How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Discussion of the league and of our favorite team.
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In2ition
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How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by In2ition » Sat Aug 03, 2019 2:17 pm

I'm going to do a very unscientific way of figuring out how many wins this team will get by adding and subtracting the average answers to many of the following questions.


How many wins would the Suns have this year if it had the same exact situation and roster from last year? (Asking because it's widely believed that the West in particular and the NBA has gotten SOOO much better) This means starting Canaan, Ariza, & Anderson etc.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Nodack
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Nodack » Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:13 pm

I multiply Suns wins in the last ten years by the number of Suns players and coaches in that time frame and then divide that number by the number of teams in the NBA and divide that number by the number of left handed players who have been in the league at least five years and don’t have any DUI’s.

🤪

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In2ition
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by In2ition » Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:46 pm

Nodack wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:13 pm
I multiply Suns wins in the last ten years by the number of Suns players and coaches in that time frame and then divide that number by the number of teams in the NBA and divide that number by the number of left handed players who have been in the league at least five years and don’t have any DUI’s.

🤪
Haha!

Am I making this too complicated?
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Nodack
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Nodack » Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:51 am

I am just messing with you. I really have no idea how many wins. There was a lot of turnover in the NBA this offseason. Sometimes great players mesh and sometimes not. It will be interesting to see how all these changes turn out for these teams including ours.

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Split T
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Split T » Sun Aug 04, 2019 6:53 am

I think the west is about the same. Some teams got better, some got worse. I’d expect last years team to perform pretty similarly this year as they did last year.

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Marty [Mori Chu]
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Marty [Mori Chu] » Sun Aug 04, 2019 8:50 am

The league shifted from one where a few superteams have a big 3-4 to a league where almost every team has a big 2. And a lot of the teams with the best big 2s have guys who may want/need to rest during the regular season rather than chasing 100% for every win, such as Kawhi and Lebron and Steph. It sure feels like there will be a lot of parity, a lot of teams with 48-55 wins but not many with 60+. Wouldn't surprise me if, say, only 5-6 games separated the 2 seed from the 8 seed in the West next year.

Even if we had a hugely better season with all of our changes, we probably don't make the playoffs with so many good-to-great teams all vying for the same wins. It's a bad year to be in the West; almost every game will be tough. We could be a way better team but still win only, say, 30 games and still finish 13th in the West.

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Superbone
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Superbone » Sun Aug 04, 2019 11:18 am

I'm not even sure what your original question is. What would our record be this season if our opening night roster was what we had for the whole year last season? Or, with the same tweaks that came along the way last season? I do think that our final roster (before injuries) would have done much better last year. As much as 10 games better. I think the West is as tough if not tougher this coming season.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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In2ition
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by In2ition » Sun Aug 04, 2019 12:55 pm

I was trying to get a baseline of which to work from.

Let's just say that the team was really a 18 win team.

How many wins do we minus from giving Warren away?

How many wins do we add or subract by allowing Bender to walk away?

How many wins are added or subtracted by trading away Jackson?

How many wins are added by trading for Saric?

How many wins are added or subtracted by drafting Cam?

How many wins are added or subtracted by trading for Baynes?

How many wins are added or subtracted by drafting Jerome?

How many wins are added by signing Rubio?

How many wins are added by signing Kaminsky?

How many wins are added or subtracted by signing Diallo?
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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Superbone
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Superbone » Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:54 pm

In2ition wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:46 pm
Am I making this too complicated?
Yes. :)
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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Indy
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Indy » Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:11 pm

Superbone wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:54 pm
In2ition wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:46 pm
Am I making this too complicated?
Yes. :)
agreed. We have a 95% chance of winning between 18 and 38 games. Probably a 50% chance of going 25-30.

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Superbone
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Superbone » Sun Aug 04, 2019 4:49 pm

Indy wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 3:11 pm
Superbone wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:54 pm
In2ition wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:46 pm
Am I making this too complicated?
Yes. :)
agreed. We have a 95% chance of winning between 18 and 38 games. Probably a 50% chance of going 25-30.
And 60% of the time, Sex Panther works every time.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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O_Gardino
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by O_Gardino » Mon Aug 05, 2019 7:28 am

I don't think our record last year had a lot to do with our competition. We were bad enough that only a few teams had to play hard against us for a full game. Most teams would just turn it on for the first 6 minutes of the 3rd quarter and coast the rest of the game. That team could have faced significantly different competition and still ended with the same record.
SELL THE TEAM
#notank
#sarverout

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jonh
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by jonh » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:13 am

Superbone wrote:
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:54 pm
In2ition wrote:
Sat Aug 03, 2019 7:46 pm
Am I making this too complicated?
Yes. :)
Ahh, August, how I have missed you.
“I’m done with not making the playoffs. I’m serious. This is probably the last year I’m ever not making the playoffs.” Devin Booker-- April, 2017

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ShelC
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by ShelC » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:28 am

My gut tells me Rubio and Monty should be good for at least 10 wins. A full season of Oubre, an improved Ayton with more usage/touches in the post, Saric as a stretch 4 and a more efficient Booker should add another 5-7 wins.

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carey
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by carey » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:37 am

ShelC wrote:My gut tells me Rubio and Monty should be good for at least 10 wins. A full season of Oubre, an improved Ayton with more usage/touches in the post, Saric as a stretch 4 and a more efficient Booker should add another 5-7 wins.
It'll be very difficult for Booker to be as efficient as last year so penciling him in as more efficient is not necessarily a given. I think people are assuming his 3P% will go up and everything else will stay the same. Only his midrange % last year was absurdly good. Like 3rd best all time for a guard. With only a couple DWade seasons ahead of him. He's just going to automatically replicate that? I don't know. I think the smart play (h/t to Kellan) is that his 3P% goes up but the 2P% regresses to the mean a tad. Anyway, just something to think about.
Go Suns!

Og Snus!

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Split T
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by Split T » Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:25 am

carey wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:37 am
ShelC wrote:My gut tells me Rubio and Monty should be good for at least 10 wins. A full season of Oubre, an improved Ayton with more usage/touches in the post, Saric as a stretch 4 and a more efficient Booker should add another 5-7 wins.
It'll be very difficult for Booker to be as efficient as last year so penciling him in as more efficient is not necessarily a given. I think people are assuming his 3P% will go up and everything else will stay the same. Only his midrange % last year was absurdly good. Like 3rd best all time for a guard. With only a couple DWade seasons ahead of him. He's just going to automatically replicate that? I don't know. I think the smart play (h/t to Kellan) is that his 3P% goes up but the 2P% regresses to the mean a tad. Anyway, just something to think about.
I think that’s fair...though booker has always been a pretty good mid range guy. It may drop a bit, but I think his improvements finishing at the rim and in the mid range are legitimate. Also, I think there’s a good chance his 3pt % goes up significantly. I’d expect a more efficient booker next year, not a huge jump, but I expect about .600 for TS% on him.

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In2ition
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by In2ition » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:29 am

Split T wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:25 am
carey wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:37 am
ShelC wrote:My gut tells me Rubio and Monty should be good for at least 10 wins. A full season of Oubre, an improved Ayton with more usage/touches in the post, Saric as a stretch 4 and a more efficient Booker should add another 5-7 wins.
It'll be very difficult for Booker to be as efficient as last year so penciling him in as more efficient is not necessarily a given. I think people are assuming his 3P% will go up and everything else will stay the same. Only his midrange % last year was absurdly good. Like 3rd best all time for a guard. With only a couple DWade seasons ahead of him. He's just going to automatically replicate that? I don't know. I think the smart play (h/t to Kellan) is that his 3P% goes up but the 2P% regresses to the mean a tad. Anyway, just something to think about.
I think that’s fair...though booker has always been a pretty good mid range guy. It may drop a bit, but I think his improvements finishing at the rim and in the mid range are legitimate. Also, I think there’s a good chance his 3pt % goes up significantly. I’d expect a more efficient booker next year, not a huge jump, but I expect about .600 for TS% on him.
I'm hopeful that Rubio helps both his turnover rate go down and his 3 pt % go up this year. Last year it took a dip in part because he didn't have a decent PG to play with, and he was dealing with hand surgery to start the year, probably wasn't in the best of shape, then had hamstring and back injuries he was dealing with for a large chunk of the beginning of the season. After the All-Star break, he was averaging over .600 TS % and 30 ppg along with nearly 8 assists. That's pretty impressive. He's improved every year, and I hope that it continues this year.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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ShelC
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by ShelC » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:36 am

Maybe efficient wasn't the right word. I just think having a PG to handle a majority of the time and take that pressure off Book will help him overall. He can maybe be more dangerous if the defense has to account for Rubio and he can just focus on his offense and getting open rather than handling the ball, being the focus of the defense all the time and looking to get others involved.

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In2ition
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by In2ition » Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:39 am

I also forgot to mention that I think his 2 pt % and % at the rim improving could have been helped that he worked on his left hand exclusively while he was recovering from hand surgery on his right hand. Idk, could be a factor and hopefully it stays and even improves.
"Our Suns are DEAD!!!"
Nate Duncan / Morten Jensen
Ben Goliver / Jake Madison
Bryan Toporek / John Karalis
Danny Leroux / Jonathan Feigen
Howard Beck / Dan Devine
Dan Favale / Andy Bailey
Coach Nick / Jared Weiss
Marc Jiang / David Aldridge

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carey
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Re: How many wins? Figuring total...w/ questions

Post by carey » Mon Aug 05, 2019 8:44 pm

ShelC wrote:
Mon Aug 05, 2019 10:36 am
Maybe efficient wasn't the right word. I just think having a PG to handle a majority of the time and take that pressure off Book will help him overall. He can maybe be more dangerous if the defense has to account for Rubio and he can just focus on his offense and getting open rather than handling the ball, being the focus of the defense all the time and looking to get others involved.
You were the post I replied to but really it was about the sentiment I've been seeing a lot of on Twitter, at RealGM, etc. Hope I didn't offend.
Go Suns!

Og Snus!

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