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I'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 9:36 amHow many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.
We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.
I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?
We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.
Ya, key is continuing to play like they have the last few. They aren’t winning 3 of the next 9 if they revert back.Carno wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 10:00 amI'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 9:36 amHow many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.
We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.
I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?
We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.
The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?
It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.
That doesn’t surprise me…it’s assuming we continue to play like we have done all season…the key is whether or not you believe the last 5ish games is real or a mirage. If it’s a mirage, they probably go 3-8 and finish 11 or 12..if it’s real they might go 6-5 and have a shot at 10 or even 9.Cap wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 10:05 amBasketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.
Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 11:12 amThat doesn’t surprise me…it’s assuming we continue to play like we have done all season…the key is whether or not you believe the last 5ish games is real or a mirage. If it’s a mirage, they probably go 3-8 and finish 11 or 12..if it’s real they might go 6-5 and have a shot at 10 or even 9.Cap wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 10:05 amBasketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.
First is playoffs, second is play in. Implicit odds of about 13%/67% compared to BR’s 5%/30%.
This has more to do with WHO we play (the rotation we put out) over HOW we play.Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 11:10 amYa, key is continuing to play like they have the last few. They aren’t winning 3 of the next 9 if they revert back.Carno wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 10:00 amI'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 9:36 amHow many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.
We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.
I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?
We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.
The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?
It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.
I assume that doesn't factor in their last 3 game resurgence in play level?Cap wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 10:05 amBasketball Reference’s Playoff Probabilities Report gives us a 29.8% chance to make the play in and a 5.0% chance to make the playoffs.
It will be interesting to see what Bud does as those guys come back. It seems to have been a silver lining for them to have missed these recent games.specialsauce wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 12:43 pmThis has more to do with WHO we play (the rotation we put out) over HOW we play.Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 11:10 amYa, key is continuing to play like they have the last few. They aren’t winning 3 of the next 9 if they revert back.Carno wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 10:00 amI'm with you on this. I think the Suns have a good chance of making the play-in. But it won't be easy. They have to continue to play like they have been during this home stand. When they go on the road, will the rookies continue to play well? They and the team have been noticeably worse on the road.Split T wrote: ↑Sun Mar 23, 2025 9:36 amHow many games do you think Dallas wins? Kings have also been starting to nose dive.
We have the 10 seed now. Dallas is still without their best guard and their 3 best bigs. They do have some easy games coming up though.
I’m not saying we will make it, but I think chances are 60% maybe?
We are 1-0 in the brutal 10 game stretch and won one of the 4 I thought were unwinnable. 6 of the remaining 9 I think are winnable, though we likely won’t be favored. Win 3 of those, plus the 2 games against Sacramento and SA and we get to 39-43. That should do it. I don’t think Dallas has 6 wins in them.
The priority right now is to hold off the Mavs, but Sacramento is only 2 games ahead in the loss column. Unfortunately, the Kings have already won the season series. Thus, the Suns have to make up 2 games on them before win the season finale and then win the finale. Given that the Kings seem to be in tank mode, it's possible. Kings schedule is not super easy, but it's easier than the Suns. The Mavs seem to be in free fall, but what happens when (if) Street Clothes comes back, which is reported to be imminent?
It's going to be close, but it is possible. I think 60% is a good estimate IF the Suns continue to play well.
We're playing well because we play with energy and are playing a switch D, and book and KD are taking the majority of the shots.
If we trot out Plumlee, Beal or Allen.....we will immediately revert back. We're playing the way we're playing not just WITH but directly BECAUSE of Oso, Dunn, and CG