2025 Play-In Watch (Insert Vince Carter, It’s Over, meme)

[Split T]

Ya we might need 5 more still, let’s be safe and win 7

[Cap]

As a NBA fan, if you weren’t a fan of either team, would you rather see the Suns or Mavs in the play in?

The vote would probably be something like

2 Suns
3 Mavs
95 Who the hell cares?

[Split T]

I mean, sure, but that might be the case with any team fighting for the 10th seed. Most nba fans probably don’t care about teams other than their own.

[Cap]

Except teams that make them care. It’s hard to do that from the 10-11 seed, and neither the Suns nor Mavs are doing it now.

If we’d made the playoffs in the bubble, people would have cared. What a story that would have been.

[Split T]

I just don’t know why that matters at all

[Mori Chu]

I still don't think we are going to make the play-in. We are in that brutal 10-game stretch and I think we're unlikely to get enough wins out of it. We did have a great win against Cleveland, but I don't think it is going to hold against so many other good opponents.

[Split T]

How many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.

We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.

I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?

We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.

[Carno]

How many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.

We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.

I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?

We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.

I'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.

The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?

It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.

[Cap]

Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.

[Split T]

How many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.

We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.

I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?

We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.

I'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.

The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?

It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.

Ya, key is continuing to play like they have the last few. They aren’t winning 3 of the next 9 if they revert back.

[Split T]

Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.

That doesn’t surprise me…it’s assuming we continue to play like we have done all season…the key is whether or not you believe the last 5ish games is real or a mirage. If it’s a mirage, they probably go 3-8 and finish 11 or 12..if it’s real they might go 6-5 and have a shot at 10 or even 9.

[Cap]

Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.

That doesn’t surprise me…it’s assuming we continue to play like we have done all season…the key is whether or not you believe the last 5ish games is real or a mirage. If it’s a mirage, they probably go 3-8 and finish 11 or 12..if it’s real they might go 6-5 and have a shot at 10 or even 9.

Draft Kings has us at +600 to make the playoffs, which is considerably better than 5%; it’s more like 13%.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/nba-p ... e-playoffs


They also have us at -225 to make the play in, which implies odds of about 67%, much better than BR’s 29.8%.
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/nba-p ... in-play-in

[Split T]

Playoffs or play-in? It does have us with better odds than Dallas(they are +2000), but worse than Sacramento.

[Cap]

Playoffs or play-in? It does have us with better odds than Dallas(they are +2000), but worse than Sacramento.

First is playoffs, second is play in. Implicit odds of about 13%/67% compared to BR’s 5%/30%.

Of course Sacto has better odds than we do to make the playoffs; their play in ticket is pretty much punched.

[specialsauce]

How many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.

We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.

I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?

We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.

I'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.

The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?

It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.

Ya, key is continuing to play like they have the last few. They aren’t winning 3 of the next 9 if they revert back.

This has more to do with WHO we play (the rotation we put out) over HOW we play.

We're playing well because we play with energy and are playing a switch D, and book and KD are taking the majority of the shots.

If we trot out Plumlee, Beal or Allen.....we will immediately revert back. We're playing the way we're playing not just WITH but directly BECAUSE of Oso, Dunn, and CG

[Superbone]

Basketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.

I assume that doesn't factor in their last 3 game resurgence in play level?

ETA: Having read your follow up post, that appears to be the case.

[Superbone]

How many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.

We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.

I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?

We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.

I'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.

The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?

It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.

Ya, key is continuing to play like they have the last few. They aren’t winning 3 of the next 9 if they revert back.

This has more to do with WHO we play (the rotation we put out) over HOW we play.

We're playing well because we play with energy and are playing a switch D, and book and KD are taking the majority of the shots.

If we trot out Plumlee, Beal or Allen.....we will immediately revert back. We're playing the way we're playing not just WITH but directly BECAUSE of Oso, Dunn, and CG

It will be interesting to see what Bud does as those guys come back. It seems to have been a silver lining for them to have missed these recent games.

[Split T]

Grayson looks to be back tomorrow…so we’ll see…No Dame for Portland should help

[Split T]

Not great for our play-in chances

[Kryptonic]

Not great for our play-in chances

Saw that…. However he’s a glass cannon and will be hurt within a week.