2018 NBA Draft Lottery

[Superbone]

I want to know who my Dad thinks we should pick.

You and me both Cap. I'm really sad for both of us that our fathers aren't still here to share this historic moment with us.

[UglyTruth]

If Memphis takes Bagley, I would try to acquire Rabb if I'm the Suns. I think he'll be better than Chriss imo.

I still can't believe how far Rabb fell.

Yeah he screwed up staying in school the year before.

[JustWinBaby]

McD's draft history is too harshly rated by Suns fans. Looking each year at who he had available at that particular slot in the draft, he hasn't really whiffed hard since 2013.

2013 - Alex Len at 4th - Selected after: CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Antetokounmpo, Gobert (all selected 10th or later)
2014 - TJ Warren at 14th - Selected after: Jusuf Nurkic, Clint Capela
2015 - Devin Booker at 13th - Selected after: No one better, this was an A+ pick
2016 - Dragan Bender at 4th, Chriss at 8th - Selected after: This was a really weak draft after the 3rd pick. Who is McD kicking himself over? Jamal Murray? Malcolm Brogdon got selected 36th.
2017 - Josh Jackson at 4th - Selected after: Donovan Mitchell (13th) is the only player a head above JJ.

Nice recap:

Maybe I have been too critical of his drafts. I am one of those still holding out hope for both Bender and Chriss. My biggest complaint was Alex Len, however there were a lot of busts before and after Len was taken.

The main reason that I will be excited if we draft Ayton, it will for sure be the last year I will have to watch Alex Len in a Suns uniform. I expect he will not be back anyway.

[UglyTruth]

Also, I can't believe people still believe that "gambling on a Euro" is a thing. That is some pretty regressive s*** right there.

Sorry. Darko and Zarko have left a bad taste in my mouth.

If you’re gonna play that game, what kind of taste did Greg Oden and Hasheem Thabeet leave in your mouth?

Sure Oden had injury issues which Ayton doesn’t yet but they have very similar builds and Ayton could start to develop bad knees and such as well.

[Cap]

Ya'll need to stop with the fantasy of getting Doncic and Ayton. Also, I can't believe people still believe that "gambling on a Euro" is a thing. That is some pretty regressive s*** right there.

Sorry. Darko and Zarko have left a bad taste in my mouth. Look, I'd rather draft a close to sure thing rare find that's a generational talent at 7ft than gamble that a player may or may not pan out in the NBA in a position that is saturated heavily in the NBA with talent.

What about Dirk, Kristaps, Jokic, Manu, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Giannias, Gobert, Vlade, Yao, Hakeem? Stop being ridiculous.

Look no further than Bender. Gambling on a Euro
Is very much a thing. If he played college ball scouts would have torn him apart playing against US college players. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind he would have fallen out of the top 10 at the least.

Now, must euro busts have been big men, but you also have the others like Pablo prigioni, juicyvicious or whatever his name was on the pacers that was supppsed to be a stud, Yaroslav Korolev, Yi Jianlian, Rafael Araujo,

I don’t think he’s being ridiculous at all. It is a legit concern how their talents will translate to a different league against much more physical talent.

Those other guys are mostly transferring from U18 leagues, or impressing in the U18 leagues and then riding the bench for a year in the big leagues before being drafted into the NBA. Luka is playing and dominating at the highest level.

He’s not just the best European prospect ever, he’s also the best European player to came straight to the NBA since Arvydas Sabonis. Only Sabonis was on the downside of his career, while Luka is just getting started.

[carey]

I'm more than willing to debate Doncic vs. Ayton, but to dismiss Doncic outright because he's a Euro is lazy. And honestly I expect better from members of this board who come to talk about NBA basketball every single day.

[Superbone]

I'm more than willing to debate Doncic vs. Ayton, but to dismiss Doncic outright because he's a Euro is lazy. And honestly I expect better from members of this board who come to talk about NBA basketball every single day.

It just doesn't make any sense to lump all European players into the same basket. Every player is different. Why aren't these same people talking about Nowitski and Porzingas?

[Split T]

Or Jokic or Giannis or Gobert. There is plenty of Euro success stories. To discount someone because they are Euro is just lazy. I actually went and tried to figure out last year if Euros fail to meet the expectations of their draft slot anymore than American born players. I'll see if I can find the post.

If you don't know anything about the player because he's a Euro and you never watched him, that's fine. But you have to realize that professional scouts and GM's have plenty of times. They aren't just watching you tube videos like us.

[Split T]

Or Jokic or Giannis or Gobert. There is plenty of Euro success stories. To discount someone because they are Euro is just lazy. I actually went and tried to figure out last year if Euros fail to meet the expectations of their draft slot anymore than American born players. I'll see if I can find the post.

If you don't know anything about the player because he's a Euro and you never watched him, that's fine. But you have to realize that professional scouts and GM's have plenty of times. They aren't just watching you tube videos like us.

So I looked at all 219 players who were drafted since 1998 that did not play high school or college basketball in the United States. So this includes players not just from Europe, but from Africa, Asia, Australia, and South America as well. I compared there expected career win shares based on their draft position to their actual career win shares and lumped them into 8 categories. It was hard to properly rate the newer players based on this formula without excessive projection, so I made 2011 the cutoff and only did some minor projecting on a few players. I ended up with 153 players.

The 8 categories were:

1. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 100 or more. 3 players made this category or 1.9%
2. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 75-100. 2 players made this category or 1.3%
3. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 50-75. 3 players made this category or 1.9%
4. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 25-50. 11 players made this category or 7.1%
5. Players who outperformed their expected win shares by 10-25. 9 players made this category or 5.8%
6. Players within 10 win shares of their expected win shares in either direction. 99 players made this category or 64.7%
7. Players who underperformed by 10-25 win shares. 18 players made this category or 11.7%
8. Players who underperformed by 25 or more win shares. 8 players made this category or 5.2%

So you've got about 28 players out performing their expected win shares by 10 or more and 26 underperforming. Seems to be pretty much in line with what you'd expect.

[Cap]

I'm more than willing to debate Doncic vs. Ayton, but to dismiss Doncic outright because he's a Euro is lazy. And honestly I expect better from members of this board who come to talk about NBA basketball every single day.

It’s a completely ridiculous comparison. None of the other guys were having anywhere near this kind of impact in Europe before coming over. Luka’s from the same continent as those other guys, and the comparison ends there.

[n4th4n]

Ya'll need to stop with the fantasy of getting Doncic and Ayton. Also, I can't believe people still believe that "gambling on a Euro" is a thing. That is some pretty regressive s*** right there.

Sorry. Darko and Zarko have left a bad taste in my mouth. Look, I'd rather draft a close to sure thing rare find that's a generational talent at 7ft than gamble that a player may or may not pan out in the NBA in a position that is saturated heavily in the NBA with talent.

What about Dirk, Kristaps, Jokic, Manu, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Giannias, Gobert, Vlade, Yao, Hakeem? Stop being ridiculous.

Look no further than Bender. Gambling on a Euro
Is very much a thing. If he played college ball scouts would have torn him apart playing against US college players. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind he would have fallen out of the top 10 at the least.

Now, must euro busts have been big men, but you also have the others like Pablo prigioni, juicyvicious or whatever his name was on the pacers that was supppsed to be a stud, Yaroslav Korolev, Yi Jianlian, Rafael Araujo,

I don’t think he’s being ridiculous at all. It is a legit concern how their talents will translate to a different league against much more physical talent.

No, it's completely ridiculous. Picking a college player is just as much of a gamble. Anthony Bennet, Wesley Johnson, Hasheem Thabeet, Ben MacLemore, MKG, Thomas Robinson, Derrick Williams... the list goes on and on and on. Drafting ANY player is a gamble. Drafting a European player is no more of a gamble than drafting anyone else. Stop it.

[n4th4n]

I'm more than willing to debate Doncic vs. Ayton, but to dismiss Doncic outright because he's a Euro is lazy. And honestly I expect better from members of this board who come to talk about NBA basketball every single day.

It's honestly really gross and disappointing to see.

[specialsauce]

I'm more than willing to debate Doncic vs. Ayton, but to dismiss Doncic outright because he's a Euro is lazy. And honestly I expect better from members of this board who come to talk about NBA basketball every single day.

It's honestly really gross and disappointing to see.

Lolllll gross and disappointing.

Way to turn this into a moral argument. Because if I doubt any hype coming from Europe, it must mean that I have a prejudice against foreigners as people. I'm not over here saying build that wall. Chill

[UglyTruth]

I'm more than willing to debate Doncic vs. Ayton, but to dismiss Doncic outright because he's a Euro is lazy. And honestly I expect better from members of this board who come to talk about NBA basketball every single day.

It just doesn't make any sense to lump all European players into the same basket. Every player is different. Why aren't these same people talking about Nowitski and Porzingas?

Because it wouldn’t fit their narrative.

[specialsauce]

Ya'll need to stop with the fantasy of getting Doncic and Ayton. Also, I can't believe people still believe that "gambling on a Euro" is a thing. That is some pretty regressive s*** right there.

Sorry. Darko and Zarko have left a bad taste in my mouth. Look, I'd rather draft a close to sure thing rare find that's a generational talent at 7ft than gamble that a player may or may not pan out in the NBA in a position that is saturated heavily in the NBA with talent.

What about Dirk, Kristaps, Jokic, Manu, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Tony Parker, Giannias, Gobert, Vlade, Yao, Hakeem? Stop being ridiculous.

Look no further than Bender. Gambling on a Euro
Is very much a thing. If he played college ball scouts would have torn him apart playing against US college players. There’s absolutely no doubt in my mind he would have fallen out of the top 10 at the least.

Now, must euro busts have been big men, but you also have the others like Pablo prigioni, juicyvicious or whatever his name was on the pacers that was supppsed to be a stud, Yaroslav Korolev, Yi Jianlian, Rafael Araujo,

I don’t think he’s being ridiculous at all. It is a legit concern how their talents will translate to a different league against much more physical talent.

Those other guys are mostly transferring from U18 leagues, or impressing in the U18 leagues and then riding the bench for a year in the big leagues before being drafted into the NBA. Luka is playing and dominating at the highest level.

He’s not just the best European prospect ever, he’s also the best European player to came straight to the NBA since Arvydas Sabonis. Only Sabonis was on the downside of his career, while Luka is just getting started.

Let's be clear, I am completely on board with Doncic. He is proven at the highest level, he has an attitude that will serve him well unlike Bender, and he is not a big man known for a finesse game. The majority of busts from Europe rather barely played or were soft big men.

On that note, I was completely against Bender.

[EDC]

I think that is just a problem with bigs in general. They look good against smaller players but then enter the league and have to face guys that are stronger and faster than they are.
Bigs have to gain a lot of strength just to get back to the point of being able to pull their post moves against these guys. Not that Len was anything special but he looked like he had post moves in college and we see how uncoordinated he looks trying to post up NBA players (I'm not comparing Ayton to Len).

[Split T]

The good thing about Ayton is even in the nba he won’t face anyone as big/strong/athletic as him

[iLLmatic]

Doncic is a ball player. He's only 18 but if you watch how creativity he is with the ball in his hands he is going to make things happen. When I look at Doncic I see a sure thing, I don't feel the same way about Ayton.

[carey]

The good thing about Ayton is even in the nba he won’t face anyone as big/strong/athletic as him

Howard, Embiid, Towns, Capela? There's even guys in this draft like Robert Williams.

[Split T]

None of those guys have all 3. I think Ayton is the most athletic of that group. My point is that he'll still be elite when it comes to those traits.