2018 Phoenix Suns Pick Watch

[The Bobster]

Milwaukee losing again tonight to the Clippers, good news when you add in wins by Miami and Philadelphia.

Unfortunately, Philadelphia's came against Memphis.

[The Bobster]

According to basketball-reference.com's simulations....

Phoenix has a 22.8% chance to pick #1, 43% to choose #1-2, 59.5% to pick #1-3, 90.2 % to choose #1-4, 98.3% chance to pick #1-5
Phoenix has a 94% of getting Milwaukee's pick with a 91.9% chance it will be #15-16. There is a 58.8% chance Miami's will be #16-17

Most likely position for each pick....
Phoenix's - 4th (each of the four worst teams have their most likely spot being #4)
Milwaukee's - 15th
Miami - 16th

Most likely for the #1 pick - Phoenix 22.8%, Memphis 20.4%, Atlanta 14.8%, Orlando 10.4%, Dallas 7.4%, Cleveland (from Brooklyn) 6.7%, Sacramento 6.5%, Chicago 5.3%

https://www.basketball-reference.com/fr ... draft.html

[EDC]

We have to rest players for tomorrows game. We really need to take a dive now before Silver comes out with more comments threatening tanking teams.

That would only leave the game against the Kings and Mavs as winnable. Problem is Memphis only has one more game against a tank team. They are most likely going to lose out.

[Split T]

I don't think we need to finish with the worst record. I think Memphis will get that. I just don't want to catch Atlanta or Orlando. Orlando has 6 straight games coming up against tankers, so I'm not worried about them.

If we finish 2, we'd have a good shot at a top 3 pick and almost definitely a top 4 pick. 3 teams would have to jump us to drop us to 5. Picking 5th is what I'm afraid of, I don't know who I'd take there if my top 4 are gone.

[Cap]

Most likely position for each pick....
Phoenix's - 4th (each of the four worst teams have their most likely spot being #4)

Well our median pick is #3, assuming we finish in the bottom 2. That’s a bit more meaningful than mode.

[Charlie Smithy!]

Most likely position for each pick....
Phoenix's - 4th (each of the four worst teams have their most likely spot being #4)

Well our median pick is #3, assuming we finish in the bottom 2. That’s a bit more meaningful than mode.

I like the range of your thinking, Cap.

[carey]

I don't think we need to finish with the worst record. I think Memphis will get that. I just don't want to catch Atlanta or Orlando. Orlando has 6 straight games coming up against tankers, so I'm not worried about them.

If we finish 2, we'd have a good shot at a top 3 pick and almost definitely a top 4 pick. 3 teams would have to jump us to drop us to 5. Picking 5th is what I'm afraid of, I don't know who I'd take there if my top 4 are gone.

Most people seem to be settled on a top 3 or 4 already. I have no idea who I would pick after Doncic. Maybe Bagley? I am not the biggest Ayton fan. I saw a lot of him and he never really wow'ed me. He's a zero on defense despite his prodigious athleticism and I don't know the current value of interior scoring when the 2 best teams in the league don't have legit Centers.

[Mori Chu]

I don't think we need to finish with the worst record. I think Memphis will get that. I just don't want to catch Atlanta or Orlando. Orlando has 6 straight games coming up against tankers, so I'm not worried about them.

If we finish 2, we'd have a good shot at a top 3 pick and almost definitely a top 4 pick. 3 teams would have to jump us to drop us to 5. Picking 5th is what I'm afraid of, I don't know who I'd take there if my top 4 are gone.

Most people seem to be settled on a top 3 or 4 already. I have no idea who I would pick after Doncic. Maybe Bagley? I am not the biggest Ayton fan. I saw a lot of him and he never really wow'ed me. He's a zero on defense despite his prodigious athleticism and I don't know the current value of interior scoring when the 2 best teams in the league don't have legit Centers.

I am kind of lukewarm on Ayton, too. Maybe it's that bad instinct fans have about their own local team/player where they've seen him more than other players and therefore know his flaws and warts too well, so they undervalue that player. But I find myself more intrigued by Doncic and Bagley so far.

[Split T]

There's some real concern that Ayton isn't a very good rim protector and just has an overall poor defensive IQ. He really does remind me a lot of Drummond. Big time rebounder, will finish at the rim, flash some passing skills, but their reputation as a rim protector/defenders > actual production. Ayton is a better shooter than Drummond, so he has that going for him.

Still, every defensive concern about Ayton can be applied to Bagley and then some. Bagley is a little more skilled off the dribble and is more natural a scorer than Ayton. His jump shot is a question mark but he did shoot 38% from 3 this year.

Basically a if we're looking for a defensive anchor, we need to take JJJ or Bamba. If we want someone who could potentially be elite on both sides of the ball, we should take Ayton, understanding that he may never get their defensively. Bagley is probably the surest bet to be an offensive star, but also probably the surest bet to struggle defensively. Or we could take Carter, who looks like he'll be solid on both offense and defense.

[Superbone]

There's some real concern that Ayton isn't a very good rim protector and just has an overall poor defensive IQ. He really does remind me a lot of Drummond. Big time rebounder, will finish at the rim, flash some passing skills, but their reputation as a rim protector/defenders > actual production. Ayton is a better shooter than Drummond, so he has that going for him.

Still, every defensive concern about Ayton can be applied to Bagley and then some. Bagley is a little more skilled off the dribble and is more natural a scorer than Ayton. His jump shot is a question mark but he did shoot 38% from 3 this year.

Basically a if we're looking for a defensive anchor, we need to take JJJ or Bamba. If we want someone who could potentially be elite on both sides of the ball, we should take Ayton, understanding that he may never get their defensively. Bagley is probably the surest bet to be an offensive star, but also probably the surest bet to struggle defensively. Or we could take Carter, who looks like he'll be solid on both offense and defense.

So Bagley doesn't use that high motor on the defensive side of the ball? That's disappointing to hear.

[Split T]

There's some real concern that Ayton isn't a very good rim protector and just has an overall poor defensive IQ. He really does remind me a lot of Drummond. Big time rebounder, will finish at the rim, flash some passing skills, but their reputation as a rim protector/defenders > actual production. Ayton is a better shooter than Drummond, so he has that going for him.

Still, every defensive concern about Ayton can be applied to Bagley and then some. Bagley is a little more skilled off the dribble and is more natural a scorer than Ayton. His jump shot is a question mark but he did shoot 38% from 3 this year.

Basically a if we're looking for a defensive anchor, we need to take JJJ or Bamba. If we want someone who could potentially be elite on both sides of the ball, we should take Ayton, understanding that he may never get their defensively. Bagley is probably the surest bet to be an offensive star, but also probably the surest bet to struggle defensively. Or we could take Carter, who looks like he'll be solid on both offense and defense.

So Bagley doesn't use that high motor on the defensive side of the ball? That's disappointing to hear.

Well, Duke plays a zone. He spends most of the time defending the wing with Carter or bolden protecting the paint. Hard to evaluate him in that situation, but he didn't look very good when they were playing man either.

[O_Gardino]

There's some real concern that Ayton isn't a very good rim protector and just has an overall poor defensive IQ. He really does remind me a lot of Drummond. Big time rebounder, will finish at the rim, flash some passing skills, but their reputation as a rim protector/defenders > actual production. Ayton is a better shooter than Drummond, so he has that going for him.

Still, every defensive concern about Ayton can be applied to Bagley and then some. Bagley is a little more skilled off the dribble and is more natural a scorer than Ayton. His jump shot is a question mark but he did shoot 38% from 3 this year.

Basically a if we're looking for a defensive anchor, we need to take JJJ or Bamba. If we want someone who could potentially be elite on both sides of the ball, we should take Ayton, understanding that he may never get their defensively. Bagley is probably the surest bet to be an offensive star, but also probably the surest bet to struggle defensively. Or we could take Carter, who looks like he'll be solid on both offense and defense.

So Bagley doesn't use that high motor on the defensive side of the ball? That's disappointing to hear.

He runs and moves on defense better than most. The knock is that he doesn't seem to have to instincts to make the right play.

[specialsauce]

There's some real concern that Ayton isn't a very good rim protector and just has an overall poor defensive IQ. He really does remind me a lot of Drummond. Big time rebounder, will finish at the rim, flash some passing skills, but their reputation as a rim protector/defenders > actual production. Ayton is a better shooter than Drummond, so he has that going for him.

Still, every defensive concern about Ayton can be applied to Bagley and then some. Bagley is a little more skilled off the dribble and is more natural a scorer than Ayton. His jump shot is a question mark but he did shoot 38% from 3 this year.

Basically a if we're looking for a defensive anchor, we need to take JJJ or Bamba. If we want someone who could potentially be elite on both sides of the ball, we should take Ayton, understanding that he may never get their defensively. Bagley is probably the surest bet to be an offensive star, but also probably the surest bet to struggle defensively. Or we could take Carter, who looks like he'll be solid on both offense and defense.

Defensive anchors are incredibly overrated. They were kind of valuable before the 00’s.

[specialsauce]

I don't think we need to finish with the worst record. I think Memphis will get that. I just don't want to catch Atlanta or Orlando. Orlando has 6 straight games coming up against tankers, so I'm not worried about them.

If we finish 2, we'd have a good shot at a top 3 pick and almost definitely a top 4 pick. 3 teams would have to jump us to drop us to 5. Picking 5th is what I'm afraid of, I don't know who I'd take there if my top 4 are gone.

Most people seem to be settled on a top 3 or 4 already. I have no idea who I would pick after Doncic. Maybe Bagley? I am not the biggest Ayton fan. I saw a lot of him and he never really wow'ed me. He's a zero on defense despite his prodigious athleticism and I don't know the current value of interior scoring when the 2 best teams in the league don't have legit Centers.

Ayton Bagley and Doncic are worlds above the rest of the class in talent. I mean it’s not even close just in regards to production.

[Split T]

There's some real concern that Ayton isn't a very good rim protector and just has an overall poor defensive IQ. He really does remind me a lot of Drummond. Big time rebounder, will finish at the rim, flash some passing skills, but their reputation as a rim protector/defenders > actual production. Ayton is a better shooter than Drummond, so he has that going for him.

Still, every defensive concern about Ayton can be applied to Bagley and then some. Bagley is a little more skilled off the dribble and is more natural a scorer than Ayton. His jump shot is a question mark but he did shoot 38% from 3 this year.

Basically a if we're looking for a defensive anchor, we need to take JJJ or Bamba. If we want someone who could potentially be elite on both sides of the ball, we should take Ayton, understanding that he may never get their defensively. Bagley is probably the surest bet to be an offensive star, but also probably the surest bet to struggle defensively. Or we could take Carter, who looks like he'll be solid on both offense and defense.

Defensive anchors are incredibly overrated. They were kind of valuable before the 00’s.

Gobert is pretty valuable to Utah. Capela let's Houston play a bunch of shooters and maintain a good defense. You need to be elite if all you bring is defense, but JJJ and Bamba both show some offensive potential. Both have issues, JJJ doesn't rebound well enough and Bamba's shot looks iffy to me. I might actually take Carter over both of them.

[specialsauce]

Ok, I am not about to bring Clint Capela into this conversation lol. It’s Clint fucking Capela and we’re talking about drafting a franchise player.

Nobody that’s won the championship in the last ten years has had a franchise player who’s primary skill was “defensive anchor.”

[In2ition]

Ok, I am not about to bring Clint Capela into this conversation lol. It’s Clint f*** Capela and we’re talking about drafting a franchise player.

Nobody that’s won the championship in the last ten years has had a franchise player who’s primary skill was “defensive anchor.”

You're right. That's why I think Robert Williams can be Clint Capela type.

[Split T]

Kevin Garnett with the Celtics? He wasn't just a defensive player, but that was his biggest contribution.

Tyson Chandler was a major piece in the Mavs title.

Duncan was mostly a defensive anchor during the Spurs last title.

This isn't supposed to be an endorsement of JJJ or Bamba, it just seems like you're writing off defense as an important skill.

[specialsauce]

Kevin Garnett with the Celtics? He wasn't just a defensive player, but that was his biggest contribution.

Tyson Chandler was a major piece in the Mavs title.

Duncan was mostly a defensive anchor during the Spurs last title.

This isn't supposed to be an endorsement of JJJ or Bamba, it just seems like you're writing off defense as an important skill.

Come on. None of the guys you mentioned were defensive anchors. They all had tremendous offensive abilities, with the exception of Chandler. If you’re not the first, second, or third best player on the team, you’re not important enough to talk about (Chandler). I’m not looking to draft a Tyson Chandler on the Mavs. I’m looking to draft a Dirk Nowitzki on the Mavs. Or a James Harden on the Rockets, nobody is saying the Rockets are who they are because of Capela. We’re talking about drafting a franchise player to put alongside Booker and we are drafting high enough where that expectation is reality.

The gap between Ayton/Bagley and JJJ is so large on offense that his supposed defensive skills don’t nearly make up for it. He won’t be a top 3 player on a team. He is the second coming of Nerlens Noel with a 3 pointer, if you look at their stats in college they are the same.

[Split T]

Kevin Garnett with the Celtics? He wasn't just a defensive player, but that was his biggest contribution.

Tyson Chandler was a major piece in the Mavs title.

Duncan was mostly a defensive anchor during the Spurs last title.

This isn't supposed to be an endorsement of JJJ or Bamba, it just seems like you're writing off defense as an important skill.

Come on. None of the guys you mentioned were defensive anchors. They all had tremendous offensive abilities, with the exception of Chandler. If you’re not the first, second, or third best player on the team, you’re not important enough to talk about (Chandler). I’m not looking to draft a Tyson Chandler on the Mavs. I’m looking to draft a Dirk Nowitzki on the Mavs. Or a James Harden on the Rockets, nobody is saying the Rockets are who they are because of Capela. We’re talking about drafting a franchise player to put alongside Booker and we are drafting high enough where that expectation is reality.

The gap between Ayton/Bagley and JJJ is so large on offense that his supposed defensive skills don’t nearly make up for it. He won’t be a top 3 player on a team. He is the second coming of Nerlens Noel with a 3 pointer, if you look at their stats in college they are the same.

I'm not advocating for drafting JJJ or Bamba over Ayton/Bagley. I just don't think defensive anchors are incredibly overrated. Houston is the best team in the league right now and they have one. Obviously he's not as important as harden or even cp3, but he's a very important piece. And ya, we'd all love to draft a harden or nowitzki, but there's no guarantee one of those guys is in this draft or that we are even in position to draft one. If there's not a franchise star available, you just have to take the best player. What do you suggest we do if we land 4th and Ayton/Doncic/Bagley are gone?

Also, as much as we think we know how good these players are going to be in the NBA, we are very often wrong. Who thought Donovan Mitchell was going to be the best player from this draft class and a potential star? Who saw potential stardom from Booker when he was in college?

Maybe JJJ gets to the NBA and it turns out Michigan State just didn't know how to utilize him properly. They played him out of position at the 4 and told him to just shoot. Maybe he has more off the dribble game than we think. It's not out of the question, people thought Markkanen was just a shooter, a Ryan Anderson clone, but he's shown more offensive versatility and looks like a solid pick.

Again, I have Ayton/Doncic/Bagley ahead of JJJ/Carter/Bamba/Porter, but I won't be surprised if 5 years from now a player or two from that later group is better than one from the former group.