Around the League: Offseason

[Superbone]

George is a pretender and a phony. He finesses his agenda on to the detriment of his team. He's a decent player but he's a mental midget. I think the league is figuring him out.

Loved River's response to George's blame game. Let the adults in the room speak, George.

[Indy]

Based on my model of players with more than 1000 minutes last year, here's the top 20 players, 1 to 20.

Giannis Antetokounmpo
LeBron James
James Harden
Nikola Jokic
Kawhi Leonard
Luka Doncic
Joel Embiid
Chris Paul
Damian Lillard
Anthony Davis
Karl-Anthony Towns
Christian Wood
Rudy Gobert
Jimmy Butler
Khris Middleton
Russell Westbrook
Kyle Lowry
Jayson Tatum
Montrezl Harrell
Hassan Whiteside

Your model seems to do a pretty good job. Just a few outliers like Whiteside and Harrell. Is Wood an outlier or is it a sign of big things to come?

It's why I was screaming all summer to pursue woods. The stats say he's been playing like a God at both ends of the court, and the SUns PFs?

Barf. Saric and Crowder are both pretty bad when looking at it mathematically.

Hassan Whiteside is proof this needs tweaking

Agreed. How different is this than just looking at VORP? (And yes, I know all advanced stats all-encompassing metrics are flawed.)

The big differences are:
Wood is +44 spots higher
Russ is +33
Embiid is +18
Montrez is +14
KAT is +7

Dame is -7 spots lower
Tatum is -7
Jimmy is -5
AD is -4


So...When it comes to VORP, it looks like your model really over-rates something that Russ, Embiid, Wood, and Montrez have in common (and KAT to a lesser extent.)

It slightly under-rates things that Tatum, Dame, Butler and AD have in common.

Code: Select all

Worm's               Diff to 
Rank                  VORP
 1     Giannis        +1
 2     LeBron         -1
 3     Harden         -2
 4     Jokic          -1
 5     Kawhi          +3
 6     Luka           +1
 7     Embiid         +18
 8     CP3            +2
 9     Dame           -5
10     AD             -4
11     KAT            +7
12     t Wood         +44
13     Gobert          0
14     Butler         -5
15     Middleton      -1
16     Russ           +33
17     Lowry          +3
18     Tatum          -7
19     Montrez        +14
20     Whiteside      +3

[Split T]

VORP is a counting stat, so minutes could be a big factor. Wood didn’t play a ton of minutes. Montrezl came off the bench. Did Embiid miss quite a few games?

[Indy]

I think VORP is pro-rated to team possessions. Giannis played less than 2000 minutes and he is 2nd.

[Split T]

Hmm, I thought it was just the counting version of BPM, but maybe I’m wrong

[Indy]

Hmm, I thought it was just the counting version of BPM, but maybe I’m wrong

Found this:

VORP - Value Over Replacement Player (available since the 1973-74 season in the NBA); a box score estimate of the points per 100 TEAM possessions that a player contributed above a replacement-level (-2.0) player, translated to an average team and prorated to an 82-game season. Multiply by 2.70 to convert to wins over replacement. Please see the article About Box Plus/Minus (BPM) for more information.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm2.html

So it is related to BPM, but I think it is weighted based on 100 possessions.

[Superbone]

Nerds!

[ShelC]

[Shabazz]

Had we drafted Lamelo ball, Saucy would’ve developed a nervous tic in his eye.

[specialsauce]

Had we drafted Lamelo ball, Saucy would’ve developed a nervous tic in his eye.

Ugh. Exactly right.
This kid has a lot of growing up to do. I bet he has soft hands

[Flagrant Fowl]

Clowns gonna clown around.

[carey]

I feel bad for Steve Nash. Kyrie is a total fucking headcase.

[ShelC]

Not to be so judgmental, but when I saw Bledsoe with his grill after signing the max deal I just knew he wasn't the guy for us. LaMelo's young so chalk it up to youth, but still not something that screams maturity.

And yea, Kyrie's a knob.

[ShelC]

He hasn't been able to really stick anywhere and his shooting numbers haven't been great but he's still an intriguing player at 6-7 220 who can backup the 2/3.

[djy2j]

He hasn't been able to really stick anywhere and his shooting numbers haven't been great but he's still an intriguing player at 6-7 220 who can backup the 2/3.

He's got to be one of the 5 worst players in the league the past few years. I don't have the stats to back up this claim but I remember watching this dude many times on multiple teams and thinking, "man, this clown doesn't belong in the league." He literally does nothing well on the court. He looks worse than Bender out there.

[Mori Chu]

You sign him to a contract and Hezonja roster.

[Superbone]

You sign him to a contract and Hezonja roster.

He's no good at man-to-man defense. Every time Hezonja.

[jonh]

Had we drafted Lamelo ball, Saucy would’ve developed a nervous tic in his eye.

All I can see is that Pedro-esque mustache.

[Shabazz]

I'm watching some of these preseason games (Knick-Pistons, Hawks-Magic). Woof.

[Split T]

Wall and Cousins actually look good