Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Sat May 23, 2020 8:33 am

Nodack wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 8:22 am
I have been self quarantining for three days now and feel fine. My doc said no test unless symptoms. My brother told me about free testing being done at Tempe Diablo stadium and I signed up and are getting tested this morning. Better than waiting two weeks to find out.

I was exposed are a hair place. I saw this today.

A hairstylist worked while symptomatic and exposed 91 people to coronavirus
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/23/us/misso ... index.html
A hairstylist with coronavirus worked for eight days this month while symptomatic, exposing as many as 91 customers and coworkers in Missouri, health officials said.
If they can't get you for opening your business, they should be able to get you for knowingly infecting people. Some people are just terrible and this is why everyone will be infected at some point. It's just not going to be wiped out, eradicated, or contained.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 9:11 am

The goal stated at first was to flatten the curve so our medical system isn’t overrun and to give them time to come up with a vaccine. From what I read a vaccine could take anywhere from five years to never. If we went the zero precaution route and just stayed open throughout this we would probably have a million dead already and our hospitals would have been decimated. The exact right course isn’t written in stone anywhere but, I don’t think ignoring it would have had a better outcome for America.

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ShelC
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by ShelC » Sat May 23, 2020 12:03 pm

Here's a Forbes article on Sweden's herd immunity strategy:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohe ... d92f962dcd

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Superbone
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Sat May 23, 2020 12:08 pm

Cap wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:41 am
specialsauce wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:47 pm
Finally, if you have the neutralizing antibodies, how much immunity does that provide and for how long? We know with the common cold strains we do not have lasting immunity. Our immunity wanes after 6 months- 1 year or so of catching the common cold strain of corona. So with COVID are we looking at lasting immunity of a year?
Would that mean that any vaccine would need to be taken annually?
I know I get a flu shot annually. I'd assume it would be a similar thing. But I'm not a doctor and don't even play one on TV.
Wormwood/Superbone 2019/2020 season bet: Suns win < 30 games, Wormwood wins, else 'Bone wins. 1 month avatar shame starting July 1st of winner's choosing. (Note: Requires full 82 game season.)

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 12:45 pm

But you have stayed at a Holiday Inn Express a few times...

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Sat May 23, 2020 1:54 pm

Cap wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 6:41 am
specialsauce wrote:
Fri May 22, 2020 8:47 pm
Finally, if you have the neutralizing antibodies, how much immunity does that provide and for how long? We know with the common cold strains we do not have lasting immunity. Our immunity wanes after 6 months- 1 year or so of catching the common cold strain of corona. So with COVID are we looking at lasting immunity of a year?
Would that mean that any vaccine would need to be taken annually?
I think this could go one of a few routes. If it mutates and has different strains like influenza, then certainly. I think more likely we will require booster immunizations like Hep B or tetanus.

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 2:52 pm

I found a decent article on Herd Immunity and Covid.

What Is Herd Immunity and Could It Help Prevent COVID-19?
https://www.healthline.com/health/herd- ... w-it-works

For some diseases, herd immunity can go into effect when 40 percent of the people in a population become immune to the disease, such as through vaccination. But in most cases, 80 to 95 percent of the population must be immune to the disease to stop its spread.

There are several reasons why herd immunity isn’t the answer to stopping the spread of the new coronavirus:

There isn’t yet a vaccine for SARS-CoV-2. Vaccinations are the safest way to practice herd immunity in a population.
The research for antivirals and other medications to treat COVID-19 is ongoing.
Scientists don’t know if you can contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 more than once.
People who contract SARS-CoV-2 and develop COVID-19 can experience serious side effects. Severe cases can lead to death.
Doctors don’t yet know exactly why some people who contract SARS-CoV-2 develop severe COVID-19, while others do not.
Vulnerable members of society, such as older adults and people with some chronic health conditions, could get very sick if they’re exposed to this virus.
Otherwise healthy and younger people may become very ill with COVID-19.
Hospitals and healthcare systems may be overburdened if many people develop COVID-19 at the same time.

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 3:28 pm

A vaccine cheats and helps develop herd immunity be making us immune to it. They may never develop a vaccine or they might. In the mean time, we won’t be out of this until enough people get it to develop herd immunity on it’s own it seems. At the same time we are doing everything in our power to NOT get it, slowing down the curve so we don’t all get it at once.

We are opening up and people are starting to mix. As I have seen first hand people are going to go out in public with it and spread this more. Part of me says let them willing to risk it risk it help develop the herd immunity for the rest of us. Some will pay with their lives. Those with medical conditions, young children and older people should stay in lockdown as much as possible. I will be the guy everybody thinks is an idiot with the mask on at the grocery store for awhile longer.

I got my Covid test today. I won’t know the results for 48 hours they said. It was a drive thru free service sponsored by Kroeger at Tempe Diablo Stadium. You drive up, they show you a sign that says “Keep window up, place ID on dashboard, do you have an appointment? They take your info down and send you off to the next station where they ask you medical questions, give you an instruction pamphlet for taking the test, some other legal documents, some tissues and send you off to the next station. There they let you crack your window and a guy gives you a swab for your nose and tells you you have to stick it up a certain distance deeper than you would like and then swirl it around for fifteen seconds as he counts them. Then you take it out and repeat for the other side. It tickled or irritated pretty bad and made my eyes water. After that he lets you slide it back into a container and tells you you are done. Now I just have to wait 48 hours. This is a holiday weekend so I suspect it might be longer. Back to self quarantining for a couple more days. No symptoms yet.

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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Sat May 23, 2020 3:43 pm

Having you self swab in my opinion is a poor practice. There’s just no way people will stick it far enough posteriorly. You gotta go a lot deeper than you think, all the way back. It’s like asking someone to stab themselves. The inaccuracy with the nasal swab is thought to be primarily with inadequate specimen collection and the best way to ensure it is adequate is to have someone who knows what they’re doing collect them swab.

Also, herd immunity only happens if you have sustained immunity after illness or vaccination. If you are susceptible again after 4-6 months, ain’t no such thing as herd immunity.

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 10:12 pm

I put the swab in as far as I thought it should go and the guy right outside my window said further, so I went further. He said further and I got it pretty far up there. Like I said, I was tearing up. I guess that’s what the tissue paper is for. They did ask me at the station before that one if I was comfortable self swabbing. I said I think so. I saw demonstrations of earlier tests where it seems like they stab the brain from the nose it goes so far up.

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sat May 23, 2020 10:21 pm

Are we sure we are susceptible again or is it a couple of cases and no definitive proof yet? If we can get it again for sure that soon, that rules out herd immunity. People get sick and develop antibodies that kill off the disease, right? Do they just fade away after four months? I know different strains of the flu keep developing every year. Could this thing be mutating that often? Sometimes it makes you wonder about mother nature. Are we the disease and Covid is the antibodies?

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Superbone
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Superbone » Sun May 24, 2020 12:30 am

Yeah, I've read about the swab test. Does not sound fun!
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specialsauce
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by specialsauce » Sun May 24, 2020 5:46 am

Nodack wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 10:12 pm
I put the swab in as far as I thought it should go and the guy right outside my window said further, so I went further. He said further and I got it pretty far up there. Like I said, I was tearing up. I guess that’s what the tissue paper is for. They did ask me at the station before that one if I was comfortable self swabbing. I said I think so. I saw demonstrations of earlier tests where it seems like they stab the brain from the nose it goes so far up.
Lol stab the brain is a good description . As for antibodies, no we’re not sure of anything yet from what I know. Time and research will tell

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Nodack
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Nodack » Sun May 24, 2020 8:21 am

Hair salons infecting people seems to be a common theme now.

A second hairstylist who worked while symptomatic potentially exposed 56 clients to Covid-19, officials say
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/us/misso ... index.html

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Mori Chu
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Mori Chu » Sun May 24, 2020 11:12 am

Today we will pass 100k dead in the US. Very sad.

Image

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Sun May 24, 2020 12:59 pm

It is very sad.
"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Sun May 24, 2020 5:39 pm

"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Sun May 24, 2020 5:42 pm

"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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In2ition
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by In2ition » Sun May 24, 2020 5:42 pm

"30 wins would be an extremely disappointing season" yeah, I said it and I mean it.

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Indy
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Re: Coronavirus: When should we be concerned?

Post by Indy » Sun May 24, 2020 5:46 pm

It seems early to be analyzing infection/transmission rates when we know the incubation time is 14 days or so, and it hasn't been that long (or close to it) since some of the lockdowns ended. Also, very interesting that JP Morgan paid for a study that shows people need to go back to work to keep business/stocks performing.

I would be interested to see a study 5-6 weeks after lockdown ends, though.

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