here's an NPR analysis of the debate.

[Mori Chu]

New YouGov poll.

[Mori Chu]

New Ipsos poll.

[Mori Chu]

New PA polling. Harris up since the debate.

[Cap]

New PA polling. Harris up since the debate.

Oh boy, a 3 point lead with 5 undecided. Forgive me if I don’t ejaculate.

[Cap]

538 gives Harris a 61% chance and Trump a 39% chance. However, I believe they are significantly overestimating Harris’s chances.

Their model uses polls and economic fundamentals. Good economic fundamentals are supposed to be good for the incumbent party.

What I suspect their model cannot account for is the huge gulf that currently exists between the actual state of the economy and its perceived state. People don’t vote based on the actual state of the economy, they vote based on their perceptions. Normally the perception and the reality correlate pretty well, so the economic indicators are a good measure of perception. However, this year is an outlier.