2024 Election

[Mori Chu]

Some NYT/Siena state polls that look better for Trump.

[Superbone]

Of course he's going to look better when Harris isn't on the ballot.

[Mori Chu]

North Carolina removes 747k voters (almost 10% of the electorate) from the voter rolls. Guarantee that many legal voters just got purged and will be surprised in November.

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/s/Zxa3nnleKl

[Superbone]

I don’t understand where all these new polls are coming from that now have Trump ahead in many swing states. Has it really swung that much recently? I don’t understand at all why that would be.

[TOO]

I don’t understand where all these new polls are coming from that now have Trump ahead in many swing states. Has it really swung that much recently? I don’t understand at all why that would be.

Gotta keep the chatter going.

[Mori Chu]

It seems like NYT/Siena is more red than a lot of the other polls this cycle. Not sure why. Also it seems like a lot of these polls are smallish, having a sample size of 800-1000 people at most. It's hard to know. I still think Harris is doing very well in the polling averages.

If she is dropping a bit, I would say: (1) The "hype cycle" of her candidacy is dying out a bit, along with the post-convention bounce; and (2) The Trump/Vance focus on Haitian immigrants eating cats etc., while bogus in its origins, has been vaguely effective in keeping people focused on the immigration issue which tends to be a strong one for Trump.

I think that since the economy is going strong and interest rates have dropped, in general my priors would continue to favor Kamala, especially since she's been up in the polling averages. But we still have many days left to go, and it's still a close race.

[Mori Chu]

These are pretty interesting numbers. Trump has a way higher share of Hispanic voters than he did in 2020. The GOP in general has gotten a lot higher in their Hispanic numbers over the past 8 years.

[Cap]

These are pretty interesting numbers. Trump has a way higher share of Hispanic voters than he did in 2020. The GOP in general has gotten a lot higher in their Hispanic numbers over the past 8 years.

That is fucking insane. The guy is threatening to deport Hispanics who are here legally! And he’s polling 40%? Madness.

[TOO]

There's a lot of racists in this country.

[Cap]

There's a lot of racists in this country.

Are you saying 40% of Hispanics are racist against Hispanics?

[TOO]

There's a lot of racists in this country.

Are you saying 40% of Hispanics are racist against Hispanics?

Yes. Hispanics in California are racist as hell.

[Mori Chu]

There's a bit of controversy around the upcoming Walz/Vance VP debate. CBS has announced that they won't be ready-checking the candidates. Some people prefer that but others think CBS should be more involved.

[Mori Chu]

Georgia election board sued for controversial election laws passed recently insisting on hand-count of all ballots on Election Day.

[AmareIsGod]

Harris is ‘underwater in our polling’, Michigan representative says
Democrat Elissa Slotkin worries about Harris’s chances as mail-in voting has begun in swing state Biden won in 2020

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... gan-harris

[Mori Chu]

I think she's a few percent ahead of Trump in most polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /michigan/

[Cap]

I think she's a few percent ahead of Trump in most polls.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /michigan/

An average of 1.8 is “a few”?

Trump actually won four of the last five polls, by an average of 3 points.

[Superbone]

The debate tonight should be interesting. However, I wish they had fact checking. One party lies way more than the other.

[virtual9mm]

I worry that Trump is going to win.

[Cap]

Gag.

Walz: Iraq is now closer than ever to a nuclear weapon because Trump pulled us out of the deal.
Vance: Yeah, but the development of the nuclear material happened while Harris was VP!

Later in the night, maybe he’ll blame Harris for the Afghanistan withdrawal.

[Mori Chu]

I watched most of the VP debate. I don't think it will do much to sway voters. I thought Walz was fine but clearly not a knockout debater. Vance seems polished and intelligent, and much more normal than Trump. But practically everything he says is complete BS and it's hard to stomach. I thought Walz did well on abortion and in the discussion of 1/6. Vance said a lot of awful things on immigration and Vance sort of pushed back but could have been tougher.