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What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:43 pm
by Superbone
I was just thinking this morning about making this thread and then Marty and Split went and made nice related posts in this week's Suns news thread. I'm going to give my thoughts and then repeat their recent ones.
We thought last year was frustrating. Then we all seemed pretty happy with our offseason only to be even more frustrated and with somehow considerably worse results than last season.
What happened?!
I think it's pretty easy to see in hindsight that all the players we brought in are offensively minded but defensively inadequate. I agree with @Split T that we needed to surround Booker/Durant with size and defense. Then we traded probably our best defender but lacked size for Richards but was also a need. Our best remaining defenders are probably Dunn and O'Neale and that's about it.
Regarding coaching, I wasn't very happy with Vogel but I'm even less pleased with Bud. And I tried to be very patient with him but we keep doing the same thing over and over (definition of insanity) with the same results. VERY sloppy with the ball and turnovers and horrible defensive rebounding, not to mention offensive rebounding (I guess I just did). Either the players aren't listening to Bud or he's not concentrating on the obvious issues.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:44 pm
by Superbone
Mori Chu wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 11:51 am
There's this emerging narrative lately that Vogel was actually a better coach for us than Bud. I get where that's coming from, but I feel like each one has noticeable strengths and weaknesses. Our defense and rebounding seem much worse this year, but our offense has a better flow than last year. IMO deciding not to play Nurk is a big factor, along with reducing his role in the offense; Nurk was important on both ends for us last year but he's just gone this year. Also having Tyus, who is an absolute dud on defense and mostly stands around on offense, is a huge negative. I think those two things matter a lot more than the coach. But I do think Bud's offense is better than Vogel's while Vogel's defense was tighter. I prefer Bud but also understand that neither has gotten good results. Mostly I have just concluded that a Booker/KD team (with $50m tied up in mostly dead Beal salary) isn't going to win with any coach.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:44 pm
by Superbone
Split T wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:19 pm
You need to surround Book/KD with size and defense…we opted for the exact opposite…some interesting stats because offense in general is down:
Relative offensive rating went from +2.3 in 2024 to +1.5 in 2025…so a slight decrease. Relative defensive rating went from +0.7 to -3.3. Quite a huge drop.
I love the four factors stats as it really shows what changed and encompasses just about everything:
Offensive four factors:
2024: 6th in efg%, 27th in TOV%, 11th in ORB, 1st in ftr
2025: 8th in efg%, 17th in TOV%, 27th in ORB, 4th in ftr
So our shot making and ability to get to the line slightly dipped. Turnover rate improved quite a bit, but our offensive rebound rate dropped a ton. We saved a couple possessions by limiting turnovers, but probably lost even more by not rebounding our misses.
Defensive four factors:
2024: 7th in efg%, 25th in TOV%, 17th in DRB, 7th in ftr
2025:11th in efg%, 28th in TOV, 28th in DRB, 16th in ftr
So we got worse at everything…we don’t force turnovers, don’t rebound missed shots, and while last year we at least forced missed shots and didn’t foul, we got worse at both of those.
Size helps you rebound and forced miss shots. Athletes help you force turnovers. That’s what we need.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:48 pm
by Superbone
Speaking of defense, even if we don't have the best defenders, they could do a lot better. As we often hear, defense is mostly about effort. Well, these guys aren't making much of an effort to box out, get rebounds, fight through screens, often leave shooters wide open or unimpeded lanes to the basket. I've seen this team play pretty decent defense for about a quarter at most but they're lazy and sloppy on defense the majority of the time.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:53 pm
by Cap
I went wrong. I used protomatter.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:55 pm
by Superbone
Another thing about Bud. Seems to have some Monty Williams in him. Why did Nurk's play have to be all or nothing? He could have at least put him out there in situations that called for size. Also, what's with his preoccupation with playing Plumlee more than Richards? At least Richards will attack the basket occasionally. Plumlee seems to have lost all skill around the basket. And why do they let him bring the ball across half court? Just dumb.
Also kind of weird to suddenly start playing Bol Bol and TyTy and even Gillespie. I mean, it kind of makes sense since what we were doing wasn't working. And I like what all those guys are contributing and that all of them play hard on defense and rebounding. I'm just wondering if that was front office mandated or Bud decided to start mixing it up?
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:01 pm
by Split T
For all his flaws, Nurk played decent defense for us last year and he rebounded. I don’t know what happened to him this year, but he sucked. I think we went too all in at making him into Brook Lopez.
Tyus has been a nice option as someone who can limit turnovers…but the problem is we didn’t need him to start. On this team Booker should have the ball in his hands. Tyus should be running the 2nd unit.
Beal and Grayson are nice players, but too similar and too small. We didn’t need both of them. Beal was untradable, but Grayson for some size was probably something we needed to do. We probably should’ve played Okogie and Dunn more as well.
If I could go back and change the lineups(Trade Nurk for Richards instead):
Booker/Royce/Dunn/KD/Richards
Tyus/Beal or Grayson/Okogie/Bol/Plumlee
If you can’t get Tyus to come here without promising him to start, just go with a Beal/Grayson backcourt. Move Morris/Gillespie/TyTy up if you can move Beal/Grayson for size.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:10 pm
by BigLewy
I think Bud is at the point of throwing shit against the wall and seeing what sticks. I do think he is a better coach than Vogel. I don't think he's lost the team, you could tell last year they had tuned Vogel out.
To me, the biggest thing that went wrong was getting Beal, which is obvious. KD and Booker had taken Denver to 6 games basically by themselves after Ayton and CP3 went down. I would have used the Beal salary/draft assets to build around them better with a more balanced team. Ayton's time had run its course, and CP3 was aging badly, but I think they could have used those contracts to build out a squad that would complement KD and Booker instead of getting Beal, who is so redundant. And now they've used up almost all draft assets and are stuck with Beal, so a KD trade is really the only way out of this mess unless Beal is suddenly all for going to a team like the Bulls.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:33 pm
by Superbone
Not to mention that Camara would have been perfect for this team. (Athletic big, very good defensively) Huge mistake in giving him up in the Ayton trade.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:35 pm
by BigLewy
Superbone wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 1:33 pm
Not to mention that Camara would have been perfect for this team. (Athletic big, very good defensively) Huge mistake in giving him up in the Ayton trade.
I'd love to know, actually maybe I don't, on whether or not he was a throw-in to make salaries work, or if Portland demanded him and would have walked away without him.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 3:13 pm
by The Bobster
This team is built around too many players who can't/won't defend - Booker, Beal, Allen, Jones - plus not having the size to match up with big teams in the or the athleticism to match up with the quick teams on the perimeter. Throw in not being able to rebound, take care of the ball, get back on defense or force turnovers, and they stink.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 4:20 pm
by Cap
Superbone wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:55 pm
Plumlee seems to have lost all skill around the basket. And why do they let him bring the ball across half court? Just dumb.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:22 pm
by Charlie Smithy!
Cap wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 4:20 pm
Superbone wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:55 pm
Plumlee seems to have lost all skill around the basket. And why do they let him bring the ball across half court? Just dumb.
Eye moss small nl lolled egg WAIL a case ace when ya.
Cap, what does this mean?
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:35 pm
by Cap
Charlie Smithy! wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:22 pm
Cap wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 4:20 pm
Superbone wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 12:55 pm
Plumlee seems to have lost all skill around the basket. And why do they let him bring the ball across half court? Just dumb.
Eye moss small nl lolled egg WAIL a case ace when ya.
Cap, what does this mean?
A slight misquote from Don Quixote. “Hay más mal en el aldegüela que se sueña,” which roughly translated means, “Things in our little place are worse than you can imagine.”
Turns out Cervantes actually wrote “que se suena,” or “worse than you’ve heard.”
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:54 pm
by Mori Chu
We will eventually survive this disappointing era of Suns basketball. But for God's sake I hope we -learn- from it. Don't trade away a decade's worth of draft picks, nor abandon promising young players as throw-ins on trades. Don't ever give a player a no-trade clause nor acquire a player who has one. Don't trade for a huge contract at a redundant position with your best player. Don't overstack your team with subpar defenders or subpar athletes. Develop your talent. Teach them to play the right way. Reward effort. Hold guys accountable. I could give a shit how many games we win this season or next. I just want to see the right kind of play being worked on, cultivated, rewarded.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:56 pm
by Cap
And next time, make sure the lookout has binoculars.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2025 4:27 am
by Kryptonic
It’s been one EXPENSIVE lesson…. That’s for sure.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2025 6:15 am
by Superbone
Kryptonic wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 4:27 am
It’s been one
EXPENSIVE lesson…. That’s for sure.
Good thing it's not our money. But it is our team. As disappointed as we are, I'd think Ishbia would be even more disappointed.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2025 6:35 am
by Superbone
Mori Chu wrote: ↑Fri Feb 14, 2025 5:54 pm
We will eventually survive this disappointing era of Suns basketball. But for God's sake I hope we -learn- from it. Don't trade away a decade's worth of draft picks, nor abandon promising young players as throw-ins on trades. Don't ever give a player a no-trade clause nor acquire a player who has one. Don't trade for a huge contract at a redundant position with your best player. Don't overstack your team with subpar defenders or subpar athletes. Develop your talent. Teach them to play the right way. Reward effort. Hold guys accountable. I could give a shit how many games we win this season or next. I just want to see the right kind of play being worked on, cultivated, rewarded.
Right on, Marty. In hindsight, so many mistakes were made. Hard to imagine we were on top of the basketball world just four years ago. We had a great team that played basketball the right way. Now we have KD and this mess of frustrating basketball only played on one end of the floor. You could even see it start happening as soon as we acquired Durant with coach Williams. All of a sudden we had a lot more KD isolations and less team ball.
We would have been so much better off staying with what we had and building on it. As soon as the KD domino fell, things started falling apart. Having said that, we did have to do something as we had those weird shutdowns in the playoffs after our record breaking regular season the year after the Finals.
Re: What went wrong?
Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2025 7:53 am
by Cap
Superbone wrote: ↑Sat Feb 15, 2025 6:35 am
Having said that, we did have to do something as we had those weird shutdowns in the playoffs after our record breaking regular season the year after the Finals.
Here's something we can do: learn from experience about the pitfalls of the "We have to do something" mentality.