Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

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AmareIsGod
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Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by AmareIsGod » Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:33 am

Here's a map of confirmed infected:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

I've heard rumblings that the number infected is closer to well in excess of 100,000.

This weekend, the first reported case in AZ, an ASU student, made the news.

Can those better in the know explain how concerned we should be. I have an 8 week old daughter and assume the symptoms are most devastating for the youth and the elderly.
What is smallball? I play basketball. I'm not a regular big man. I can switch from the center to the guards. The game is evolving. You got dudes like Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, all these 7-footers, doing everything. There's no stopping us. - Ayton

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Cap
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap » Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:41 am

There’s not much you can do. Just live your life and pray for the best.
JJ will be better than KP when all is said and done [in 2020]. Mark it. — AIG, with Indy betting against

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AmareIsGod
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by AmareIsGod » Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:52 am

How does it compare to some of the previous scares we've had with outbreaks?
What is smallball? I play basketball. I'm not a regular big man. I can switch from the center to the guards. The game is evolving. You got dudes like Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, all these 7-footers, doing everything. There's no stopping us. - Ayton

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AmareIsGod
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by AmareIsGod » Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:52 am

Cap wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:41 am
There’s not much you can do. Just live your life and pray for the best.
Yeah. I agree. I guess, until there are more cases reported here, we can't really keep the family indoors and isolated. We're halfway through season 3 of The Handmaid's Tale so I'm probably a bit in apocalyptic mode.
What is smallball? I play basketball. I'm not a regular big man. I can switch from the center to the guards. The game is evolving. You got dudes like Joel Embiid, Anthony Davis, all these 7-footers, doing everything. There's no stopping us. - Ayton

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Indy
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Mon Jan 27, 2020 11:56 am

AmareIsGod wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:52 am
How does it compare to some of the previous scares we've had with outbreaks?
I haven't heard that it is worse than the similar corona-viruses we have already experienced (think of SARS). I haven't read too much on it, so I don't know if the dead are more in the immuno-compromised group or not. I would assume so, but I only play a doctor on TV.

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Superbone
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:17 pm

Cap wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:41 am
There’s not much you can do. Just live your life and pray for the best.
I've read that the flu shot can help. I've gotten it for about the last 6 years at least. I've only had the flu once in that time.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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Flagrant Fowl
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Mon Jan 27, 2020 3:44 pm

There have been three reported cases over here in Korea so far. Apparently, some 5,000-ish people left Wuhan for Korea before the travel ban was implemented but finding sources on that is unreliable because, you know, China...

The way I understand it, it's not outright deadly. It's not the zombie apocalypse. It can threaten lives of young children, the elderly, and anyone with a preexisting condition just like any other flu bug. The issue is containment to prevent mutation and the containment part is made more difficult because, you know, China...

In any case, I'm going to Vietnam in about a week. I suppose it can't be any better or worse there than it is in Korea over there.
UOducks4life in a previous life. Valar Morghulis.

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Cap
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Cap » Mon Jan 27, 2020 5:02 pm

Superbone wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 12:17 pm
Cap wrote:
Mon Jan 27, 2020 10:41 am
There’s not much you can do. Just live your life and pray for the best.
I've read that the flu shot can help. I've gotten it for about the last 6 years at least. I've only had the flu once in that time.
Don’t get the flu shot to prevent Coronavirus. Get the flu shot to prevent the flu. It’s a bigger threat to you at this point than the Wuhan virus.
JJ will be better than KP when all is said and done [in 2020]. Mark it. — AIG, with Indy betting against

My [2019-20] prediction is better than mid 30s... mark it down! — Superbone

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Mori Chu
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Mori Chu » Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:23 am

They just found a case near Sacramento of unknown origin, in a person who has not traveled to Asia. So it is probably here in the wild and spreading without people knowing it. It could get bad in the next few weeks. Pretty scary that it is already in our area.

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Superbone
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Thu Feb 27, 2020 2:48 am

I think the whole thing is blown out of proportion. The standard flu has killed many thousands more than Covid 19.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing.

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pickle
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by pickle » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:32 am

I will try to post more about it tomorrow. Have some advice for everyone for sure.

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pickle
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by pickle » Thu Feb 27, 2020 8:47 pm

It was a bit late last night so I didn't post at length. Depending on level of interest I can write a little more, but for now, I'll just explain why this nCoV is an issue, and what you should do. Keep in mind that statistics are not final, as you really cannot get reliable numbers until well after the disease has leveled off to see what fatality rates really are and how it affects various sub-groups. I get the "because China" angle and I don't want to sound too defensive. China has definitely had some issues with reporting, but in this case, I think the numbers are largely reliable in terms of how it should guide your behavior. In terms of the specific numbers, whether there are 70k or 80k or 100k patients, those numbers aren't terribly informative beyond giving you an idea of the scale anyway. As for how many people left Wuhan for what other regions, there is no way to accurately track these numbers unless you know to track them and have set up the infrastructure to specifically do so, so it's not a China issue specifically. Again, I say this not to defend China per se, but to explain that the information you get from the news should be reasonable guidance for you.
  1. Fatality rates seem to be lower than other corona viruses in the past such as SARS, "swine flu", and certainly Ebola.
  2. I have not seen statistics on how many people are light, moderate, or severe cases, and I have also not seen information from reliable sources on how many people who have light symptoms develop into moderate or severe cases without proper treatment, but the general sentiment here in China has definitely been that it's not as dangerous
  3. However, that is not to say that this nCoV should be taken lightly. What makes this strain particularly dangerous is the fact that it has a much longer incubation period (14 days), and people are still transmitting the disease when they are showing almost no symptoms, so there are many many silent transmitters. I can expound upon this if people are interested
  4. To protect yourself, you should avoid crowds, and have a supply of medical masks and N95 dust masks for when you go to places with a lot of people; wash your hands thoroughly often, and leave your outdoors clothes at the entry to your home (hopefully you have a foyer that can be sealed from the rest of your home); avoid touching your mouth, nose, or eyes with unwashed hands
  5. There are other ways the disease can spread, but it's generally not a problem for people who aren't in the contagious disease wards in hospitals. Just protect your mouth and nose and make sure you are wearing your mask the right way, and wash your hands thoroughly often
  6. So far the statistics suggests that children are less infected, but that may be because children in China tend not to go to densely populated areas such as supermarkets; there is no scientific conclusion on whether children are more or less susceptible
  7. There has been statistically significant empirical evidence that men are far more susceptible than women to the nCoV
  8. Fatality rate for elderly and the infirm is much higher, as with the flu or other diseases in general
  9. The hypothesis is that nCoV virus does not like higher temperatures, based on both experience with past corona viruses and empirical evidence
Hopefully this gives everyone a better idea of what to do about this nCoV thing... just to emphasize:

Avoid crowds, wash your hands, don't touch your face, and prepare masks if you have to go to crowded areas.

If this spreads further in the West, I can see more companies asking people to work from home. So make some preparations accordingly -- I had to set up my working area at home with a 3 year old baby constantly trying to get my attention. Stock up on dried goods like pasta and frozen dumplings to cut down on your trips to the market, but of course don't go overboard.

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Flagrant Fowl
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Flagrant Fowl » Thu Feb 27, 2020 9:08 pm

Pickle, what do you think about the impact of smoking and air quality on the severity and mortality rate of those infected?

Cigarette smoking in Korea is insanely high by American standards, and I've heard that it's even greater in China. I'm inclined to believe that at least the smoking part could be one reason why men are being affected at a higher rate because their immune systems, especially their lungs, are weaker.
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pickle
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Re: Coronovirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by pickle » Thu Feb 27, 2020 10:00 pm

Honestly, I haven't. It is possible that there is correlation with lung health in general, but the numbers I have seen are that over 70% of the infected cases thus far have been men... I am not a medical professional so I cannot judge further than that. I'm certainly not saying send your wives out to do the shopping. :)

There's a lot of misinformation in China, and overseas, from what I can observe, people just aren't as tuned in so even if there are reports they are often drowned out by other news. But the articles I've read in the NYT have been great, so definitely check out their coverage. This one provides some useful information, for instance.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/podc ... anscript=1

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