Phx-Suns.Net

Eastern Conference
No. 1 Bucks vs. No. 8 seed
No. 2 Celtics vs. No. 7 seed
No. 3 76ers vs. No. 6 Nets
No. 4 Cavaliers vs. No. 5 Knicks

Western Conference
No. 1 Nuggets vs. No. 8 seed
No. 2 Grizzlies vs. No. 7 seed
No. 3 Kings vs. No. 6 Warriors
No. 4 Suns vs. No. 5 Clippers

Play-In Tourney Schedule
Tuesday, April 11
Play-In Game 1: (8) Hawks at (7) Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Play-In Game 2: (8) Timberwolves at (7) Lakers, 10 p.m. ET, TNT

Wednesday, April 12
Play-In Game 3: (10) Bulls at (9) Raptors, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Play-In Game 4: (10) Thunder at (9) Pelicans, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Friday, April 14
Play-In Game 5: Game 3 winner at Game 1 loser, 7 or 7:30 p.m. ET, TNT
Play-In Game 6: Game 4 winner at Game 2 loser, 9:30 or 10 p.m. ET, ESPN

2022-23 NBA Predictions

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... /?whatever

Based on RAPTOR, which is a pretty garbage metric in this context.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 10, 2023 5:21 pm

2022-23 NBA Predictions

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... /?whatever

Based on RAPTOR, which is a pretty garbage metric in this context.

3%?!?!?!

Is that based on how the Suns did throughout the season, or based on the Suns with Kevin Durant?

It’s a player based forecast…our depth really hurts us. It only has 4 players listed as positives for us. KD, Booker, CP3, and Okogie. So any minutes for anyone else brings us down.

Split T wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 10, 2023 8:54 pm

It’s a player based forecast…our depth really hurts us. It only has 4 players listed as positives for us. KD, Booker, CP3, and Okogie. So any minutes for anyone else brings us down.

The fuck? Ayton is a net negative?

According to their player forecaster he is. It uses RAPTOR.

Rates him as a -1.2 on offense and a +.6 on defense.

I lied though. It looks like Payne and Landale are net positives. Payne is +.2 and Landale is +.1

How can a guy who averages 18 ppg on .617 TS% be a -1.2 on offense?

I’m not sure how exactly RAPTOR determines their ratings…but they also think Jokic is the best defensive player in the league…so not sure how reliable

It's a "catch all metric". It does a pretty good job evaluating individual player performance, IMO. I just don't like how it's applied to a full team projection in the first link I posted.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ho ... ric-works/

RAPTOR, which stands for Robust Algorithm (using) Player Tracking (and) On/Off Ratings, is FiveThirtyEight’s new NBA statistic.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 10, 2023 11:26 pm

It's a "catch all metric". It does a pretty good job evaluating individual player performance, IMO.

Agreed, because clearly Ayton is the 213th best player in the league and Booker is definitely worse than Fred Van Vleet, Austin Reaves, Derrick White, and Delon Wright (Total Raptor). And Franz Wagner and Josh Hart are certainly better than Kevin Durant and LeBron James (Raptor WAR).

The 11th best player in the league according to Total Raptor? Alex Caruso. Sounds about right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nb ... r-ratings/

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:05 am

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 10, 2023 11:26 pm

It's a "catch all metric". It does a pretty good job evaluating individual player performance, IMO.

Agreed, because clearly Ayton is the 213th best player in the league and Booker is definitely worse than Fred Van Vleet, Austin Reaves, Derrick White, and Delon Wright (Total Raptor). And Franz Wagner and Josh Hart are certainly better than Kevin Durant and LeBron James (Raptor WAR).

The 11th best player in the league according to Total Raptor? Alex Caruso. Sounds about right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nb ... r-ratings/

Just looked at it now and Caruso is #35.

Cap wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 10, 2023 9:59 pm

How can a guy who averages 18 ppg on .617 TS% be a -1.2 on offense?

We need a seance to resurrect 2021 Playoffs Ayton.

Cap wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:24 am

JeremyG wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 11, 2023 10:05 am

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 10, 2023 11:26 pm

It's a "catch all metric". It does a pretty good job evaluating individual player performance, IMO.

Agreed, because clearly Ayton is the 213th best player in the league and Booker is definitely worse than Fred Van Vleet, Austin Reaves, Derrick White, and Delon Wright (Total Raptor). And Franz Wagner and Josh Hart are certainly better than Kevin Durant and LeBron James (Raptor WAR).

The 11th best player in the league according to Total Raptor? Alex Caruso. Sounds about right.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nb ... r-ratings/

Just looked at it now and Caruso is #35.

That's the default sorting by Raptor WAR (which has Durant just above him at #34 and Booker at #37 ). If you click on total Raptor, he's #11.

So which game will the NBA screw with the Suns and put Scott Foster on officiating duty?

My guess is either Game 1 or Game 3.

Is this era of the Heat dead?

I know they get one more shot at the #8 seed, but they have to be realistic about the ceiling of this team if they can't even reliably make the playoffs.

They need more shooting. I think if you surrounded Herro/Butler/Bam with shooting they could be something. Lowry is pretty washed(Though had a great game tonight). They also got killed on the glass. They could use a a big next to Bam that spaces the floor on offense and can help on the glass. That was supposed to be Love, but he seems washed too.

Not really sure how they add to the team though. What assets do they have? They owe Duncan Robinson close to 60 million over the next 3 years still. Lowry is still on the books next year. Herro's new contract kicks in and Jimmy and Bam are locked up long term. They will only have the. TPMLE to add players. Probably going to need to be active in the trade market.

I can't wait for the Lakers to be eliminated from the Playoffs and some pundit to still claim they're title contenders.

Flagrant Fowl wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 11, 2023 7:29 pm

I can't wait for the Lakers to be eliminated from the Playoffs and some pundit to still claim they're title contenders.

LMAOROF! EXACTLY... What are all the sports talk shows going to discuss if they don't have their dedicated 45 minutes of Lakers talk. Kendrick Perkins especially...